So, uh, today’s #COVID19 update from @mnhealth begins with these ominous words: "COVID-19 new case growth over this past weekend exceeded the intake capacity of our current staffing.” Up to several thousand cases not yet processed. Even w/out these, cases still up since last Tues
@mnhealth In other words: tomorrow’s report is going to be *bad*.

#COVID19 hospitalizations are rising all around the state.
@mnhealth Cases are particularly high in west-central Minnesota.

The outbreak is *relatively* mild in Hennepin/Ramsey, but still considerably elevated from where we were a month or two ago (let alone this summer).
@mnhealth Minnesota’s not alone in seeing a surge in reported #COVID19 cases. Almost every other state in the region has seen cases tick upward in recent days and weeks.
@mnhealth Turning to vaccinations, see that little uptick in first doses? That’s the kiddos.

The initial wave of 5-11 vaccinations is only going to pick up more as reports get processed, for the rest of this week at least.
@mnhealth Here’s another look at the arrival of 5-11-year-old vaccinations:
@mnhealth Here’s how cases and positivity rate line up compared to last year. As you can see, some similarities, some differences.

So far, this current surge is not QUITE as intense as the November 2020 surge.

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More from @dhmontgomery

10 Nov
Today’s #COVID19 data is gonna be extra bad, but remember that a big chunk of that was that @mnhealth didn’t get all the weekend cases processed by yesterday.
That said, this is just a one-day backlog. These cases are all happening now, whether we assign them to Tuesday or Wednesday doesn’t make much difference. Cases are still spiking drastically. So is positivity rate. ImageImage
#COVID19 hospitalizations are shooting upward. They’re rising everywhere, but especially in the metro-area hospitals. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
Fasten your seatbelts, it’s a rough #COVID19 report in Minnesota today. The most cases in one single day of reporting (excluding multi-day reports) since December 2020. Positivity rate up to 7.9%, similarly the highest since last December.
And before the usual suspects jump into my replies to complain about focusing on (or even mentioning) cases as a metric, hospitalizations and deaths from #COVID19 are also at their highest rates since last December.
That said, for you pessimists looking at the calendar and worrying about *last* November, take a look at the slopes of the two lines here. Positivity rate is going up at the same time it did last fall — but at not nearly the same pace.
Read 11 tweets
6 Nov
So I’ve got this little corner in my kitchen that’s mostly holding assorted junk.

My vision is to put some sort of tall storage along the left wall, and low storage (3’ tall) under the window with a flat top we can use as a kitchen surface.

Any ideas for how to fill this? Image
It’s pretty easy to find furniture that will fit ONE of the two sides here — a tall cabinet for the left, or a wide butcher block/sideboard for the top. But finding something that fills both spaces appropriately at the same time is tricky!
Like, one neat shelf we saw at IKEA is about 14” deep, plus doors that open about 16” out. That eats up 30” of the 76” available along the window, leaving about 42-44” to spare. But most sideboard-type furniture seems to be either 50”+ or less than 30”.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
In huge swathes of northern and western Minneapolis, Jacob Frey won outright majorities of the first-choice vote today (though no one topped 65% in any precinct). Sheila Nezhad had her strongholds in Phillips / Powderhorn / University. Knuth did OK almost everywhere.
Support for replacing the Minneapolis Police Department with a Department of Public Safety was strong in the same areas Frey did poorly in — Phillips / Powderhorn / University — and weak elsewhere, especially in Southwest Minneapolis.
Votes for Frey and against the Public Safety Department were *highly* correlated at the precinct level.
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov
Alright, let’s try this again, but with correct math.

I’d say Frey might be in trouble if the share of voters ranking in 2nd & 3rd was circa 1-3%. As it is, he’s got a whole lot of votes that will likely come his way as RCV is calculated and candidates eliminated tomorrow.
Frey’s got a whole lot of paths to get to 50%+1 as RCV is calculated. Is it mathematically guaranteed with what we know now? No. There are ways that both Nezhad & Knuth could theoretically win. But I think they’re unlikely.
As I think about it more closely, these old charts weren’t *wrong*. What they were showing is % of *total ballots cast*. My new charts are showing percent of ballots *in each round*. Exhausted ballots change the denominators!
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
One thing that is certain to be true: the dominant choice of Minneapolis voters today is going to be “did not vote,” not any of the candidates/choices on the ballot. Since the 70s, Minneapolis has never had a municipal race where more than 50% of registered voters turned out.
And even if we do set a modern record and top 50% turnout, more registered voters will have stayed home than will vote for any of the candidates/choices.
Here’s a turnout history for Minneapolis mayoral elections. Note that 1985, 1989, 2005 and 2009 featured incumbent mayors winning reelection en route to long tenures. (Winning handily, in @R_T_Rybak’s cases; I can’t find stats on Donald Fraser’s 1980s wins to say for sure.)
Read 4 tweets

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