Thread by @MoriartyLab

A huge concern that cases are rising so quickly among people 80+.

In Ontario, ~10% of people 80 and older remain completely unvaccinated.

About 1 in 5 unvaxxed people 80+ will die if they contract COVID-19.

ON has one of worst vax rates in the country for people 80+.

https://twitter.com/Billius27/status/1459164911934881796

More than 17,000 unvaccinated people in Ontario can still die from COVID-19. MANY will be in their 80s.

The HUGE gap in vaccination among people 80+ has been known for MANY, MANY months.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1457121485160685568?s=20

Hang on. I'm pulling out the regional data for vax rates among people 80+ in ON PHUs, together with estimated numbers of deaths that will result when unvaccinated people 80+ are infected with SARS-CoV-2. Not if. When.

First, there is a big problem with discrepancies in how Ontario reports vaccination rates provincially compared to the numbers it submits federally.

As of Oct 30 (the last date when we have nationally reported numbers),

613,067 people 80 and older in Ontario had received at least 1 dose, according to numbers submitted nationally here:
health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vacci…

Provincially, Ontario reports that 668,007 people 80+ have been vaccinated, or 98% of the estimated 679,266 people in this age group.

The national (StatsCan) population estimate for this age group in Ontario is 677,347, which isn't too far off the ON pop estimate.

Maybe Ontario doesn't prioritize reporting nationally, and is just really slow. Maybe, but the very large gap between ON and nationally reported rates for ON in this age group has persisted for many, many months, and the gap never seems to close.

Presumably ON has the data, since they report provincially, so why not report the same data to @GovCanHealth ? They've had more than enough time.

Why does ON report that 98% of people 80+ have received at least 1 dose of vaccine, whereas @GovCanHealth reports that only 91% of people 80+ in Ontario have received one dose?

The nationally reported numbers are reported similarly for every Canadian region, so they're less subject to differences in the way individual regions may define or count who is vaccinated or who is not.

Keeping all of this in mind, here are the % of people 80+ in each ON PHU who remain completely unvaccinated, and the estimated number of deaths that may result when they are exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

These estimates use provincial numbers, so vax rates in each PHU may be 7% lower (a LOT in this age group), and estimated future deaths may be 3-4X higher in each PHU than the numbers I provide.

Remember, these are just the estimated future deaths among people 80+.

sorry. estimated deaths could be 4.5X higher

1. Northwestern, 10-17% 80+ unvaccinated, 54-243 deaths

2. Toronto, 10-17% 80+ unvaccinated, 2,050-9,225 deaths

3. Lambton-Sarnia, 8-15% 80+ unvaccinated, 97-437 deaths

4. Grey-Bruce: 7-14% 80+ unvaccinated, 119-436 deaths

5. Haliburton: 6-13% 80+ unvaccinated, 124-558 deaths

6. Renfrew: 5-12% 80+ unvaccinated, 43-194 deaths

7. Peel: 4-11% 80+ unvaccinated, 329-1,481 deaths

8. Algoma: 3-10% 80+ unvaccinated, 36-162 deaths

9. Southwestern: 3-10% 80+ unvaccinated, 52-234 deaths

10. Hamilton: 2-9% 80+ unvaccinated, 68-306 deaths

11. Haldimand-Norfolk: 2-9% 80+ unvaccinated, 16-72 deaths

12. Hastings-Prince Edward: 2-9% 80+ unvaccinated, 26-117 deaths

13. Windsor-Essex: 2-9% 80+ unvaccinated, 55-248 deaths

14. Niagara: 1-8% 80+ unvaccinated, 39-176 deaths

15. Peterborough: 1-8% 80+ unvaccinated, 18-81 deaths

16. Timiskaming: 1-8% 80+ unvaccinated, 2-9 deaths

Other PHUs all report 100% vaccination in the 80+ age group. It's possible these rates are 7% lower, but we don't/won't know because the discrepancy in provincial and national reporting of age-specific Ontario vaccination rates in this age group has persisted for many months.

P.S. Estimated deaths don't include possible deaths from breakthrough infections in this age group.

P.P.S. Data here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

I actually don't give a rat's ass if it turns out provincially reported data are correct, and the numbers Ontario reports federally are not because of some weird thing about Ontario data.

But this discrepancy needs to be explained publicly. And fixed.

For those following along, I've hunted down data between meetings. The ICES COVID-19 dashboard provides forward sortation area- and age-segregated vaccination rate data that approximate the numbers reported nationally by @GovCanHealth much more closely than provincial numbers.

@GovCanHealth Here are the ICES dashboard downloadable data. By taking the average age-specific % vaccinated rate for all of the FSAs for each health unit I get numbers that MUCH more closely approximate Ontario's data reported nationally.

ices.on.ca/DAS/AHRQ/COVID…

@GovCanHealth ICES also uses really recent population estimates based on numbers of people in the OHIP database. They appear to be considerably higher in some age groups than the numbers used provincially, and also appear consistent with 2021 StatsCan population estimates for Ontario.