For years, I’ve read macro newsletters which held views of deflationary forces.

These academically gifted people, majority of whom never practiced what they wrote, were convinced deflation would persist because Treasury bonds were rising (yields were falling).
Quick example.

We are fortune enough to be invested in real estate in 4 different jurisdictions, on 3 different continents.

Over the last few years, especially last few months, all I’ve seen is rise in prices.

Even this morning I received a letter from Czech electricity…
…giant telling me they are permanently rising prices from today.

My local builders in various countries tell me the cost of materials is up by 20-30%, in some cases much more.

I run my Twitter as a investing journal of everything I’ve done and learned over the years, and…
…I try to share my experiences with my readers.

My advice would be to stay away from these newsletter writers, investment analysts, and self proclaimed finance gurus.

Most have no clue about the real world, nor any skin in the game. Having a Bloomberg terminal & overlap one…
…chart with another is just a fancy way of filling up pages of your monthly report, accompanied by famous quotes by philosophers.

Doesn’t do much else.

As for the bond market, it turns out it was artificially manipulated by the central banks with endless QE. Simple as that.

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More from @TihoBrkan

2 Oct
Recent HNWI & FO survey takeaways:

• 7 out 10 respondents said achieving capital gains (not income) is the most important aspect when allocating to new alternative assets

• Many families are simply seeking good opportunities wherever they arise (not running a fixed portfolio)
• portfolio diversification (various funds, managers, global regions, asset classes, etc) and generating outsize returns are front of mind for most HNWIs & FOs

• In terms of sectors, Techonology is still the key focus, with the ongoing demand for venture capital deals/funds
• The key for most families is having access to the best-performing managers (most want to know that the fund managers they back are real rising stars)

• In times of crisis special situations & distressed credit funds should be an area of interest, and they have been popular
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Basic technical analysis notes. $BABA

Weekly first. As oversold today as on two previous occasions: 2015 RMB devaluation & 2018 trade war.

Momentum most oversold since IPO, volumes spikes highest since IPO.

We like to buy oversold when others panic (volume spikes)!
The long-term daily chart next.

A cluster of support levels between $130 and $150 price range.

Recent panic selling saw the lowest relative strength & momentum on record.

Price is very far from the 1-year mean (red line), indicating the possibility of a mean reversion.
Alibaba's HK price is up over 7% today.

Typical price thrust anticipated by bullish divergences everywhere.

Selling exhaustion seems to have run course. Why?

The onslaught of bad news out of China, yet $KWEB not making new lows!

Bears "had" their moment of glory. Is it over?
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Evergrande should have defaulted years ago, so this isn't a surprise.

As an investor, I do hope the Chinese don't follow the footsteps of the West, especially the Europeans, who bailed everything and everyone out — creating a zombie economy.

Market pain creates opportunities.
Risks haven't been there for only a month, they have been there for a long time.

If the Chinese economy goes through a property market de-leveraging, it will be very painful in the short term, but create a fantastic buying opportunity.

These are the sort of headlines (back in 2012) you can expect near the market lows — exactly when you should be buying.

The worse the news gets for Chinese equities in the short term, the more bullish we become over the long term.

Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Alibaba and Tencent have been our focus in the public market as of late.

Here is what is important right now:

Successful retest or even a slight dip below August lows, despite the continued news, will be a sign most of the bad news has been discounted.

$BABA $TCEHY
If the price doesn't stop at the August low, and a retest fails, we expect both companies to sell off towards the next support level.

That could mean Alibaba at $130 and Tencent at $40.

Neither of these tweets is a prediction, just our simple probabilistic thinking approach.
Further downside remains a possibility considering S&P 500 $SPX is acting weak right now.

The index breadth is deteriorating and the $VIX is making equal & higher lows since July, not confirm the S&P's rise.

Being prepared for multiple outcomes doesn't hurt a prudent investor.
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
Trying to make a video of that amazingly famous blood orange sunset in the #Mediterranean.

No filters needed here!
Maltese cliffs and that amazing sunset 🌅
Good food with good wine and a good view = good times!

🌊 ☀️ 🦞 🐟 🏝 🍷
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
To become a great investor, focus on a multidisciplinary mindset (become a generalist).

"Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem."
"An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default.

A psychologist will think in terms of incentives.

A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost & risk-reward.

Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation."
Applying a "multidisciplinary mindset" forces inspiring portfolio managers to have knowledge in psychology & human behavior, ancient & modern history, fundamental securities analysis, accounting, macroeconomics, experience in negotiating, running a business, and so much more.
Read 10 tweets

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