The future is a probability distribution.
The global chip supply set of issues is multiple complex adaptive systems interacting (AKA a lollapalooza). Solutions for some firms include product redesign.
Experts who predict a specific date aren't experts. wsj.com/articles/globa…
The global chip supply set of issues is multiple complex adaptive systems interacting (AKA a lollapalooza). Solutions for some firms include product redesign.
Experts who predict a specific date aren't experts. wsj.com/articles/globa…
"As of October, times for chip deliveries have ballooned to 22 weeks. It is longer for the scarcest parts: 25 weeks for power-management components and 38 weeks for the microcontrollers the auto industry needs."
Both uncertainty and unknown unknowns are present. Complexity.
Both uncertainty and unknown unknowns are present. Complexity.
"Some buyers trying to place new orders are getting delivery dates in 2024... The smartphone industry will grow by just 6% year-over-year, or half the initial forecast from earlier this year, because of chip woes, according to Counterpoint Research."
Complexity is increasing.
Complexity is increasing.
Complexity: "Sometimes the system will settle to an equilibrium, sometimes it may not: it might show perpetually novel behavior, or new phenomena that don't appear in steady state." Brian Arthur
Consequences of consequences have consequences and so on.
sites.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/comp…
Consequences of consequences have consequences and so on.
sites.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/comp…
Backhoes and other actions that require manipulating atoms that make chip fabs don't obey Moore's law. Demand grows faster than Moore's law because of the power of software to create new value.
Significant software redesign is an inevitable workaround. abovethecrowd.com/1996/10/21/bac…
Significant software redesign is an inevitable workaround. abovethecrowd.com/1996/10/21/bac…
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