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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
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16 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
For those trying to find the hesitancy and vaccine uptake spreadsheets I've been compiling, including the lists of highest priority groups and regions for outreach, I'm linking them here, and pinning this thread to my profile.

Haven't got them up on a website yet...sorry.
1. Highest priority demographic groups and regions, based on the Jan-April Canadian Community Health Measures survey

The main tab to look at is called: "Highest Priority 50+ Demographics and Regions".

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The data on that tab are sorted from highest to lowest priority, based on risk of death as a percentage of the total number of people in that demographic. It gives a sense of the INTENSITY of the problem in each demographic group and region.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
25 Sep
Here is a spreadsheet with regional breakdowns of:

1) Lives in Canada saved by COVID-19 vaccination
2) Estimated *future* COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions among unvaccinated people in Canada

Based on data for week Sep 18, 2021

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
For provinces from QC west I've provided data for every public health region. I haven't finished public health regional analyses yet for Atlantic Canada and the Territories, but wanted to share this now for people in SK and AB who need the data ASAP.
Data for each of the Atlantic provinces, Nunavut, NWT and Yukon are included--just not broken down yet by public health region.

These data are intended for people who want to help others understand how many lives vaccination has already likely saved. You can use them freely.
Read 74 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
21 Sep
Based on the number of Canadians who were completely unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur if we don't vaccinate faster.

CAN 41,611
AB 6,374
BC 5,881
MB 982
NB 961
NL 388
NWT 60
NS 787
NUV 16
ON 17,703
PEI 65
QC 6,592
SK 1,645
YK 39
As more unvaccinated people in Canada get their first, then second shots, these numbers will go down, but first shots are increasing really slowly in so many Canadian regions.
Estimates were obtained by multiplying numbers of people who remain completely unvaccinated in each age group and region by age-specific rates of ICU admissions from the start of the epidemic in Canada to present, calculated from the @GovCanHealth database by the amazing @JPSoucy
Read 28 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
20 Sep
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun I agree, Ilan. Outside Quebec, and maybe Manitoba, no province appears to be accurately identifying their COVID deaths either. The best we'll get will be excess all-cause mortality. And there is specific cause of death reporting.
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun The problem is that in multiple provinces, particularly those out west, we don't even know how many people died until 18-24 months after the deaths. We won't be able to estimate the toll of the current wave in Alberta likely until 2023.
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun Canada is the only high income OECD country that doesn't legally require deaths to be reported nationally no later than 1 week after they have occurred. There appears to be little interest in this on the part of many provinces.
Read 12 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
18 Sep
There's been quite a concerning vaccination gap emerging for Canadian men (undervaccinated) compared to women, with about 1 million fewer men fully vaccinated than women.

The good news this week is that first and second shot rates for men are clearly speeding up.
Here are the rates of full vaccination for Canadian men, women, girls, boys

12-17: 70.2% (M), 71.6% (F)
18-29: 62.3% (M), 70.0 (F)
30-39: 68.4% (M), 73.8% (F)
40-49: 75.4% (M), 80.0% (F)
50-59: 79.2% (M), 82.9% (F)
60-69: 88.4% (M), 90.1% (F)
70+: M, F similar (>93%) Image
Here's the graph for partial vaccination, from @GovCanHealth .

You can see that more men than women are now getting their first shots, in all age groups except people 70+.

This is good news. Image
Read 7 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
18 Sep
Good morning

This week's Canadian #COVID19 vaccination and death projections,

including estimated dates when C19 deaths will fall below age-specific mortality rates for flu

Based on @GovCanHealth data to Sep 11

🧵 Image
@GovCanHealth 1. Rates of full vaccination: Sep 11, 2021

2. Estimated lives saved by vaccination: Sep 11, 2021

COVID-19 vaccination has saved an estimated 430,000 Canadian lives to date.

We still have another 37,000 left to save. Image
@GovCanHealth 3. Weekly increase in % population fully vaccinated: Sep 4-11, 2021

4. Estimated dates when 100% of population will be fully vaccinated Image
Read 18 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
14 Sep
For example, see here hospitalizations/100K for Saskatchewan compared to Alberta (far right column).

These data are from @covid_canada Tracker.

SK is in worse shape for hospitalization than Alberta, with a lot fewer healthcare resources.
And here is the rate of full vaccination in Saskatchewan compared to Alberta and other Canadian regions.

The only region worse is Nunavut, which has major challenges with access due to its remote location.
Actives cases/100K are as high in Saskatchewan as in Alberta (look at the colour on this map from @covid_canada, not the numbers, which are total active cases in each province).

The preceding map was from @GovCanHealth
Read 7 tweets

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