AHRI just released the latest data on heating and cooling installs.
353k homeowners installed natural gas furnaces in Sept.
Those installs guarantee ~4m tons of carbon emissions / year for the next 20 years.
That's 80m of carbon budget 🔥 in a single month.
#energytwitter
353k homeowners installed natural gas furnaces in Sept.
Those installs guarantee ~4m tons of carbon emissions / year for the next 20 years.
That's 80m of carbon budget 🔥 in a single month.
#energytwitter
We need to get that number to zero ASAP. But we're trending in the wrong direction.
Here are the gas furnace install numbers for the last three Septembers:
2019: 286,870
2020: 351,087 (weird year)
2021: 353,047
Here they are for the last 2 decades (note: 2021 YTD is up 30%)
Here are the gas furnace install numbers for the last three Septembers:
2019: 286,870
2020: 351,087 (weird year)
2021: 353,047
Here they are for the last 2 decades (note: 2021 YTD is up 30%)
Now let's look at air conditioning units ❄️
All a/c runs on electricity. That's good. But most a/c units are really inefficient. That's bad.
So in the short term, installing inefficient units is its own form of fossil-fuel lock-in.
All a/c runs on electricity. That's good. But most a/c units are really inefficient. That's bad.
So in the short term, installing inefficient units is its own form of fossil-fuel lock-in.
We want to see less inefficient a/c installs every month.
And we want more heat pump installs (which heat AND cool homes, despite their terrible name).
Here's the data for Sept 2021:
Inefficient a/c units: 578,553
Heat pumps: 320,992
So about 250k more inefficient than HP.
And we want more heat pump installs (which heat AND cool homes, despite their terrible name).
Here's the data for Sept 2021:
Inefficient a/c units: 578,553
Heat pumps: 320,992
So about 250k more inefficient than HP.
How are those numbers trending?
Here's the average growth rate for each over the last two years:
Inefficient a/c units: 26%
Heat pumps: 19%
Good to see heat pump installs are growing. But still lots of work to do to bend the inefficient curve down.
Here's the average growth rate for each over the last two years:
Inefficient a/c units: 26%
Heat pumps: 19%
Good to see heat pump installs are growing. But still lots of work to do to bend the inefficient curve down.
In the short term, installing inefficient units will lead to more fossil fuel use (until we reach 100% clean electricity).
In the long term, it just makes decarbonization a lot harder.
It means more solar, wind, batteries, transmission, etc.
And that stuff is hard to build.
In the long term, it just makes decarbonization a lot harder.
It means more solar, wind, batteries, transmission, etc.
And that stuff is hard to build.
Lock-in is a weird concept.
A single decision or month of data might seem inconsequential. Who cares what kind of furnace I buy?
But it's effectively a contract with fossil fuel companies that lasts decades.
That's why it's so important to #electrifyeverything ASAP.
A single decision or month of data might seem inconsequential. Who cares what kind of furnace I buy?
But it's effectively a contract with fossil fuel companies that lasts decades.
That's why it's so important to #electrifyeverything ASAP.
As the electrification proverb goes:
The best time to electrify everything was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
/fin
The best time to electrify everything was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.
/fin
Sources:
Monthly install data - ahrinet.org/Portals/Report…
Annual install data - ahrinet.org/resources/stat…
Carbon data - resstock.nrel.gov
Monthly install data - ahrinet.org/Portals/Report…
Annual install data - ahrinet.org/resources/stat…
Carbon data - resstock.nrel.gov
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