Weekly French Covid thread
France has overtaken UK in 1st vaccine doses; a 3rd booster dose for over 65’s and the vulnerable is likely from Sept; cases in the 4th or Delta wave are falling but deaths/acute cases are still rising. 1/12
France has overtaken UK in 1st vaccine doses; a 3rd booster dose for over 65’s and the vulnerable is likely from Sept; cases in the 4th or Delta wave are falling but deaths/acute cases are still rising. 1/12
Another development is that HAS, the French health advisory body, has advised that the Janssen 1-dose vaccine is insufficient. A 2nd Pfizer/Moderna dose is needed. The government is likely to agree – meaning that 800,000 people are no longer considered fully vaxxed. 2/12
How and when the J&J recipients will be recalled is unclear. As of last night, the official Fr figures showed 42,040,493 people has been fully vaccinated – overtaking the UK fully-vaxxed total. That figure will now have to be revised downward by 800,000. 3/12
In terms of 1st jabs, France overhauled the UK total last night, despite a fall in Fr vaccinations in recent weeks. The Fr total of 1st vaxxes is now 47,786,706 – 50,000 more than UK. It seems, however, that Fr will fall just short of its target of 50m by end Aug.
4/12
4/12
Is it fair to compare UK/Fr figures? Some insist not. It’s true that the Fr numbers include nearly 3m 12-17 yr olds as well as 45m adults. The UK figs are almost all adults with some 15/16 yr olds. It’s also true that the rapid UK roll-out WAS preferable to the Fr catch-up. 5/12
All the same the Fr govt deserves credit for getting so many people jabbed in the worlds' most anti-vax country. Circa 11.5m 1st jabs have been given since Macron announced the “health pass” on 12 July. The UK is struggling to reach all 18-30s. In Fr they are 80% 1st vaxxed. 6/12
The great failure of the French vax programme is the over 80s- still only 84.3% 1st vaxxed, compared to 95%+ for the 70 somethings. Efforts are still being made to reach the missing oldies, only a few of whom are actively anti-vax. That should now be a national priority. 7/12
A third booster jab will be offered to the old and vulnerable from mid-Sept. The govt initially wanted only to re-jab the over 80s and the most fragile. The HAS has now recommended that all over 65’s should have a booster jab – of Pfizer or Moderna, not AZ. 8/12
In terms of the 4th wave, cases are falling but acute cases/deaths are rising because of the surge in late July, early Aug. The rolling av. of daily cases – now 20,665 – has fallen for 8 days in a row. Fears that the Delta wave might hit 60,000 seem to have been exaggerated 9/12 
The incidence rate is falling even in Guadeloupe/Martinique, where lockdowns have been imposed. The only metro depts with IR over 400 are now B.du-Rhone 667.2; Vaucluse 477.5; Hérault 469.9; Var 450.6; A.Maritimes 442.6; and Gard 414.4. Most, note, are anti-pass bastions.
10/12
10/12
In terms of acute cases and deaths, the stats are worrying but not calamitous. Deaths are running at 118 a day, up 62% in a week; there are 2,221 people in acute care, up 14%. The health minister|Oliver Véran predicts both will peak in the next week or so. 11/12
Hospital cases are overwhelmingly the non-vaxxed, even though they now represent only 15% of the adult population. See the graph by @Nicolasberrod below. In terms of acute cases for every 10m people, 39 are non-vaxxed, 9 are 1st vaxxed and 3 fully vaxxed.
Hang in there
12/12
Hang in there
12/12
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