Oct to November Portfolio Holdings Update:

P-1 (Core) and P-2 (Mgmd).

1/n: I provide all my company & portfolio commentary from the past month in the thread below:
2/This month was one of my best!

Portfolio 1-Core
+ Net New Buys: $DLO
+ Added: $AFRM, $CFLT (Based on Q3)
+ Sells: $NET
+ Trims: $UPWK (Based on Q3 ER)

Portfolio 2-Mgmd:
+ Net New Buy: $RILY, $COIN (I'll explain!)
+ Trimmed: $LC, $ARCB & $SI (Explosive moves!)
+ Sells: CTS-TO
3/ Port 2:

All stocks hit new highs and had big performance MTD.
See $ZS, $AMD, $ARCB, $SI. I don't talk much on them here.

FYI this is a performance-focused portfolio for family w/ strict criteria I use such as high EBITDA etc

Below is the framework:
4/ Port 2 Updates:

Let's begin with the hardest: Booked a triple-digit in $NET

When I sell, It's not the end. If a company can turn it numbers around, I'm not afraid to buy it back!

I still track $NET closely. In meantime I feel good w/ my choice.
5/ Next;

+ $CRWD had an alliance w/ $ZS & $PATH (love it). No news is good questions. (I also watch $S metrics)

+ $PATH has been up to partnerships, but all I care about is 50% ARR next Qtr!!

+ Grab $AGC, I trimmed it w/ recent spikes. HOPEFULLY, we get an announcement soon!!
6/ $UPST

It's all abt earnings on Tues. I have ALOT to say about my large holdings, but let's just wait until the result is clear.

Results drive my conviction, not the other way around. $LC knocked it out, so I expect more

Thank you, @seeeeaaaannnnnn

7/ $AFRM:

Investor day Conference was amazing. But Investors need to hear about monetization from recent partnerships.

I provided $AFRM product Updates here:

For Earnings, All I care about is Q2 2021 GUIDANCE!

8/ $CFLT exploded fast:

Well, EVERYTHING you need to know about them is in this thread.

Hope you all found it helpful. Nothing much else to say.

9/ $CFLT: P-2:

Last month, I provided some evidence why I was becoming bullish on $CFLT based on some notes.

I'll just share that for any followers who is really bullish on Enterprise SaaS AI, you might want to read the initial post I retweeted below
10/ $PLTR:

In the meantime, I added to my position primarily because I was really impressed to see the developments in Channels partners, Foundry for Builders & Foundry for the Crypto Ecosystem.

These are going to be future revenue drivers. See below:

11/ $PLTR Earnings (2)

I've provided a full article below discussing all the KEY metrics investors need to watch & How to Interpret the report

It was just published YESTERDAY! I'll say more tomorrow. I have high expectations, but I've got mixed feelings

seekingalpha.com/article/446637…
12/ $UPWK:

Yikes! I was disappointed and humiliated w/ the results.

I reduced my position, took losses, and re-allocated to higher performing businesses.

If key metrics in Q4 Results come in lighter, I'll likely exit. This was my post-earnings thread
13/ $DLO:

I started a tiny position. I was somewhat disappointed on the *light* preliminary results. I am waiting to see their Q4 guidance and the NRR metric.

I'm on the edge of my seat/fingers crossed for earnings, but overall, great company!!

14/ $MAGT-TO.

I started a tracking position into this Cybersecurity and Investigation company in Canada.
High growth, margins, profitable and founded by the team that started Blackberry.

Earnings this week will determine/build the story (More on this name in the future)
15/ $DOCN (Port 2):

I had mixed feelings about the results but overall, I thought it was decent.

Watchlist Names:

16/ $AMPL:

I sold it last month, but kicking myself for missing out on a 40% move!

Anyways, I feel comfortable that CFLT has done well. I will wait for $AMPL earnings report before deciding if I'll restart.

Some info about them below:
17/ $DDOG:

I've been tweeting lots about DDOG which means I WANT shares!

It was on WL last month and I stupidly watched it go high everyday!

I've pretty much provided all the thesis below. I'll be looking to start a position soon.

18/ Anyways that's mostly it for October. It was good.

Last Month's High Convictions worked out great! Which means this month would be tough. I'll wait for earnings to determine my next high-convictions

19/ Other watchlist names:

1) $BIGC
2) $MNDY.
3) $GDYN and couple fintech like SoFi (Portfolio 2)

Finally, I'd let earnings and result dictate my next directions

For anyone who wants to see my historical previous portfolio recap. Here you go.

20/ I'll use the opportunity to add that Portfolio-1 is my core A/C. I am lenient with company criteria and in Portfolio 2, I'm strict on fundamentals.

During the past month, I had a good conversation with @Innovestor_ to discuss my investing process.

innovestor.substack.com/p/investor-int…
21/ My final observation is that as QE ends. The market is becoming CRITICAL w/ high PE/Growth that don't deliver. Eg. $CHGG.

My advice is to detach your love for a Company vs to a Stock. Develop a critical eye before the market notices. Hold the best/high conviction companies!
22/ That All. Thanks for reading

I post my portfolio/monthly tweet recap at the second weekend of every month.
At Year-End, It allows me to look back at my decisions and reflect appropriately. Hopefully, Jan 2021, I'll do this on my Substack.

Goodluck in the month of November!
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More from @InvestiAnalyst

8 Nov
$PLTR: Palantir’s 3Q Report:

Below is a short thread of my article on the important metrics I’ll be tracking. I'm fairly neutral.

+ 3Q Rev beat: $396M; >35% YoY
+ FY guidance
+ Foundry & Gotham business lines
+ Ent. Product GTM.

Let me explain: 1/n

seekingalpha.com/article/446637…
2/
- Q3: 40% YoY would be Net $30M, 35% ideal
- Q4 Rev: $405M (>27% YoY) is a minimum.
- FY 2021: $1.6B which would be roughly 40% YoY would be great.
- Sadly, I expect high SBC Costs
- Gov't contracts should boost FY 21 based on recent contracts (Army, IDIQ)

Metrics below ImageImage
3/ Enterprise Clients is a BIG PART of my thesis:

Acceleration in the commercial would be HUGE. In Q2, they added 20 net new clients (booked $925M of contracts (175% YoY): Could we get around 190+ in Q3?

I'll watch Billings, RPO Growth, and Total Contract Value, ideally $4.0B+>
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
Confluent: The Central Nervous System that is empowering Data in Motion for the Leading Corporations.

Why Confluent could become as dominant as Snowflake as a leading Open-Source Data Infrastructure.

This is my long-awaited $CFLT Investment Thesis:
1/Thread Overview:

1) First Principles Analogy for Kafta (the foundations of Apache Kafta is needed to know CFLT)
2) $CFLT Overview and how it fits Kafta
3) Investment Thesis
4) The AI & Data Analytics Opportunity

Let's GO!
2/First, we need to know Apache Kafta?

An analogy: Imagine the task of going shopping, arriving home and you need to distribute those bought items across a BIG house FAST. Hassle? What if I gave you a robot to perform that task? Yay!

Kafta helps distribute from source > target
Read 27 tweets
29 Oct
Notable High-Quality Newsletters:

I asked Investors a few weeks ago to tell me their best-underfollowed newsletters amongst low-key Accounts.

Here are the Top 17 noteworthy ones I found in my research:
1/
@MT_Capital1

He writes an extensive and comprehensive analysis on emerging high-tech companies. Some of his best works include $SQ, $AFRM, $UPWK, $DLO and more!

Link: mtcapital.substack.com/subscribe
2/ @xponentialdave

Writes on Portfolio Mgmt and thoroughly analyzes *Quality* Tech companies.

He is currently UP 77% YTD! and has a cumulative Performance since Jan 2020 of 474%!

I won't say much beyond you want to follow him and read his articles:

exponentialdave.com/2021/10/29/oct…
Read 19 tweets
28 Oct
$UPWK Q3 Earnings Review:

The report was mixed. They laid the foundation for future growth opportunities amongst freelancers & enterprise clients.

Below is my full analysis after digesting the report:
1/ If you missed my initial pre-earnings analysis.

You can find out the key metrics that I was watching before hitting the thread -
2/ The report was mixed. Let's begin with the negatives:

Top-line Revenue:

They were mostly in-line with expectations on the lower end. Weak boost

+38% GSV YoY
+31% Rev YoY
+Slow-down QoQ
+ No major $ Rev adds to Q4 & Full-year guidance.

Technically 1% beat. Disappointing.
Read 11 tweets
27 Oct
$UPWK reports a crucial Q3 Report:

It's one of my largest positions. I'm positioned for both the good and the worst.

Here are the key metrics & my pre-earnings drill for this report (a sneak-peak into how I prepare for earnings):
1/ Rev Estimates:

@hydnbrwn hired a new CFO less than a year ago (Ex $FB Exec). Historically, Jeff beats estimates at 3-4% range.

Below are my expectations using historical metrics I've modelled: At 5%,
+ Yellow will be "OK"
+ Mid-range will be good
+ If we get any of the green
2/ Key Metrics that drive a freelance platform like $UPWK

a) GSV Per Active Client
b) GSV v Marketplace Growth
c) Monitor cohort stickiness

Importantly, last Q; They added 29 New Enterprise Clients that are spending >$1Million (100% YoY).It'll be interesting to see their impact
Read 11 tweets
11 Oct
October Core Portfolio & Update:

• $UPST - 20
• $AFRM - 18
• $UPWK -16
• $CRWD -13
• $NET -9
• $PLTR -8
• $PATH -5
• $CFLT -3
• $AGC (Grab) <1.0

+ Cash: 7%
+ Doubled down on $AFRM & $UPWK

This thread contains Company updates, a recap and my Investing process in Sept:
1/ Sept was a good month:

+ I sold $APPS to add $UPWK during the dip.
+ I bought a new position $AMPL, sold to add $UPWK Calls
+ Plan to re-add APPS & AMPL as I add more cash to my A/C
+ Few other companies below

Below are my updates from Last August:
2/ Portfolio 2: (Manged A/C):

Purely Quant focused, No Narratives:
• $ZS
• $SE
• $SI
• $AMD
• $AMBA
• $STLD
• $LC
• $DOCN
• $CTS-TO

Portfolio criteria is purely based on companies with Profitability + Cash Flow+ Earnings + future EPS + Fwd Rev Growth *acceleration*
Read 27 tweets

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