Tweeps just announced that Recorded Spaces is imminent AND easily listening to Recorded Spaces will come with it.

(Small rollout at first, then expanding quickly after.)

Summary: Twitter’s entree into podcasting will be native audio…easy to see where it goes from here.

$TWTR
Another box to check on my checklist:
The implication is asynchronous audio is coming to TWTR, obviously including podcasts.

Recorded audio is a new surface for ADVERTISING. Inserting ads into recorded playbacks, where TWTR shares revenue with Creators…IFF they’re active professionals on Twitter (eg Super Follows).
Recorded audio is truly a new surface area for ads for Twitter.

Huge possibilities.

And it will launch with proprietary UGC audio (Spaces). Very unique versus just another me too podcasting app.

If done well, recorded audio pries open massive new frontiers for Twitter usage/$.

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More from @compound248

22 Oct
AmEx ($AXP) reported Q3. Bellweather for consumption & travel

• TOTAL spend volume passed 2019
• Global Travel & Entrtnmnt still off (will hit 80% of 2019 in Q4)
• Loan balances keep paying down (people reducing debt)
• Gen Z & Millnls biz up huge
• Perfmnc marketing💪

1/x
Look at Millnnils & GenZ. 70% of new platinum adds in this demo.👇

Part of this is aging into the product.

But also performance marketing combined w/ rewards positioning of AmEx cards. AmEx has unmatched travel & "experience" rewards + superior online/digital self-service.

2/x
Large & Global Corp spending - which is heavily influenced by business travel (and meals, client-facing events, etc.) - still down massively.

W/r/t travel:
- US is 80%+ of 2019
- Int'l still down by 50%

AmEx is becoming more and more of a consumer & SMB spend product.

3/x
Read 7 tweets
21 Oct
Below I pitch a $DWAC / Trump-SPAC bull case.

Getting a social platform off the ground is very doable. Getting a few million users is also very doable.

TRUTH likely needs an ad model + a subscription tier.

So what might the numbers look like if we give TRUTH credit?
🧵👇

1/x
If TRUTH is only extreme Trump fans, substantial ad monetization will be hard.

BUT let's assume TRUTH pulls it off reasonably well:

10mm DAUs

Bifurcating a subscription tier is also not easy (see Twitter), but let's assume a *very* strong 10% free-to-pay conversion.

2/x
Bull case on *just* TRUMP Social:

• 10mm DAUs
• Ad ARPU of $3/m
• 1mm paid subs (10% free-to-pay conversion)
• Subs net ARPU of $5/m

(10 x $3 x 12) + (1 x $5 x 12) = $420mm of revenue
40% EBITDA margins = $168mm EBITDA

10x Revenue or 25x EBITDA =
$4.2B EV

Not bad.

3/x
Read 8 tweets
21 Oct
Great long? Or greatest long?

The Trump / $DWAC TAM is…pretty big.

If I’m doing my math right, DWAC is easily a trillion market cap by mid-2022.

I mean, just look. At. That. TAM!

(This is a real slide from the TMTG (Trump Media & Trch Group) deck)
It’s huge. The hugest.
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
Ok - this Trump : $DWAC SPAC is the greatest shit ever.

The DWAC CEO has an address in Wuhan, Hubei 🇨🇳 ! (No joke)

The CFO is a CURRENT congressman in Brazil.🇧🇷

The Trump TRUST Social product doesn’t even exist. Wtf

Can you imagine the insider selling when the lockup expires?
The $DWAC CEO’s Wuhan-based SPAC (you can’t make this shit up), Yunhong International, just had a failed merger.

Lol
Read 7 tweets
2 Mar
Altice USA ($ATUS) CEO Goei with an extensive @CNBC interview.

Q: Will the cable TV bundle go away?
A: Yes.

Q: Fixed/mobile convergence in US?
A: Yes. Inevitable.

Q: Fiber vs cable?
A: The world will demand fiber.

cnbc.com/video/2021/03/…
TLDR:
$TMUS should merge with a cableco. Dexter can even picture Comcast and $VZ merging.

Altice would love to buy more cable assets, but very little has been for sale. Small purchase this week.

10%+ eq FCF yields & 3% cost of debt: expect us to keep buying back shares.

2/
Cablecos don’t need to bundle video. You end up hating us, because we have to pass through content price increases that $DIS forces on us. That leads to frustration & customer calls.

Let’s give you an awesome connection and easy tools to assemble & search content ala carte.

3/
Read 6 tweets
28 Feb
Legend, John Malone 🐐💎, in an hour-long video pod w/ Aryeh Bourkoff (TMT i-banker extraordinaire).

Take a trip through JM’s professional history (including when he & Buffett couldn’t understand how this kid Bill Gates’ little business had a moat).😱

1/
He and Buffett passed on investing in $MSFT’s IPO.

The second 30min talks about our modern times, and the business and technology environment.

He is a man who L❤️VES what he does.

He’s curious, smart, hungry, engaging. He knows his areas of competence.

Some lessons:
👇👇
- The value of surrounding yourself w/ quality people

- Trusting quality people to be great

- Form hypothesis first, then look at the data. Accept that feedback and hone your intuition

- Even if you’re right about the direction of the future, you’ll be wrong about the details
Read 5 tweets

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