@daniel_bilar @EduEngineer @kueny_michael @mjtimber2 @stkirsch Here is the sequence if you are interested:
@daniel_bilar @EduEngineer @kueny_michael @mjtimber2 @stkirsch And he snapped at this terse response and is practically all he has said to me for 3 months -- any time I try to engage on a topic, he snaps in an accusatory tone at me and often brings up this response (that was important enough for him to center in a blog post).
@daniel_bilar @EduEngineer @kueny_michael @mjtimber2 @stkirsch I have apologized to him numerous times for that - I was totally wrong cut him off like that - but I had just spent tons of time going through Steve's novelette and writing the blog post in response, and then had spent much of the day responding to Kathy and Jessica and Steve ...
@daniel_bilar @EduEngineer @kueny_michael @mjtimber2 @stkirsch and didn't want to take any more time getting into it with him at that time -- I had to get back to me day job (my covid stuff is all outside my main teaching/research/administrative responsibilities as I lead a group of 35 faculty)

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More from @jsm2334

7 Oct
What do currently active cases on Israeli MoH dashboard say about vaccine effectiveness vs. infection/severe disease for those vaccinated and with/without booster?

Here are the current data as of October 7, 2021 after roughly 2 months of delivery of boosters:
These data come from the Israel MoH dashboard from October 7, 2021 (datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…) and include counts of currently active infections and severe infections by age group, split out by vaccination status (unvaccinated, boosters, or vaccinated but no boosters).
I simply computed "vaccine effectiveness" for vaccine (or booster) as the 1 minus the ratio of the infection (or serious infection) rate for the vaccinated (or boosted) group and the unvaccinated group.

Note that this is only a snapshot of current cases.
Read 10 tweets
5 Oct
Lancet paper based on >3.4m USA patients found Pfizer vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs. infection decreased from 88% 1m after vaccination to 47% after 5m, but that VE vs. hospitalization remained strong at 93% through 6m.

This 🧵 will summarize key results.

thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
This paper followed >3.4m patients >12yr old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) system between 12/20 and 7/21 using a retrospective cohort design.

All patients needed to have >1yr of previous data to establish comorbidities.
Their primary analysis computed relative risk of PCR+ infection, comparing unvaccinated with fully vaccinated individuals for each calendar day.

They adjusted for age, sex, race, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, SES, previous health-care utilization, & various co-morbidities.
Read 9 tweets
3 Oct
Large contact tracing study in UK shows Pfizer vaccine reduces transmission by 82% vs alpha and 65% vs delta and AstraZeneca by 63% and 36%, respectively. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The study uses the national contacting tracing registry and compares testing positivity of contacts across vaccinated and unvaccinated, stratify information by vaccine type and number of doses
The modeling accounts for key potential confounding variables in the tested individual so as not to be driven by demographic factors.
Read 6 tweets
29 Sep
When you are senior editor of a journal and handle your own paper, it is not peer review, it is an editorial: Image
I’ve now read the paper in detail

It is a science based commentary projecting authors’ viewpoints including 
1. <<35k have actually died from covid 
2. yet 225k-1.4m have already died from vaccines
3. With most of the paper describing why they think it is the tip of the iceberg
Their methodology for estimating vaccine caused death is hopelessly flawed, driven by an assumption that vaers death reporting is the same in the day or two after inoculation as it is months later.
Read 8 tweets
22 Sep
This thread explores how time confouding can artificially inflate vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from observational data & make them misleading.

This may explain some reports earlier this year reporting 97-98%+ VE numbers, too high to be believable.
1/n
The basic idea is:
1. Vaccination rates were very low in early 2021
2. COVID-19 infection/death rates were very high in early 2021 from winter surge
2/n
3. Vaccination rates strongly increased moving from winter into spring/early summer 2021
4. COVID infection/death rates decreased moving from winter into spring/early summer coming off the winter surge and into the pre-Delta lull.
3/n
Read 17 tweets
15 Sep
Data presented below show nearly 33% of unvaccinated adult Israeli residents were previously infected.

Why is this important & has this contributed to misinterpretation of Israeli data?

This thread wll explore these questions.
1/n
Israeli MoH releases periodic vaccination reports on its Telegram site. This table breaks down vaccination status by age groups as of September 14, 2021 listing total population and number given 1/2/3 doses plus those unvaccinated but recovered from previous infection
2/n Image
From these data, I constructed this table with % of population unvaccinated, given 1 dose, 2 doses, & 3 doses, & proportion of unvaccinated are previously infected.

Note that >30% of total unvaccinated Israelis were previously infected, & >1/3 for all age groups in 20-59yr
3/n Image
Read 13 tweets

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