Geo Energy $RE4.SI update for 3Q nos. TL;DR: this stock is still insanely cheap.
3Q EBITDA $65mm, $45mm net profit vs $280mm EV today w/ no debt. For context 1H EBITDA w/ prices -50% vs current was $75mm EBITDA...
That said margins in 3Q were a bit lower than expected...
3Q EBITDA $65mm, $45mm net profit vs $280mm EV today w/ no debt. For context 1H EBITDA w/ prices -50% vs current was $75mm EBITDA...
That said margins in 3Q were a bit lower than expected...
https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1453612736332460033
...still they announced a 3c div out of 4.4c of net earnings and said 4Q will be even better (spot pxes still >$90/t despite all the China sturm und drang).
In other words ~7c of divs coming back for 3Q+4Q on a 34c stock.
EV today is ~1x EV/EBITDA using ~3-4Q blended
In other words ~7c of divs coming back for 3Q+4Q on a 34c stock.
EV today is ~1x EV/EBITDA using ~3-4Q blended
More importantly EV today is basically 1.8x EV/EBITDA vs 1H nos (-50% vs spot, to reiterate).
Essentially the bet here is mgmt returns most of the capital and doesn't blow it. Given the huge incr in div this seems a better bet.
That said they are talking about M&A 😨😨
Essentially the bet here is mgmt returns most of the capital and doesn't blow it. Given the huge incr in div this seems a better bet.
That said they are talking about M&A 😨😨
In sum this still seems v hard to lose barring an absolute collapse in coal pxes. Despite the huge correction this has held up well. Bought some more today, still think its worth 45-50c in <6mos.
DYODD.
DYODD.
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