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Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Nov 4, 2021 • 19 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X

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𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟰𝟯 '𝟮𝟭

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.

BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.

The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators🧵👇

𝟭𝗮. 𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

𝟭𝗯. 𝗙𝗶𝗯 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1455115142606114822

𝟮. 𝟲𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆

#BTC to peak: 24-29 Dec. 2021

In the past, BTC would peak before the Fed began tapering. Though the Fed begins tapering soon, BTC may not peak this month as the Fed will adjust the tapering pace- loose tightening!

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1455115142606114822

𝟯. 𝗨𝗦 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟬𝟱𝟯)
𝗡𝗼, but this metric is wicking up!

* Please read 2(ii)(e) of pinned tweet for details about this metric to determine BTC topping pattern & whether cycle peak is imminent.

4(i) 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (>𝟳.𝟱): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 2.4*

* The chart pattern of this metric is similar to that in 2013 & looks to be on the verge of breaking out along with #BTC's price.

4(ii) 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

5. 𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 (~𝟰𝟳%): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 54%

6(i) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (>𝟬.𝟬𝟮): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 0.004*

The Reserve Risk chart pattern is similar to that in 2013. If history rhymes, #BTC's price will move up sharply soon.

6(ii) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#BTC is on its way to its cycle peak.

6(ii) 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#Bitcoin is on its way to its cycle peak.

7. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼 (𝗥𝗛𝗥) (>𝟰𝟬𝗞): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 12392*

* RHR is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The RHR chart pattern looks similar to that in 2013. If history rhymes, BTC's price could move up sharply.

𝟴. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗽 𝗛𝗢𝗗𝗟 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀 (𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲):
𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟭

* It looks like RC HODL Waves has entered Wave 2 of the 3-Wave pattern & this will be accompanied by the next leg up in #BTC's bull phase.

9(i) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 1.41

9(i) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (>𝟰): 𝗡𝗼

10/31: 1.41

9(ii) 𝗣𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 (𝟯𝟬-𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗔) (𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝟱): 𝗬𝗲𝘀

#Bitcoin is on its way to its cycle peak.

10. 𝗡𝗨𝗣𝗟 (𝗕𝗹𝘂𝗲): 𝗡𝗼 𝗘𝘂𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮

10/31: 0.62 (Green)*

* This is similar to that when #BTC was on #CTM Wave 2 of the 2013 & 2017 bull phases.

The NUPL chart looks similar to that in 2013 (circled in blue). If history rhymes, BTC's price may move up sharply soon.

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 18, 2022

When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?

1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong
2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction
3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K

1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.

2. BTC's price continues to track its move from Jan. 21- Jul. 21. (areas marked in pink boxes), but could be 5 days shorter in duration.

The current correction is similar to that of last summer & thus could be over at the end of Jan. 2022.

Read 8 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 15, 2022

#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

TLDR:
1. The Dash Board is revamped with the update of the BLX & Top Cap models & the intro. of LGC model

2. 4 models to better gauge peak timing

3. Projected Cycle Peak

Timing: 2nd-3rd Qtr. 2022
Price: $100K-$200K
Hopium Price: $320K

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1481721722093334528

1a/ The #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board is revamped with the update of the Top Cap & BLX Models.

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1481721722093334528

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1478776021008539649

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1480644056619237380

1b/ The #BTC LGC (Logarithmic Growth Curves) model is introduced to gauge cycle peak timing & cycle peak price taking into account the growth pattern of BTC.

https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1480644056619237380

Read 12 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 12, 2022

#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?

TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022

If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022

1a/ Parallel channel breakout

If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.

Strong resistance at $46K.

1b/ If #BTC fails to break out of the channel, it'd retest the $40K-$41K resistance again before resuming up. Breaching that, it'd fall between $32K & $37K.

As the bull phase is still intact, it shouldn't fall below (Wave 2= $29.2K*).

* Not Elliott Wave count

Read 6 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 10, 2022

@TechDev_52

The following #BTC peak model with time-based Fib is inspired by @TechDev_52 who combines BTC log growth curves with Fib levels on a 2-week BTC chart.

TLDR:
BTC Cycle Peak
Price:
- High: $180K
- Middle: $120K
- Low: $96K
Time: 2nd Qtr. '22

2.618 Fib: $370K (1st Qtr. '24)?

1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDev’s chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.

2a/ To derive the timing of the cycle peak, time-based Fib zones are drawn from mid-cycle correction to the peak of the impulse move after that correction at or above the 1.618 log Fib level.

In past cycles, the peak occurred right between time-based 1.618 Fib & 2 Fib zones.

Read 8 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 6, 2022

Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?

TLDR:
1. US10Y: Bullish
2. BTC Futures: Bullish
3. BTC Options Bullish
4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K

1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.

1b/ The Fed will probably quicken the pace of tapering & raise rates sooner, but will likely allow their treasuries holdings to mature (no quantitative tightening or shrinking of B/S).

As long as the US economy is growing, a modest rate hike won't crash the markets.

Read 10 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

Jan 5, 2022

UPDATE: BLX Cycle Peak Model

#BTC again closed below the arc of the BLX model on 12/31/21 so that invalidated 1/9/22 & $350K peak predictions.

Started afresh, fixed model & found 2 numbers: 608 & 2191.

TLDR:
1. Cycle Peak Price
- $325K (Best case)
- $95K-$155K (Base case)
👇

TLDR (Cont...)

2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022
3. Model points to lengthening of cycle
4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur

1/ The fact that #BTC prices closed below the arc of the original BLX model in 2 consecutive months means that something is wrong either in the model or bull phase is over.

I don't think the cycle peak is in so I started anew. I used parallel channels to reconstruct the model.

Read 17 tweets

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