Thread by @MoriartyLab

Here is a spreadsheet with regional breakdowns of:

1) Lives in Canada saved by COVID-19 vaccination
2) Estimated *future* COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions among unvaccinated people in Canada

Based on data for week Sep 18, 2021

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

For provinces from QC west I've provided data for every public health region. I haven't finished public health regional analyses yet for Atlantic Canada and the Territories, but wanted to share this now for people in SK and AB who need the data ASAP.

Data for each of the Atlantic provinces, Nunavut, NWT and Yukon are included--just not broken down yet by public health region.

These data are intended for people who want to help others understand how many lives vaccination has already likely saved. You can use them freely.

Projections of the deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions that are still possible will decline each week as more of us are vaccinated.

They're intended to help people understand the scope of the problem in their region and age group, and why vaccination is so, so urgent.

The data will live on the @COVID_19_Canada website at some point, thanks to @BensunCFong , but I still need to finalize templates and show @EemaanKaur how to update and post the new sheets each week.

So, a work in progress.

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur I still have to prep exam questions for my course, so won't have time to write a long thread about the whole country. But I'll do a brief runthrough of the regions of gravest concern in the country at the moment.

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur Estimates were obtained by collecting age-specific vaccination rates and populations reported for each region/territory and its individual health units/zones.

From these numbers I calculate how many people are fully vaccinated and how many have not yet received their first shot

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur To obtain the estimated number of lives saved by vaccination, numbers of fully vaccinated people in each age group are multiplied by OECD age-specific infection fatality rates.

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur To estimate the numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions that could still occur before the pandemic ends in Canada, I multiplied the numbers of people who have not yet received one shot by age-specific infection fatality, hospitalization and ICU admission rates.

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur The age-specific hospitalization and ICU rates are calculated from all Canadian COVID-19 cases reported to @GovCanHealth as of Sep 22, 2021, and were calculated by @JPSoucy from the case database.

OECD IFRs come from this meta-analysis from @GidMK et al: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/p…

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur @GovCanHealth @JPSoucy @GidMK Here is a ranked list of Canadian regions where highest numbers of per capita deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions may happen, IF VACCINATION DOES NOT SPEED UP.

I'm only listing regions with predicted hospitalizations above the national average, starting with the worst.

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur @GovCanHealth @JPSoucy @GidMK 1) SK, South West
2) SK, Far North West
3) SK, Central East
4) SK, South East
5) AB, South
6) MB, Southern
7) SK, North East
8) SK, South Central
9) BC, Interior
10) SK, Central West
11) BC, Northern
12) SK, Saskatoon
13) SK, North Central
14) SK, Far North Central

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur @GovCanHealth @JPSoucy @GidMK 15) ON, Lambton
16) SK, Far North East
17) AB, Central
18) AB, Edmonton
19) ON, Northwestern
20) ON, Toronto
21) ON, Peel
22) SK, Regina
23) ON, Haliburton
24) ON, Grey-Bruce
25) BC, Vancouver Island
26) ON, Hamilton
27) BC, Vancouver Coastal
28) ON, Timiskaming
29) BC, Fraser

@COVID_19_Canada @BensunCFong @EemaanKaur @GovCanHealth @JPSoucy @GidMK 30) MB, Prairie Mountain
31) QC, Bas-Saint-Laurent
32) ON, York
33) QC, Estrie
34) AB, North
35) ON, North Bay-Parry Sound
36) ON, Windsor-Essex
37) MB, Interlake-Eastern
38) AB, Calgary
39) ON, Renfrew
40) QC, Mauricie et Centre-du-Quebec
41) ON, Haldimand-Norfolk

To clarify, the above list was ranked by highest to lowest per capita HOSPITALIZATIONS. Sorry. Not at my sharpest, and I'm rushing.

Ranked list of Canadian regions at risk of the highest per capita COVID-19 ICU ADMISSIONS, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated ICU ADMISSIONS per 100,000 population. Only regions above the national average are listed (#1-#41)

1) SK, South West
2) SK, Far North West
3) SK, South East
4) SK, Central East
5) SK, North East
6) SK, Central West
7) AB, South
8) SK, South Central
9) BC, Interior
10) MB, Southern
11) BC, Northern
12) SK, North Central
13) ON, Lambton
14) SK, Saskatoon

15) SK, Far North Central
16) AB, Central
17) SK, Far North East
18) ON, Peel
19) ON, Northwestern
20) ON, Timiskaming
21) AB, Edmonton
22) BC, Vancouver Island
23) ON, Hamilton
24) BC, Vancouver Coastal
25) SK, Regina
26) ON, York
27) ON, Haliburton
28) ON, Toronto

29) ON, North Bay-Parry Sound
30) BC, Fraser
31) MB, Prairie Mountain
32) ON, Grey-Bruce
33) ON, Windsor-Essex
34) QC, Bas-Saint-Laurent
35) ON, Haldimand-Norfolk
36) AB, North
37) MB, Interlake-Eastern
38) QC, Estrie

Sorry. Only 38 above Cdn average on the ICU list (not 41).

Ranked list of Canadian regions at risk of the highest per capita *future* COVID-19 DEATHS, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated DEATHS per 100,000 population. Only regions above the national average are listed.

1) SK, South West
2) SK, Central East
3) SK, North East
4) BC, Interior
5) SK, Far North West
6) ON, Lambton
7) MB, Southern
8) SK, South Central
9) SK, Saskatoon
10) SK, South East
11) ON, Northwestern
12) BC, Northern
13) ON, Toronto
14) SK, Central West
15) ON, Haliburton

16) ON, Grey-Bruce
17) BC, Vancouver Coastal
18) AB, South
19) SK, North Central
20) SK, Far North East
21) BC, Vancouver Island
22) BC, Fraser
23) SK, Regina
24) ON, Peel
25) AB, Edmonton
26) AB, Central
27) QC, Bas-Saint-Laurent
28) SK, Far North Central

29) MB, Prairie Mountain
30) ON, Hamilton
31) ON, Timiskaming
32) QC, Estrie
33) ON, Renfrew
34) ON, Windsor-Essex
35) AB, Calgary

Ranked list of regions where the largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 DEATHS may occur, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of national deaths. Only regions above the national average are listed.

1) ON, Toronto: 3,399 deaths
2) BC, Fraser: 1,721
3) ON, Peel: 1,336
4) BC, Vancouver Coastal: 1,246
5) BC, Interior: 1,234
6) AB, Calgary: 852
7) BC, Vancouver Island: 839
8) AB, Edmonton: 832
9) ON, York: 685
10) AB, Central: 622
11) QC, Montreal: 504
12) AB, North: 502

13) SK, Saskatoon
14) QC, Monteregie
15) ON, Hamilton
16) MB, Winnipeg
17) BC, Northern
18) AB, South
19) MB, Southern
20) QC, Mauricie et Centre-du-Quebec

Ranked list of regions where largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 ICU ADMISSIONS may occur, based on current age-specific vax numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of national ICU ADMISSIONS. Only regions above national average are listed.

1) ON, Toronto: 3,754 ICU admissions
2) BC, Fraser: 2,337
3) ON, Peel: 2,319
4) BC, Interior: 1,702
5) BC, Vancouver Coastal: 1,585
6) ON, York: 1,576
7) AB, Calgary: 1,469
8) AB, Edmonton: 1,327
9) AB, Central: 1,210
10) BC, Vancouver Island: 1,155
11) AB, North: 1,033

12) QC, Montréal: 966
13) QC, Montérégie: 790
14) ON, Hamilton: 774
15) ON, Durham: 713
16) ON, Ottawa: 676
17) ON, Simcoe-Muskoka: 622
18) ON, Waterloo: 600
19) AB, South: 594
20) SK, Saskatoon: 569
21) BC, Northern: 562
22) MB, Winnipeg: 559

23) QC, Mauricie et Centre-du-Quebec: 549
24) ON, Halton: 516
25) ON, Windsor-Essex: 510
26) ON, Niagara: 508

Ranked list of regions where largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS may occur, based on current age-specific vax numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of national HOSPITALIZATIONS. Only regions above average are listed.

1) ON, Toronto: 16,472
2) BC, Fraser: 8,773
3) ON, Peel: 8,373
4) BC, Interior: 6,299
5) AB, Calgary: 6,087
6) BC, Vancouver Coastal: 5,754
7) AB, Edmonton: 5,575
8) ON, York: 5,427
9) AB, Central: 4,707
10) QC, Montréal: 4,303
11) BC, Vancouver Island: 4,265
12) AB, North: 4,072

13) QC, Montérégie: 3,478
14) ON, Hamilton: 2,808
15) ON, Ottawa: 2,563
16) ON, Durham: 2,421
17) AB, South: 2,385
18) SK, Saskatoon: 2,315
19) MB, Winnipeg: 2,273
20) ON, Simcoe-Muskoka: 2,206
21) QC, Mauricie et Centre-du-Quebec: 2,190
22) BC, Northern: 2,098

Ranked list of Canadian provinces and territories at risk of the highest per capita *future* COVID-19 DEATHS, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated DEATHS per 100,000 population.

1) ON
2) AB
3) NB
4) SK
5) NL
6) BC
7) NWT
8) NS
9) YK
10) QC
11) MB
12) NUV
13) PEI

Ranked list of Canadian provinces and territories at risk of the highest per capita *future* COVID-19 ICU ADMISSIONS, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated ICU ADMISSIONS per 100,000 population.

1) SK
2) AB
3) NWT
4) NB
5) ON
6) BC
7) YK
8) NS
9) QC
10) NL
11) MB
12) NUV
13) PEI

Ranked list of Canadian provinces and territories at risk of the highest per capita *future* COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS, based on current age-specific vaccination numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated HOSPITALIZATIONS per 100,000 population.

1) AB
2) SK
3) ON
4) NWT
5) NB
6) BC
7) YK
8) NS
9) NL
10) QC
11) MB
12) NUV
13) PEI

Ranked list of provinces and territories where largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 DEATHS may occur, based on current age-specific vax numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of total national DEATHS.

1) ON: 13,424
2) AB: 3,652
3) BC: 2,076
4) QC: 1,671
5) SK: 933
6) NB: 619
7) NS: 337
8) MB: 239
9) NL: 235
10) PEI: 22
11) NWT: 17
12) YK: 14
13) NUV: 6

Ranked list of provinces and territories where largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 ICU ADMISSIONS may occur, based on current age-specific vax numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of total national ICU ADMISSIONS.

1) ON 17,891
2) QC 6,743
3) AB 6,082
4) BC 5,751
5) SK 1,666
6) MB 1,033
7) NB 962
8) NS 794
9) NL 402
10) PEI 67
11) NWT 62
12) YK 41
13) NUV 20

Ranked list of provinces and territories where largest proportion of *future* total Canadian COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS may occur, based on current age-specific vax numbers.

#1 is region with highest estimated proportion of total national ICU HOSPITALIZATIONS.

1) ON 69,276
2) AB 23,246
3) QC 22,210
4) BC 18,550
5) SK 6,188
6) NB 3,539
7) MB 3,507
8) NS 2,791
9) NL 1,460
10) PEI 240
11) NWT 207
12) YK 125
13) NUV 80

Correction: tweet above is hospitalizations *not* ICU hospitalizations (copy paste error in tweet text)

Ranked list of age groups where the largest proportion of COVID-19 DEATHS among unvaccinated people may occur, in each province/territory.

Only regions and age groups with above average DEATH rates are listed.

1) ON 80+
2) AB 80+
3) NB 80+
4) SK 80+
5) NL 80+
6) ON 70-79
7) NWT 60-69
8) AB 70-79
9) BC 60-69
10) SK 70-79
11) SK 60-69
12) YK 60-69
13) NB 70-79
14) NB 60-69
15) AB 60-69
16) ON 60-69
17) NWT 50-59
18) NS 80+
19) NUV 80+
20) NL 60-69
21) BC 70-79
22) SK 50-59
23) YK 50-59

24) BC 50-59
25) NS 60-69
26) QC 60-69
27) AB 50-59
28) NB 50-59
29) QC 50-59
30) MB 60-69
31) ON 50-59
32) MB 50-59
33) NS 50-59
34) NL 50-59
35) YK 80+
36) NS 70-79

Ranked list of age groups where the largest proportion of COVID-19 ICU ADMISSIONS among unvaccinated people may occur, in each province/territory.

Only regions and age groups with above average ICU ADMISSIONS rates are listed.

1) NWT 50-59
2) NWT 60-69
3) BC 60-69
4) SK 60-69
5) YK 60-69
6) NB 60-69
7) SK 50-59
8) AB 60-69
9) YK 50-59
10) BC 50-59
11) AB 50-59
12) ON 60-69
13) NB 50-59
14) QC 50-59
15) ON 50-59
16) MB 50-59
17) NS 50-59
18) NL 60-69
19) ON 70-79
20) NL 50-59
21) NS 60-69
22) AB 70-79

23) QC 60-69
24) SK 70-79
25) NB 70-79
26) NWT ***40-49***
27) AB ***40-49***
28) MB 60-69
29) PEI 50-59
30) SK ***40-49***
31) AB ***30-39***
32) SK ***30-39***
33) NB ***40-49***
34) ON ***40-49***
35) BC 70-79

Ranked list of age groups where the largest proportion of COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATIONS among unvaccinated people may occur, in each province/territory.

Only regions and age groups with above average HOSPITALIZATIONS rates are listed.

1) NWT 50-59
2) NWT 60-69
3) SK 50-59
4) YK 50-59
5) BC 60-69
6) SK 60-69
7) BC 50-59
8) YK 60-69
9) NB 60-69
10) AB 50-59
11) NB 50-59
12) ON 80+
13) AB 60-69
14) ON 70-79
15) QC 50-59
16) ON 60-69
17) AB ***30-39***
18) ON 50-59
19) SK ***30-39***
20) MB 50-59
21) AB 70-79

22) NWT ***40-49***
23) AB ***40-49***
24) NS 50-59
25) AB 80+
26) NL 50-59
27) NB 80+
28) SK 70-79
29) NB 70-79
30) SK ***40-49***
31) NWT ***30-39***
32) SK 80+
33) NL 60-69
34) NB ***40-49***
35) NWT ***18-29***
36) NS 60-69
37) QC 60-69
38) NUV ***30-39***
39) MB ***30-39***

40) ON ***40-49***
41) NUV ***18-29***
42) ON ***30-39***
43) NB ***30-39***
44) PEI 50-69
45) SK ***18-29***
46) YK ***40-49***
47) BC ***40-49***
48) NL 80+
49) AB ***18-29***

The health regions and age groups identified above can help us identify where it is most urgent to accelerate vaccination, to reduce deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations.

If goal is to reduce ICU burden in BC health regions so that local capacity is not overwhelmed, vaccination of the following groups should be prioritized:

People 50-69 living in all BC health regions
-highest to lowest priority: Interior, Northern, V Island, V Coastal, Fraser

In BC, if your goal is to reduce the risk of ICU admissions across the whole province, prioritization should be:

People 50-69 living in: Fraser, Interior, Van Coastal, Van Island, Northern (in order).

Anyway, hope this is useful for people working on vaccination across Canada. And for people living/ working in highest risk regions, so they have numbers to show local and provincial decision makers, and so they can show impact of low vaccination rates to their communities.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442310718104039431?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442312680644112392?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442312067818602503?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442313219846991873?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442313670776836097?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442314181697490948?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442314601425555458?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442314936508583936?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442315284740640771?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442315608251674625?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442315910744723458?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442316201284227074?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442316531782733830?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1442315910744723458?s=20