Digital Bridge is finalizing a huge transformation from a stale legacy real estate biz to the best owner of digital infrastructure assets this side of $BYTE Index.

$DBRG = combo of Private Equity + Directly Held Digital Infra: data centers, fiber, towers, & more.

#CotD
🧵👇
1/
Led by Marc Ganzi and Ben Jenkins, $DBRG is poised to grow assets for years.

They built DBRG as an independent biz, then merged it into Colony Capital - taking over the combinedco. They sold all of CLNY's legacy real estate, positioning DBRG as THE pureplay dig infra holdco.

2/
At its core, $DBRG is a Private Equity biz, raising large PE funds that target dig infra. Key holdings incl Zayo & Vantage Data Centers. It also uses co-invest funds and bal sheet capital for large takeouts. It is expanding into other alternative investments (eg, credit & HF).
3/
This combination of raising PE-style GP funds ("Investment Management") + Balance Sheet investing ("Operating") differentiates Digital Bridge and gives it the ability to combine two incredible economic models together.

$DBRG is a leader in digital infra investing ( $BYTE 👀).
4/
From a standing start 7 years ago, Marc & Ben built Digital Bridge into a collection of world-class digital infra assets: towers, wifi, fiber, data centers, edge infra & more.

Marc previously built, ran, & sold a leading towerco.

Ben was a Senior Partner at Blackstone ($BX).
5/
Imagine what Digital Bridge might become in the next 10 yrs.

To serve the demand for reliable, fast, ubiquitous internet, huge investments in digital infra are required. $DBRG will play a key role - acquiring and building assets to meet this demand, raising more $$ to do it.

6/
The value creation opp in Digital Infra is breathtaking. It's the 21st Century's Class-A real estate, fueled by growth from high-quality tenants.

As we digitize everything (including the actual world - Zuck?), our need for physical assets to handle that will grow as well.

7/
All cos have plenty of risks, including $DBRG. examples include:
- Is it growing too fast?
- Hungry, aggressive management can cut both ways...
- It wants infra multiples on its Operating assets, but if it has to sell and reinvest, does it deserve them?

8/
Note:
I never intend Tweets as investment advice. This is meant as a basic, high-level overview of what $DBRG does and how one might begin to look at the business.

-End-

Please Like, Follow, & RT if you find these useful - 4 down, 1 to go! 🤸‍♂️🤸‍♀️

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More from @compound248

3 Nov
#CotD #3 - American Tower

Operating 214k cell towers (43k US + Canada), $AMT is the world's largest tower owner. Its revenue has grown w/ mobile data usage. As this trend persists, & w/ 5G on the horizon, AMT may grow for years to come, like other $BYTE Index members.

1/x🧵👇👇
$AMT exhibits:

• Global scale
• Stable growth
• Durable, strong cash flow
• Levered capital returns

These attractive features, coupled with secular growth trends around mobile data consumption, have helped drive a 22% CAGR over the past ten years!! (7.3x your $)

2/
Secular growth trends remain.

Recent organic rev growth has been mid-single digits and AFFO (cash flow) closer to 10%.

Rev. is primarily from LONG-term leases w/ huge mobile cos (eg, AT&T). These have inflation escalators and only a modest portion face renewal risk each yr.

3/
Read 11 tweets
2 Nov
1/x

Megacable - #CotD 2:5

With 4.1 mm unique subs (incl 3.75 mm broadband), Megacable is Mexico's #2 cableco. It's an example of a non-US $BYTE Index holding in last-mile connectivity.

High-Single Digits % Sub Growth + A Few % Price = Secular Growth near 10% p.a.

🧵👇
EBITDA margins for non-US cablecos are often higher than in the US, as the cost pressure of video is less acute.

OTOH, ongoing capital intensity also tends to be higher, esp. for EM-based cos actively doing new-builds.

Mega:
50% EBITDA Margins and 30%+ CapEx as % Revenue.
2/
Given "EM risk" & higher capital intensity, Mega trades at a large discount to US comps:
<4.5x 2021E EV/EBITDA.

US cablecos are 8-12x and often carry 4-5x in debt! Compare to Mega's Net Debt/EBITDA @ 0.6x.

When Mega slows its growth CapEx phase, might its FCF margin expand?
3/
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
#CotD - $EQIX
I'm writing about 5 digital infra cos in 5 days.

1: Equinix is a global Data Center leader. It epitomizes the compelling nature of digital infra, like those in the $BYTE Index.
• Huge Growing TAM
• Global
• High-Quality Assets
• Growth & Profitablty

🧵👇👇
1/x ImageImage
Huge Growing TAM:

Using data requires either internet access (off-premises) or local storage (your device, local server).

Off-premises data comes from Data Centers (video, SaaS, cloud, social). EQIX is a huge Data Center owner, selling into the inexorable digitization trend.
2/ Image
Global:
$EQIX is one of the largest Data Center cos, w/ 230 DCs globally.

It's a "1 stop shop" for enterprises that want to deploy cloud anywhere. Other DCs may focus on "hyperscale" cloud providers (FAANG). EQIX has HCPs but also a broader enterprise focus, w/ >10k clients.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
22 Oct
Tweeps just announced that Recorded Spaces is imminent AND easily listening to Recorded Spaces will come with it.

(Small rollout at first, then expanding quickly after.)

Summary: Twitter’s entree into podcasting will be native audio…easy to see where it goes from here.

$TWTR
Another box to check on my checklist:
The implication is asynchronous audio is coming to TWTR, obviously including podcasts.

Recorded audio is a new surface for ADVERTISING. Inserting ads into recorded playbacks, where TWTR shares revenue with Creators…IFF they’re active professionals on Twitter (eg Super Follows).
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
AmEx ($AXP) reported Q3. Bellweather for consumption & travel

• TOTAL spend volume passed 2019
• Global Travel & Entrtnmnt still off (will hit 80% of 2019 in Q4)
• Loan balances keep paying down (people reducing debt)
• Gen Z & Millnls biz up huge
• Perfmnc marketing💪

1/x
Look at Millnnils & GenZ. 70% of new platinum adds in this demo.👇

Part of this is aging into the product.

But also performance marketing combined w/ rewards positioning of AmEx cards. AmEx has unmatched travel & "experience" rewards + superior online/digital self-service.

2/x
Large & Global Corp spending - which is heavily influenced by business travel (and meals, client-facing events, etc.) - still down massively.

W/r/t travel:
- US is 80%+ of 2019
- Int'l still down by 50%

AmEx is becoming more and more of a consumer & SMB spend product.

3/x
Read 7 tweets
21 Oct
Below I pitch a $DWAC / Trump-SPAC bull case.

Getting a social platform off the ground is very doable. Getting a few million users is also very doable.

TRUTH likely needs an ad model + a subscription tier.

So what might the numbers look like if we give TRUTH credit?
🧵👇

1/x
If TRUTH is only extreme Trump fans, substantial ad monetization will be hard.

BUT let's assume TRUTH pulls it off reasonably well:

10mm DAUs

Bifurcating a subscription tier is also not easy (see Twitter), but let's assume a *very* strong 10% free-to-pay conversion.

2/x
Bull case on *just* TRUMP Social:

• 10mm DAUs
• Ad ARPU of $3/m
• 1mm paid subs (10% free-to-pay conversion)
• Subs net ARPU of $5/m

(10 x $3 x 12) + (1 x $5 x 12) = $420mm of revenue
40% EBITDA margins = $168mm EBITDA

10x Revenue or 25x EBITDA =
$4.2B EV

Not bad.

3/x
Read 8 tweets

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