I think @elonmusk will exercise his options for 22.8m shares, pay the necessary federal/state taxes (about 50% because it's income and not LT cap gains), and then sell all 22.8m shares via a block trade. At a stock price of $1100, he'll be left with $12.5b in cash.
@elonmusk It's also likely that the millionaire/billionaire surtax (5% over $10m and 3% additional over $25m in adjusted gross income) will be passed in reconciliation bill, so Elon will save 8% in taxes if he finishes this transaction before end of year.
Big question is what will @elonmusk do with the $12.5 billion in cash?

He probably won't want to keep it in cash for long. BTC? ETH? DOGE? New crypto? New company? TITS university? Fund SpaceX?
Elon already needs to pay taxes on the 22.8m shares to be exercised regardless if he sells them or not. If he first sells existing common shares, he'll pay taxes on those (albeit LT cap gains), and then be taxed again w/option exercise which not smart.

The 22.8m shares to be exercised are from his 2012 CEO compensation plan and don't carry a requirement to hold them after exercise. He can sell them all immediately as far as I know.
Elon had 3 choices regarding 22.8m options:

1. Exercise, borrow margin loan to pay $12-13B in taxes, keep all shares.

2. Exercise, sell 1/2 shares to pay $12-13B tax, keep 1/2 shares.

3. Exercise, sell all shares, pay $12-13B tax, keep $12-13B cash.

Not sure why Twitter poll was needed because in all 3 scenarios he's paying the same $12-13B in taxes, whether or not he keeps the shares or not.
The 22.8m in options are taxed upon exercise as income (37% federal, 13.3% california tax because was vested there) and not LT cap gains. No way out of this. Even if borrowed on margin to exercise all shares, still need to pay same 50.3% tax (stock price - exercise price).
Note: it appears Elon would need to pay the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax as well, taking his tax rate on on his option exercise to 54.1%.

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More from @heydave7

14 Aug
Next time @elonmusk agrees to a 100% pay for performance incentive plan where he needs to 10x market cap of company, folks ought to pay attention. Just saying.
@elonmusk Prior to the 2018 CEO compensation plan, Elon agreed to a 2012 CEO compensation that would reward him in tranches for taking TSLA from $3.2B in market cap to $43.2B in market cap. Another 10x.
The 2012 and 2018 CEO compensation plans laid out a clear 100x in market cap appreciation for $TSLA. Problem was not many people believed that these compensation plans were achievable. But it's clear @elonmusk thought they were acheivable or else he wouldn't have agreed to them.
Read 6 tweets
29 May
Tesla recently published some patent applications where we can learn some super interesting details about the Cybertruck, Cybertruck camping mode…. and most importantly, the Cybertrailer.

Here’s a thread…
The Cybertruck tonneau cover and tail gate can be opened with press of a button. Also, the tonneau cover will likely have solar panels. These solar panels would likely give 15 miles of range per day (according to @elonmusk on 11/22/19).
Patent application drawings show Cybertruck with 610 mile range. Obviously this is no guarantee, but nevertheless interesting. (Tri-motor Cybertruck is advertised with 500+ mile range on Tesla's website)
Read 6 tweets
1 May
We’re on the cusp of something big, really big - namely the emergence of AI-powered robots that will be able to do most of what humans do but better.

This is both exciting and concerning.

@elonmusk @tesla
Driving is a real-world Turing Test (credit: @lexfridman), and we’ll see AI+Robot (ie., Robotaxi) show the world it can drive better than humans.

But AI-powered robot cars is just the beginning of what might become the biggest technological revolution in history - the proliferation of physical AI robots that change our world as we know it.
Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
I had a great chat with @summerlinARK about how Tesla is using AI to solve for FSD and why Tesla’s data advantage can become competitive moat.

How Tesla is Using AI to Solve FSD w/ ARK Analyst Will Summerlin Part 1 (Ep. 329)

Autonomous driving is a tough nut to crack because there are so many edge cases and a company needs a tremendous amount of driving data under a wide range of condition to gather enough of those edge cases.

Those edge cases are very hard to acquire and are gold.
Having the best data means Tesla can have the best performing FSD system & that attracts more drivers who generate even more data which in turn improves the system even more.

Data advantages in the 2020s will likely determine which companies have the strongest competitive moats.
Read 5 tweets
5 Apr
1/ Tesla’s surprise Q1 report (185k vehicles delivered) removes much uncertainty many investors had, namely poor Q1 earnings could lead to a depressed stock price that could last multiple quarters.

This is a big opportunity for sentiment to turn positive.
2/ Tesla smashed expectations despite Q1 being seasonally weakest quarter and no refreshed S/X deliveries

Q2 will only get better with Shanghai continuing to ramp Model Y production and Tesla able to deliver refreshed S/X.
3/ Q1’s blowout deliveries also means that Tesla might post record Q1 earnings and profits.

As Tesla increases deliveries EVERY quarter this year, revenue & profit increase every quarter especially because revenue & gross profit will increase much faster than operating expenses.
Read 11 tweets
4 Apr
From March 2014:

"The continuously decreasing battery prices is the key advantage that could open up an opportunity for Tesla to sneak in with the Gen4 in 2022."

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
"Gen4 will be the iPhone of the family & compact sedan market. This one will take longer since it might not be released until 2022 & it will take time for costs (ie., battery) to come down and production to ramp. So, by 2035-2040 I can see Tesla taking 50% sales of this market." https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-b
Funny to look back at these posts and find that @emmetpeppers who went by TSLAOpt on TMC see Tesla's potential back then.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ar…
Read 4 tweets

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