NEW: Glasgow climate summit impact on coal:
*cancellation of 90 new coal power projects
*phase out 370 existing plants that didn't have a close-by date before
*95% of world's coal plants now covered by carbon neutrality targets - that require closing essentially all of them
We tallied up all the commitments to "no new coal", ending fossil fuel financing, coal phase-outs and carbon neutrality announced in the run-up to and at the UN climate summit in Glasgow.
750 coal-fired power plants (550 gigawatts) around the world now have a phase-out date, while another 1600 plants (1420 GW) are covered by carbon neutrality targets phase-out. This is up from 380 plants (260 GW) with a phase-out date before the Glasgow process.
90 new coal power projects (88 GW) likely cancelled due to "no new coal" and no new fossil fuel financing pledges - 2/3 of all planned coal outside China.
Another 130 coal power projects (165 GW), most in China&Indonesia, are highly questionable due to carbon neutrality targets. India's target of carbon neutrality by 2070 target might leave room for new coal power plants, but the country's clean energy targets don't.
Not all coal phase-out decisions are aligned with the Paris Agreement goals. Only 250 existing coal power plants (180 GW) are scheduled to close by 2030 in the OECD and 130 plants (100 GW) outside the OECD have a closure date by 2050.
With Germany’s expected 2030 phase-out decision and assuming the United States’ 2035 Clean Power Plan will mean a coal phase out by 2030, the number of coal power plants with a Paris-aligned phase-out date would increase to 510 (460 GW).
🇨🇳 NEW REPORT | China steel sector stalls as investments in coal-based steel plants since 2021 exceed USD 100 bn despite overcapacity & climate goals
❗ China must align investments with ‘dual carbon’ goals: CO2 emissions peak before 2030; carbon neutrality before 2060 👇
📈 China’s crude steel production broke 1bn tonnes again in 2023, the 4th year in a row
Increase in domestic steel consumption in manufacturing & infrastructure + strong demand from Asia & Africa compensated for China's year-by-year real estate decline - down to 18.8% in 2023
📉 Plummeting profitability & increasing liabilities for past 2 years have made China's steel sector financially vulnerable
💡 Uncompetitive producers aggravate problem with excessive capacities
Profit margins for China's producers hit low in 2022, much lower than international
📢 🇨🇳 NEW | 📊Briefing w/@GlobalEnergyMon
China’s new coal power spree continues as more provinces jump on the bandwagon 👇
China's coal power permitting that started in summer 2022 has continued into July 2023.
January-June 2023 saw construction start on 37 GW (gigawatts) of new coal power; 52 GW permitted, of which 10 GW already under construction; 41 GW announced; 8 GW of shelved projects revived.
⚠️ Most of China's new coal power projects don’t meet terms for central government’s new coal permitting.
Provinces building most new coal aren’t using it to support clean energy or meet demand peaks.
This shows there is no effective enforcement of permitting limiting policies.
📢 🇨🇳 NEW
Briefing: China’s steel sector invests USD 100 billion in coal-based steel plants, despite low profitability, overcapacity and carbon commitments 👇
🇨🇳 Chinese steel firms are making significant investments in new, coal-based steelmaking capacity.
Companies received approvals for 384.3 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new ironmaking capacity & 425.9 Mtpa new steelmaking capacity from 2017 to first half of 2023.
On average, approximately 30 Mtpa steelmaking capacity was approved every six months in China, which is almost equal to the total steel capacity of 🇩🇪 Germany.
📢 🇨🇳 NEW | CREA’s monthly snapshot on China's energy & air pollution trends is out now👇
June 2023 saw record output of solar & nuclear power; wind was weak; hydropower dropped more (34% year-on-year in June) due to drought & pressure to save for peak demand season/July–August.
Due to China's hydropower collapse, coal & other thermal power increased in June 2023, by 14%.
The increase in coal power generation drove up demand yet domestic coal output registered weakest growth this year, 2.5%.
Domestic coal quality declined & imports jumped whopping 110%.
In June 2023, China's steel & cement output continued to cool down, with cement falling 1.5% year-on-year & crude steel registering zero growth.
This points to a weak recovery of real estate & other fixed asset investment, despite government loosening & stimulus measures.
📢 BREAKING
The EU ban on crude oil imports from Russia & the oil price cap are costing Russia an est. EUR160 mn/day, expected to rise to EUR 280mn/day in Feb. as refined oil is added. CREA’s new briefing shows how to cut Russia’s cash flow further👇
Our analysis shows that the crude oil import ban & price cap have been effective in slashing the cash flows that Russia uses to fund the attack on Ukraine. Lowering the price cap to $25-35, from the current $60, and cutting remaining oil&gas imports can accomplish even more.
Russia’s earnings from fossil fuel exports fell 17% in December, to the lowest level since the start of the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Captive coal power plants in 🇮🇩#Indonesia highlight a loophole in 🇨🇳#China’s no new overseas #coal pledge & Indonesia’s domestic policy.
Two new #CaptiveCoal plants on China-backed #nickel & #steel complexes secured construction & purchasing agreements from Chinese firms in 2022.
Last week, a presidential regulation in 🇮🇩 #Indonesia listed “National Strategic Projects” as exempted from their moratorium on new #coal — a move that may endanger its #NetZero targets.