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Tren Griffin Profile picture
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26 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
What business is this? Image
Clue: Image
Another clue: Image
4/ Image

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
24 Oct
1/ This acquisition worked out pretty good.

"Microsoft, moving to solidify its dominant position in the market for software for the popular Apple Macintosh personal computer, on Thursday acquired Forethought Inc. of Sunnyvale, Calif., for $14 Milton." latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
2/ JULY 31, 1987: "Microsoft has been especially successful at penetrating the Macintosh market where, according to the research firm InfoCorp, Microsoft publishes the three top-selling business programs."

blog.zamzar.com/2016/06/10/dea…
3/ "Microsoft is the company that made the first commitment to the Mac.  It has invested the most in the Mac. Our Mac products do super well.” MacWeek, January 31, 1994

“Macintosh has a bright future.”
Letter to Spindler,  April, 1995

Bill Gates
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
23 Oct
2/ What business is this?
1/ Clue
3/ What type of business is able to go public spending ~ 50% of revenue on sales and marketing?

Is that gross margin typical of this type of business?

Do G&A and R&D match the usual and customary profile?

Do you understand the unit economics?

What are churn and CAC?
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ "You sometimes hear an entrepreneur say: ‘Oh, we’ll just make it viral.’  As if virality is something you can choose to add in after the product is baked – like a spell checker. If virality was easy, there would be no advertising industry.” Josh Kopelman.
2/ "Virality is something that has to be engineered from the beginning…and it’s harder to create virality than it is to create a good product.  That’s why we often see good products with poor virality, and poor products with good virality." Josh Kopelman.
3/ "Most viral acquisition is built around incentives. Users are incentivized either explicitly (with a clear dangling carrot) or implicitly (through product mechanics) to invite other users.” Sangeet Paul Choudary.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ Question: What can you develop by looking at a lot of financial statements for different companies?

Why does Tren often ask on Twitter:

What company is this?

Answer: Pattern recognition can be developed using an outside view via base rates. research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?langua…
2/ Using the outside view requires finding and applying an appropriate reference class, or base rate. The more businesses you learn about, the more you improve your probability distribution of outcomes.

Goal: Find a gap between what is priced into a stock and likely reality.
3/ Example: Assume SaaS company X reveals only partial data about unit economics. X provides no data to investors on churn or CAC. An investor with the right reference class (data about similar businesses) will be more able to spot a mis-priced opportunity. Pattern recognition!
Read 6 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ "An orbital bombardment system is essentially "a space shuttle, with a nuclear weapon into the cargo bay, and no landing gear."

It isn't new. The ways to defend against it must be new. But fully defending against it isn't realistic for any nation.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/18/hyp…
2/ Existing existing missile defense systems can’t stop all incoming missiles with nuclear payloads possessed by China, Russia or the US even now.

Low earth orbit satellites with sensors in polar orbit are the new early warning systems for a: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractiona…
3. "Will you be disappointed if the nuclear missiles don’t come from the North Pole, like Santa? The US with more than a thousand nuclear weapons, will avenge your family either way. However, it’s crazy to base U.S. security on the threat of mutual annihilation forever."
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
19 Oct
1/ Simba: "Why isn't the 'sit on you ass' investing style not more popular?"

Mufasa: "Because it is hard for anyone to earn management fees on a portfolio of less then ten stocks that rarely changes. As I said before, if you show me the incentives, I will show you the outcome.
2/ Simba: "Is sit on your ass investing the only way to invest successfully?

Mufasa: "No. My standard prescription for the know-nothing investor with a long-term time horizon is a low fee index fund. Less than 10% of stock market investors can beat an index after fees."
3/ Simba: "Index fund investors seem to have more free time to do things like going on hikes and playing golf."

Mufasa: "Of course they do. But they are not earning investment management fees while they are playing golf, like active managers that closet index their portfolios.
Read 4 tweets

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