Digital Bridge is finalizing a huge transformation from a stale legacy real estate biz to the best owner of digital infrastructure assets this side of $BYTE Index.
$DBRG = combo of Private Equity + Directly Held Digital Infra: data centers, fiber, towers, & more.
Led by Marc Ganzi and Ben Jenkins, $DBRG is poised to grow assets for years.
They built DBRG as an independent biz, then merged it into Colony Capital - taking over the combinedco. They sold all of CLNY's legacy real estate, positioning DBRG as THE pureplay dig infra holdco.
2/
At its core, $DBRG is a Private Equity biz, raising large PE funds that target dig infra. Key holdings incl Zayo & Vantage Data Centers. It also uses co-invest funds and bal sheet capital for large takeouts. It is expanding into other alternative investments (eg, credit & HF). 3/
This combination of raising PE-style GP funds ("Investment Management") + Balance Sheet investing ("Operating") differentiates Digital Bridge and gives it the ability to combine two incredible economic models together.
$DBRG is a leader in digital infra investing ( $BYTE 👀). 4/
From a standing start 7 years ago, Marc & Ben built Digital Bridge into a collection of world-class digital infra assets: towers, wifi, fiber, data centers, edge infra & more.
Marc previously built, ran, & sold a leading towerco.
Ben was a Senior Partner at Blackstone ($BX). 5/
Imagine what Digital Bridge might become in the next 10 yrs.
To serve the demand for reliable, fast, ubiquitous internet, huge investments in digital infra are required. $DBRG will play a key role - acquiring and building assets to meet this demand, raising more $$ to do it.
6/
The value creation opp in Digital Infra is breathtaking. It's the 21st Century's Class-A real estate, fueled by growth from high-quality tenants.
As we digitize everything (including the actual world - Zuck?), our need for physical assets to handle that will grow as well.
7/
All cos have plenty of risks, including $DBRG. examples include:
- Is it growing too fast?
- Hungry, aggressive management can cut both ways...
- It wants infra multiples on its Operating assets, but if it has to sell and reinvest, does it deserve them?
8/
Note:
I never intend Tweets as investment advice. This is meant as a basic, high-level overview of what $DBRG does and how one might begin to look at the business.
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Operating 214k cell towers (43k US + Canada), $AMT is the world's largest tower owner. Its revenue has grown w/ mobile data usage. As this trend persists, & w/ 5G on the horizon, AMT may grow for years to come, like other $BYTE Index members.
1/x🧵👇👇
$AMT exhibits:
• Global scale
• Stable growth
• Durable, strong cash flow
• Levered capital returns
These attractive features, coupled with secular growth trends around mobile data consumption, have helped drive a 22% CAGR over the past ten years!! (7.3x your $)
2/
Secular growth trends remain.
Recent organic rev growth has been mid-single digits and AFFO (cash flow) closer to 10%.
Rev. is primarily from LONG-term leases w/ huge mobile cos (eg, AT&T). These have inflation escalators and only a modest portion face renewal risk each yr.
With 4.1 mm unique subs (incl 3.75 mm broadband), Megacable is Mexico's #2 cableco. It's an example of a non-US $BYTE Index holding in last-mile connectivity.
High-Single Digits % Sub Growth + A Few % Price = Secular Growth near 10% p.a.
🧵👇
EBITDA margins for non-US cablecos are often higher than in the US, as the cost pressure of video is less acute.
OTOH, ongoing capital intensity also tends to be higher, esp. for EM-based cos actively doing new-builds.
Mega:
50% EBITDA Margins and 30%+ CapEx as % Revenue.
2/
Given "EM risk" & higher capital intensity, Mega trades at a large discount to US comps:
<4.5x 2021E EV/EBITDA.
US cablecos are 8-12x and often carry 4-5x in debt! Compare to Mega's Net Debt/EBITDA @ 0.6x.
When Mega slows its growth CapEx phase, might its FCF margin expand?
3/
#CotD - $EQIX
I'm writing about 5 digital infra cos in 5 days.
1: Equinix is a global Data Center leader. It epitomizes the compelling nature of digital infra, like those in the $BYTE Index.
• Huge Growing TAM
• Global
• High-Quality Assets
• Growth & Profitablty
🧵👇👇 1/x
Huge Growing TAM:
Using data requires either internet access (off-premises) or local storage (your device, local server).
Off-premises data comes from Data Centers (video, SaaS, cloud, social). EQIX is a huge Data Center owner, selling into the inexorable digitization trend. 2/
Global:
$EQIX is one of the largest Data Center cos, w/ 230 DCs globally.
It's a "1 stop shop" for enterprises that want to deploy cloud anywhere. Other DCs may focus on "hyperscale" cloud providers (FAANG). EQIX has HCPs but also a broader enterprise focus, w/ >10k clients.
Tweeps just announced that Recorded Spaces is imminent AND easily listening to Recorded Spaces will come with it.
(Small rollout at first, then expanding quickly after.)
Summary: Twitter’s entree into podcasting will be native audio…easy to see where it goes from here.
$TWTR
Another box to check on my checklist:
The implication is asynchronous audio is coming to TWTR, obviously including podcasts.
Recorded audio is a new surface for ADVERTISING. Inserting ads into recorded playbacks, where TWTR shares revenue with Creators…IFF they’re active professionals on Twitter (eg Super Follows).
AmEx ($AXP) reported Q3. Bellweather for consumption & travel
• TOTAL spend volume passed 2019
• Global Travel & Entrtnmnt still off (will hit 80% of 2019 in Q4)
• Loan balances keep paying down (people reducing debt)
• Gen Z & Millnls biz up huge
• Perfmnc marketing💪
1/x
Look at Millnnils & GenZ. 70% of new platinum adds in this demo.👇
Part of this is aging into the product.
But also performance marketing combined w/ rewards positioning of AmEx cards. AmEx has unmatched travel & "experience" rewards + superior online/digital self-service.
2/x
Large & Global Corp spending - which is heavily influenced by business travel (and meals, client-facing events, etc.) - still down massively.
W/r/t travel:
- US is 80%+ of 2019
- Int'l still down by 50%
AmEx is becoming more and more of a consumer & SMB spend product.