Thread by @KellerZoe

#COP26 Coal consigned to history. China stands isolated: Xie Zhenhua, silent so far, might still have a big surprise. According to the IEA, the pledges so far bring the world temperature trajectory to 1.8 degrees: a miracle.

— thread from AEP's article.
telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…

The floodgates have broken: developing diehard coal nations have been lining up to forswear coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels. 4 of the biggest East Asia coal emitters have signed the pledge to abandon new projects and shut down existing plants far earlier than anybody expected.

“It’s a massive deal. The whole region is turning around and this puts the screws on China to do more,” said Dave Jones (anti-coal group Ember). “The big surprises are Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines”

“These were countries that were planning an aggressive expansion of coal and now they are on the list. So is South Korea, which is the 5th biggest coal user in the world. We never thought we’d see this in Glasgow,” he said.

Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Egypt, Morocco, Ukraine, Poland, Chile, Zambia, and Cote d’Ivoire, among others, have signed the Global Coal to Clean Power Statement, vowing never again to issue new coal permits. ukcop26.org/global-coal-to…

It commits rich states to shut down existing plants by the 2030s and halt any construction underway. Poorer states have until the 2040s, but most will be well on the way years earlier.

Not much remains of the ‘fuel poverty’ canard that developing economies need coal for their catch-up growth. They have looked at the numbers and concluded otherwise.

It hardly matters anymore whether or not Australia’s Scott Morrison joins the pact: there will not be much of a global market for his thermal coal exports in a few years. He might as well avoid all the political trouble and espouse virtue now.

“The end of coal is in sight. We’re choking off global financing and consigning coal to history,” said @AlokSharma_RDG. Deforestation and methane leakage were low-hanging fruit, both confronted head-on in the first days.

But the coal coup is a political stunner, fruit of months of skilful diplomacy and creative forms of finance that perhaps only the City of London could have pulled off.

Pakistan’s climate chief Malik Aslam was effusive in his praise, saying the British had pulled an impossible rabbit out of the hat, a view widely shared among officials from the developing world at this #COP26.

The phase-out model for the world is the Just Energy Transition Partnership with South Africa, an $8.5 billion package unveiled in Glasgow with the backing of the US, UK, and the EU.

South Africa relies on coal for 87% of its electricity and 74% of its primary energy. Its power behemoth Eskom is not only near bankruptcy but just about the dirtiest polluter on the planet. The problem has long seemed intractable.

From this grim starting point, the country has committed to going all the way to an UN-approved ‘1.5-degree’ climate path as soon as 2030. Eskom will retire up to 12GW of coal, using a mix of grants and loans to re-employ the workforce and switch the whole system to renewables.

Indonesia could be next in line for this formula. It is planning to shut 5.5GW of coal plants over the next 8 years if the world helps to fund the wind, solar, and geothermal needed to replace them.

It is pressing ahead against entrenched vested interests, even though it mines coal in abundance and relies on the fuel for 65% of its energy. The Philippines is eyeing the closure of 10 out of its 28 coal plants.

The Asian Development Bank has teamed up with HSBC, Citigroup, and others to help these states, eyeing a ‘bad bank’ resolution mechanism to take the coal plants off their hands.

India's Modi has not signed on coal but has committed to 500GW of renewables by 2030, with a target of 50%. “We’re not worried about rising coal in India anymore: they are not going to need it. The story is how quickly they are going to retire plants,” said Ember’s Mr Jones.

The US is still the world’s 3rd biggest coal burner but the sector is in terminal run-off: uninsurable, unable to raise funds at market rates, and now facing Biden’s renewable tsunami, as well as regulatory squeeze by the Environmental Protection Agency. It is basically over.

China is the last big hold-out. Global Energy Monitor says it commissioned 38 GW of new coal in 2020, 3x the rest of the world, 85% of all plants under development. China also accounts for 28% of global emissions, significantly more per capita than the UK and rising fast.

The world is not going to tolerate this for long. China is isolated in Glasgow. Its bid to break US dominance and court global favour with its brand of post-Western Confucian leadership is going nowhere unless it bites the bullet on coal.

China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has been strangely silent at COP26 so far. It is hard to believe that he will leave without offering something. There may yet be a big surprise.

But much has already been accomplished. “Before this COP there was a lot of scepticism whether or not it would deliver anything,” said Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.

“But my colleagues calculate that, if all the pledges over the last few days are implemented, including methane, the world temperature increase could be limited to 1.8 degrees. This is an achievement to celebrate,” he said. It is almost a miracle.