For years, I’ve read macro newsletters which held views of deflationary forces.
These academically gifted people, majority of whom never practiced what they wrote, were convinced deflation would persist because Treasury bonds were rising (yields were falling).
Quick example.
We are fortune enough to be invested in real estate in 4 different jurisdictions, on 3 different continents.
Over the last few years, especially last few months, all I’ve seen is rise in prices.
Even this morning I received a letter from Czech electricity…
…giant telling me they are permanently rising prices from today.
My local builders in various countries tell me the cost of materials is up by 20-30%, in some cases much more.
I run my Twitter as a investing journal of everything I’ve done and learned over the years, and…
…I try to share my experiences with my readers.
My advice would be to stay away from these newsletter writers, investment analysts, and self proclaimed finance gurus.
Most have no clue about the real world, nor any skin in the game. Having a Bloomberg terminal & overlap one…
…chart with another is just a fancy way of filling up pages of your monthly report, accompanied by famous quotes by philosophers.
Doesn’t do much else.
As for the bond market, it turns out it was artificially manipulated by the central banks with endless QE. Simple as that.
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• 7 out 10 respondents said achieving capital gains (not income) is the most important aspect when allocating to new alternative assets
• Many families are simply seeking good opportunities wherever they arise (not running a fixed portfolio)
• portfolio diversification (various funds, managers, global regions, asset classes, etc) and generating outsize returns are front of mind for most HNWIs & FOs
• In terms of sectors, Techonology is still the key focus, with the ongoing demand for venture capital deals/funds
• The key for most families is having access to the best-performing managers (most want to know that the fund managers they back are real rising stars)
• In times of crisis special situations & distressed credit funds should be an area of interest, and they have been popular
Evergrande should have defaulted years ago, so this isn't a surprise.
As an investor, I do hope the Chinese don't follow the footsteps of the West, especially the Europeans, who bailed everything and everyone out — creating a zombie economy.
Risks haven't been there for only a month, they have been there for a long time.
If the Chinese economy goes through a property market de-leveraging, it will be very painful in the short term, but create a fantastic buying opportunity.
To become a great investor, focus on a multidisciplinary mindset (become a generalist).
"Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem."
"An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default.
A psychologist will think in terms of incentives.
A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost & risk-reward.
Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation."
Applying a "multidisciplinary mindset" forces inspiring portfolio managers to have knowledge in psychology & human behavior, ancient & modern history, fundamental securities analysis, accounting, macroeconomics, experience in negotiating, running a business, and so much more.