Just peeked at Israeli MOH 11/9 data on current infection/serious infection rates split out by unvaccinated, boosted, & vax/not boosted.
We see boosted strongly protected vs. infection, and vaccinated/boosted show evidence of waning effectiveness, but still 50-70% VE_infection
For serious disease, again boosted are strongly protected. But even vaccinated/not boosted have much lower severe disease rates than unvaccinated.
Remember, these are CURRENTLY active cases, so only a snapshot, but show (1) strong protection of boosters and (2) Even unboosted vaccinated subpopulation seem to have substantial protection vs. severe disease, at all age groups.
Israeli MOH 11/9 data on current infection/serious infection rates split out by unvaccinated, boosted, & vax/not boosted.
We see boosted strongly protected vs. infection, and vaccinated/boosted show evidence of waning effectiveness, but still 50-70% VE_infection
(corrected typo)
Sorry for the column header typo -- and also here I add the raw counts so you can see the sample sizes in current infections/serious infections. Wish I could edit the original tweet but this will have to do :)
The Hebrew I translated as "boosted" is literally translated as "vaccinated" and what I translated as "vaccinated, not boosted" is literally translated "vaccinated with invalidity"
Someone else in this thread suggested their definitions of "vaccinated" actually includes boosted plus vaccinated in past 6 months but not boosted.
And "vaccinated with invalidity" means vaccinated >6m ago but not yet boosted.
f this is the case then the 12-15yr might not be boosted, but just recently vaccinated with 2 doses (and that might be way no infections listed for "vaccinated with invalidity" since no 12-15yr was vaccinated >6m ago).
This also makes the results much more impressive.
This would mean that what I have labelled as "vaccinated not boosted" is in fact "vaccinated >6m ago not boosted"
And what I label "boosted" might be "Boosted or vaccinated <6m ago"
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What do currently active cases on Israeli MoH dashboard say about vaccine effectiveness vs. infection/severe disease for those vaccinated and with/without booster?
Here are the current data as of October 7, 2021 after roughly 2 months of delivery of boosters:
These data come from the Israel MoH dashboard from October 7, 2021 (datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…) and include counts of currently active infections and severe infections by age group, split out by vaccination status (unvaccinated, boosters, or vaccinated but no boosters).
I simply computed "vaccine effectiveness" for vaccine (or booster) as the 1 minus the ratio of the infection (or serious infection) rate for the vaccinated (or boosted) group and the unvaccinated group.
Note that this is only a snapshot of current cases.
Lancet paper based on >3.4m USA patients found Pfizer vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. infection decreased from 88% 1m after vaccination to 47% after 5m, but that VE vs. hospitalization remained strong at 93% through 6m.
This paper followed >3.4m patients >12yr old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) system between 12/20 and 7/21 using a retrospective cohort design.
All patients needed to have >1yr of previous data to establish comorbidities.
Their primary analysis computed relative risk of PCR+ infection, comparing unvaccinated with fully vaccinated individuals for each calendar day.
They adjusted for age, sex, race, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, SES, previous health-care utilization, & various co-morbidities.
Large contact tracing study in UK shows Pfizer vaccine reduces transmission by 82% vs alpha and 65% vs delta and AstraZeneca by 63% and 36%, respectively. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The study uses the national contacting tracing registry and compares testing positivity of contacts across vaccinated and unvaccinated, stratify information by vaccine type and number of doses
The modeling accounts for key potential confounding variables in the tested individual so as not to be driven by demographic factors.
When you are senior editor of a journal and handle your own paper, it is not peer review, it is an editorial:
I’ve now read the paper in detail
It is a science based commentary projecting authors’ viewpoints including 1. <<35k have actually died from covid 2. yet 225k-1.4m have already died from vaccines 3. With most of the paper describing why they think it is the tip of the iceberg
Their methodology for estimating vaccine caused death is hopelessly flawed, driven by an assumption that vaers death reporting is the same in the day or two after inoculation as it is months later.
This thread explores how time confouding can artificially inflate vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from observational data & make them misleading.
This may explain some reports earlier this year reporting 97-98%+ VE numbers, too high to be believable.
1/n
The basic idea is: 1. Vaccination rates were very low in early 2021 2. COVID-19 infection/death rates were very high in early 2021 from winter surge
2/n
3. Vaccination rates strongly increased moving from winter into spring/early summer 2021 4. COVID infection/death rates decreased moving from winter into spring/early summer coming off the winter surge and into the pre-Delta lull.
3/n