1/ Would chips have been in short supply right now even without pandemic?

Software is eating the chips!

"In the second quarter of 2021, the latest for which data are available, the semiconductor industry sold more chips than at any point in history." wsj.com/articles/manuf…
2/ Chip manufacturing capacity must catch up with demand that is accelerating in order for the supply shortage to be reduced.

Part of the solution will inevitably be product redesign that relies less on cheap older chips (eg, 28 nanometer level) and better software solutions.
3/ I think I've been in the top one percent of understanding the power of software, and all my life I've underestimated it. Never a year passes that I don't get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.

Everyone else has too. No exceptions.

Computer of Wheels (COW)
4/ 300 TB of data generated a year by a mobile device is non small. It will continue to grow. The bogey is moving. tuxera.com/blog/autonomou…
5/ Roelof Botha: "There are about 25 million people on the planet who write software for a living. Whenever you can deliver technology or products that help those developers become more productive, it has a massive force multiplier effect on the world." joincolossus.com/episodes/66371…

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More from @trengriffin

5 Nov
1/ "When Motorola visited us, prepared to make a presentation with an elaborate slide show, Craig McCAw said, “Put away the slides and just discuss your proposal,” completely unsettling them and, not incidentally, seizing the upper hand."

That's Craig!
amazon.com/Flywheels-Citi…
2/ "After a meeting at AT&T’s Bell Labs in New Jersey, Craig McCaw led us on an unplanned tour around the building, barging into laboratories and asking scientists to explain the projects they were working on. AT&T executives trailed behind, not knowing what to do."

Classic!
3/ "Craig had an irreverent management style. At banquets, he was prone to lobbing dinner rolls. In the office, he might suddenly launch a squirt-gun attack. Many of us kept our own, loaded and ready behind our desks to fight back."

True! Also: Nerf gun attacks/counterattacks.
Read 10 tweets
5 Nov
1/ The birth of a commercial Internet in 1993,coincided with the start of what I call my "miracle year." In his new book Tom Alberg tells the story of Jeff Bezos convincing him to invest in the Amazon seed round. It's a great story. I was in the building. amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B095DX…
2/ When Bezos first met with Alberg McCaw Cellular's sale to AT&T was in process. Tom's office was upstairs and I was on the first floor. Tom was on the board of our startup at the time. When Jeff and Tom met them second time we were both in a new building where Craig had moved.
3/ Tom Alberg tells the story of Jeff Bezos working hard to raise Amazon's $1M seed round at a level of detail I've never seen or heard before. Tom describes Jeff's projections and his rationale for investing. I love great stories, but this one is special.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-on-…
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
The future is a probability distribution.

The global chip supply set of issues is multiple complex adaptive systems interacting (AKA a lollapalooza). Solutions for some firms include product redesign.

Experts who predict a specific date aren't experts. wsj.com/articles/globa…
"As of October, times for chip deliveries have ballooned to 22 weeks. It is longer for the scarcest parts: 25 weeks for power-management components and 38 weeks for the microcontrollers the auto industry needs."

Both uncertainty and unknown unknowns are present. Complexity.
"Some buyers trying to place new orders are getting delivery dates in 2024... The smartphone industry will grow by just 6% year-over-year, or half the initial forecast from earlier this year, because of chip woes, according to Counterpoint Research."

Complexity is increasing.
Read 5 tweets
31 Oct
1/ "In the second quarter, McDonald's said its prices were up by 6% compared to 2020. In the latest earnings call, executives confirmed they anticipate the increase to stay at that level for the rest of the year." eatthis.com/news-mcdonalds…
2/"Employee wages at McDonald's have been steadily increasing this year, with a total increase of about 10% so far in 2021. At company-owned stores, wages are up a 15%."

amp.ft.com/content/b53a99…
3/ "Costco has raised its minimum U.S. wage to $17 an hour, and Starbucks will raise its starting pay to $15 an hour. As of August, retailers had 1.2 million unfilled jobs, while restaurants and hotels had 1.5 million." npr.org/2021/10/28/104…
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
Someone asked me a history question about Microsoft tonight and I dug out this paper fact sheet from my files to give them an answer.

My first conversation with Bill about Microsoft was in the summer of 1980.

Microsoft sales in 1980 were $8 million. 40 employees at year end. Image
Can you name everyone in this picture? What date was it taken? Image
Answer: BOOP (Bill and the Office of the President) Frank Gaudette is next to Mike Maples. 1992.…rdcoresoftware.learningbyshipping.com/p/018-microsof…
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
What business is this? Image
Clue: Image
Another clue: Image
Read 4 tweets

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