Thread by @dgurdasani1

For the "we've reached herd immunity in kids, and infections have peaked" crowd: unfortunately, this isn't true. It's the usual half-term related drop that is reversing. The trends are clear in many places, & early rises being seen in England. This is expected but very worrying🧵

The pattern is clear in places like Leicestershire that had half term a week before other parts. Rises clear in all children age groups and young people. Very likely other parts of England will follow.

Similar trends in Scotland where half term also started and ended earlier than England.

Early signs that cases may be rising in England again- age-breakdowns not yet available, but this is likely to be related to schools re-opening following half-term.

Cases are still sky high in children and likely to rise more now that schools have re-opened. Is the govt going to continue to do nothing in the hope that most children will get infected, and 'herd immunity' will be achieved? This is a dangerous and deeply unethical strategy.

It's a plan that's leading to increasing numbers of long COVID, and deaths in children. Long COVID has shown massive increases in these age groups in every ONS report that's come out recently - from 53,000 in Oct to 69,000 in Nov - for symptoms lasting 4 weeks, a 30% increase.

ONS deaths (certified as involving COVID-19) show higher numbers of child deaths occurring each week now, compared to before:

https://twitter.com/TigressEllie/status/1458170924600020998?s=20

These numbers - long COVID & deaths will continue to rise unless govt acts to protect children and families. It's also clear from the pre-half-term rise, and this rise was followed by increase in cases in other groups, followed by a rise in hospitalisations and deaths.

With the NHS at breaking point, its essential we get on top of transmission quickly. Mitigations in schools, faster vaccination of children, approval for 5-11 yr olds, return of mask mandates, isolation of contacts, booster doses- all vital.

theguardian.com/society/2021/n…

None of this is unforeseen. It was entirely predictable, as were all the calls of 'stop fearmongering', 'the pandemic is over', as soon as cases started predictably declining. Yet half-term which could've been used to put mitigations in schools was completely wasted.

We've been here before. We know roughly what happens next. There is uncertainty, yes, but there's enough to tell us that there is a lot more we need to be doing to protect healthcare for everyone. People are dying waiting for ambulances.

Is the minor inconvenience of not wearing a mask worth people not having emergency healthcare for urgent illness for the foreseeable future? People dying because they can't get the most basic urgent healthcare because our systems are overwhelmed? This is dystopian.

The situation we're in is entirely preventable. I cannot fathom why the govt is doing absolutely nothing to mitigate this crisis. And it is a crisis. If you don't believe me, speak to people working in A&Es, ambulance drivers, paramedics, any HCW, GPs.

Speak to patients trying to access urgent and routine care. We are now living in a country where if someone has a heart attack, a stroke, or an accident they may not have access to an ambulance for hours.

Once an ambulance gets them to hospital, they may still have to wait outside for hours. Even after they enter A&E, they may not be able to get treatment or be admitted for hours.

Late treatment (e.g. for heart attacks/strokes) may mean lifelong disability or even death for those with life-threatening conditions. This could be any of us, or anyone we love. Needing care with something that's not foreseeable.

Are we willing to accept this? Because I'm not.