NEW just interviewed the Chancellor Rishi Sunak about GDP, living standards, Article 16, Geoffrey Cox and whether taxpayers’ funding was used to guarantee loyalty of MPs in votes…
1. OBR and Bank of England forecasts show decline in living standards over next two years?

“what you're seeing is an economy that is continuing to grow. And that is a good thing. We're on the right path. But of course there are global challenges ahead…”
2. Net result of all of your measures BoE/OBR see two years of declining living standards after inflation and tax?

Chancellor: “what it doesn't include is the spending on public services and that does bring value to people's lives… We need to make sure that it's well spent …”
Where is what you called “PM’s new economy” of high wages/productivity anywhere in OBR/ BoE forecasts?

“..Budget set out the most ambitious plans of any government for a long time to do exactly that…wages, wages in real terms are higher today than they were before the pandemic”
4. NEW: In the middle of a cost of living crisis why would you get involved in some sort of trade war with
our biggest trading partner?

Chancellor: “Article 16 is there as a safety mechanism, but as Lord Frost said yesterday, very clearly we are not at that point….”
Sunak: “And what we should be doing and what we are doing is working constructively with European friends and partners to explore every opportunity that we have to try and resolve some of our differences around the operation of their protocol. That's very much our priority”
5. Do you not have to prepare the ground for exporters that are already facing new trade barriers - should they prepare for the possibility tariffs might be applied?

“We're not at the point yet of article 16 which is there as a safety mechanism …”
6. can you justify what your former Cabinet colleague, former Attorney Gen has done?

Sunak: Rules must be “followed to the letter” but “reflecting on all of these things, over recent days, what I can say is that for us as a Government, we need to to better than we did last week”
the notion public money may have been used not to get to neediest people, but in order to buy the loyalty of MPs - you as Chancellor must be v worried about that?

RS: “parliamentary processes look at all these things of course, people should be held to account for their actions”
Interesting given Sunak answer on Article 16…

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More from @faisalislam

29 Oct
Facebook/ Meta responds to some of the things we were debating on @BBCNewsnight on Monday night after the whistleblower Commons testimony:
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
Budget special #politicslive now with Jo, Laura and Simon

Keep up on joint Budget-Spending Review on @BBCTwo and on our special live page below

bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5…
Chancellor says this Budget does not “draw a line under Covid” still “challenging months ahead”.... But he says “today’s Budget does begin the work of preparing for a new economy post Covid. The Prime Minister’s economy of higher wages, higher skills, and rising productivity”
Chancellor says OBR predicts average inflation of 4% over next year and the “pressures caused by supply chains and energy prices will take months to ease. It would be irresponsible for anyone to pretend that we can solve this overnight”
Read 27 tweets
24 Oct
Chancellor speaking to Andrew Marr... says there will be “investment across the board” in public services on Wednesday - suggesting some top ups to those unprotected areas set for immediate further squeezes
Marr asks Chancellor if workers should take PMs words and ask their bosses for a pay rise... he points out that real wages are higher than pre pandemic, concludes “in order to make it sustainable we must invest in skills”
“Believe me I wish I didn’t have to raise taxes” Chancellor says to Marr... also articulates the argument I wrote about last month - that the income tax rise would have to be 2p in £, whereas with NI its 1.25p for both employers and employees...
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
On comparative Covid picture - interesting thing, noticed by pretty senior UK officials too, about being in Washington DC last week, was it felt like being transported back to UK early spring.

Everyone wearing masks indoors, many outside too...

And just whole town feeling empty
DC has broadly comparable vaccination rates - partial - 72% vs 73%, full 60% vs 67%... but completely different in relation to opening up. Goes to show what many economists stressed - lifting lockdowns is one thing, people to have confidence to end voluntary social distancing too
There are relatively few people able to make such comparisons because ordinary travel to US from UK still just about banned until November, we were allowed under State Dept exemption...

Perhaps its consequence of POTUS focus on caution/ masks etc ...
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
NEW
Hastily deleted Govt Net Zero research paper, suggests

🍖 shift diet habits to plant based & producers/retailer tax on high carbon foods
🌱 policy “to normalise plant based food”
✈️ make in person meetings requiring biz flights “immoral indulgence”
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Government swiftly, deleted & disowned “BEIS Research Paper Number 2021/063” written by the Nudge Unit, aka the Behavioural Insights Team famous for sugar levy and “herd immunity” comments...

source: “We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way”
Govt say was never policy, was part of range of inputs into Net Zero strategy considered, but then did not make it into policy... and shouldn’t have been published.

But it shows what influential team say is necessary as regards a Government “nudging” consumers towards net zero
Read 9 tweets
19 Oct
Treasury net zero review is very interesting, in green terms, but also as a mere statement of strategy - eg openly pointing to poor UK productivity performance, in the last few years again the worst in G7 for investment, having been overtaken by Italy...
*Levelling up* code alert - will green policy on cars eventually subsidise wealthy Tesla-drivers in cities, & punish less well off drivers who stick with petrol/diesel for longer, Treasury muses to itself....

Also the £30bn elephant in the room known as “VED” or road-pricing...
Also this translated -

We’ll have to tax gas more and electricity less, because although electricity is now very low carbon/ renewable, we load all carbon levies on to it rather than tax the actual carbon in gas.

But right now after the gas price quadrupled to a record? 2022!
Read 11 tweets

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