(1) A thread on Producer Prices, useful because *tomorrow* the Consumer Price index will be released.

It's important to know how they interplay and why one being higher than the other is a key indicator.
(2) The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at 3 stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final. The final product inflation rate in July (reported in Aug) was alarming at 7.8%. We warned of more inflation flowing into the supply chain.
(3) Today, The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released stunning price data for October, showing a dramatic 8.6% price increase in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.
(4) I modified Table A (final demand product pricing) taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.
(5) When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher. Future finished goods at a retail level will carry the current wholesale price increase.
(6) Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.
(7) You can see from Table A that finished good prices are still climbing. That’s the higher price inflation you are feeling when you buy a product.
(8) However, even more alarming is to look at the “intermediate demand” products [Table B below] as they flow through the manufacturing system.

Two types of products are at the intermediate wholesale level: Processed Goods, and Unprocessed goods.
(9) I have again modified Table B to remove the noise.

Here is where you focus on two specific metrics:
(10) Prices for both types of products are still climbing in the manufacturing process. Compare Aug, Sept, Oct, noticing how prices are still climbing.
(11) Some of that has to do with energy and fuel costs still climbing. The increasing prices for gasoline build into each part of the transportation process
(12) Notice the scale of the increase in the prices from prior months. The trend line is not leveling off, instead it’s doing the opposite. The rate of inflationary climb (price increase), at the intermediate level of goods coming into the system, is getting even more steep.
(13) The stuff coming into the manufacturing process is not only costing more, it is costing much more than before.
(14) That more expensive stuff will be reflected in the price of finished goods that make their way to retail shelves. It is a precursor to seeing more inflation coming at us.
(15) The wholesale prices of products coming into the system -that end up at the retail level- is still through the roof. In a major way, this is being driven by massive increases in energy costs throughout the entire supply chain.
(16) If Consumer Prices (released tomorrow) are in the 6% range year-over-year (rate of inflation), that still means there is an almost 3% lag in the wholesale inflation rate which stands at 8.6%.

Meaning consumer inflation will keep climbing.
Even if wages jumped in price 5% overnight (single month), which would be a large increase in wages, those wage increases are nowhere near enough to deal with this level of price increase at a consumer level.
(18) A nickel more per dollar earned is futile against a loaf of bread costing $1 more, or gasoline at $4.00/gal.

At the current rate of increase, regular unleaded gasoline will hit $6/gal (National Average) by Easter.
(19) Watch the CPI release tomorrow. Then compare that number to the 8.6% PPI released today.

Take the difference between the two as a percentage, and then multiply that percent against the price of any current product and it will tell you what is coming.
(20) Example (rough approx):

PPI 8.6%
CPI 5.8%

RAW Diff: 2.8%
% Diff = 32.55%

Current Bread $3.69 + 32.55% = Future Bread $4.89
Current gas $4.00 + 32.55% = Future gas $5.30
(21) The FIRST STEP in defending against this onslaught is to stop excusing it by saying they don’t know what they are doing, or any version of the incompetency argument.

They know exactly what they are doing.


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More from @TheLastRefuge2

11 Nov
(1) Yesterday, data on the wholesale “Producer Prices” was released showing an 8.6 percent increase in prices for final demand products.

(2) Today, the “Consumer Price” data was released showing a massive 6.2 percent increase in prices for goods that are currently available for sale.

(3) With wholesale price increases (8.7%) running ahead of retail price increases (6.2%) that means more retail price increases are already built into the supply chain.

The 2.4% diff is essentially an inflation lag already in the supply chain (raw material, intermediate, final).
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
Brian Williams reports on January 6th.... Image
His introduction to the segment when he interviewed Carly Fiorina in the 2016 primary Image
Interviewing the RNC Image
Read 6 tweets
31 Oct
The NBC Poll is terrible for more than just Biden and Democrats. The poll also shows a collapsing effectiveness for the COVID fear narrative.

Majority to not support Vaccination Mandates.

47% Support mandate / 50% Oppose

32% say advocacy would help a political candidate.
40% say would hurt a candidate.
Children vaxx questions even worse for the COVID mandate pushers.

27% of parents would vaccinate under 12
64% would not, or would wait to see side effects.
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
The *advanced* estimate is 2.0 percent, caused by a massive drop in consumer spending. I will bet you a donut the November revision will be much lower.

"Disposable personal income decreased $29.4 billion, or 0.7 percent, in the third quarter"... as measured.

This is where you will see the next revision drop the advanced estimate number much further. Disposable income in Q3 shrunk much more than 0.7%
This is where you see the contraction. The revision in a few weeks will be more dramatic. Meaning these numbers will be worse.
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
1) Last thread on current FBI motive to throw a bag over Deripaska.

Remember, Lisa Monaco is Deputy AG, and John Carlin is back in the DOJ-NSD position. Both of them participated in the illegal political surveillance operations against candidate Trump (that involved Deripaska)
2) Byron York previously outlined documents showing the communication between Trump Dossier author Christopher Steele and DOJ official Bruce Ohr.

3) Within the early 2016 discussions, Chris Steele appeared to be advocating to Bruce Ohr on behalf of Oleg Deripaska who was banned from travel into the U.S. by the State Department.
Read 31 tweets
19 Oct
1) The story of the Russian hookers peeing on Donald Trump almost certainly came from a Russian billionaire named Oleg Deripaska.
2) Christopher Steele was actually a contracted employee of Deripaska, at least Deripaska was paying Chris Steele for some type of work in the U.K.

Find video of Tom Cotton questioning Chris Wray about Steele working for Oleg. It's out there.
3) Oleg’s U.S. lawyer was a guy named Adam Waldman. You might remember that Adam Waldman was also the legal liaison between Chris Steele and SSCI then Vice-Chairman Mark Warner.

Read 21 tweets

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