Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #nickel
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On Tuesday, the @EUparliament passed a groundbreaking policy framework that will make electric vehicle batteries sold in 🇪🇺 more sustainable – and can serve as a blueprint for battery policies worldwide.🔋⚡️
Here are 4 key aspects of this policy in a short 🧵.👇
#EVs #batteries
Here are 4 key aspects of this policy in a short 🧵.👇
#EVs #batteries
1⃣Responsible and sustainable #mining.
The regulation mandates due diligence obligations for companies selling batteries in 🇪🇺.
Companies are required to identify and mitigate social and environmental risks in the supply chain of cobalt, lithium, nickel, and natural graphite.
The regulation mandates due diligence obligations for companies selling batteries in 🇪🇺.
Companies are required to identify and mitigate social and environmental risks in the supply chain of cobalt, lithium, nickel, and natural graphite.
2⃣Lower emissions in battery production.
The regulation mandates that companies assess and declare the #lifecycle carbon footprint of their batteries.
From 2028, only #EVbatteries produced below a maximum carbon footprint threshold value can be sold in the 🇪🇺.
The regulation mandates that companies assess and declare the #lifecycle carbon footprint of their batteries.
From 2028, only #EVbatteries produced below a maximum carbon footprint threshold value can be sold in the 🇪🇺.
I recently spent two weeks in #Zambia, mainly in Lusaka, meeting clients, conducting research, speaking to government officials. Here are some of my key takeaways 🧵🇿🇲
DEBT - this issue came up everywhere, and with good reason. Not only is it driving macroeconomic instability, but the government is nowhere near concluding a deal. And why? Because its largest creditor, #China, isn't happy with the terms laid out by the G20.
It's NB to note Chinese debt is both bilateral (i.e. issued by govt) and private (e.g., held by companies/individuals). Govts generally don't mind debt repayments being deferred, but private creditors are different - they usually want their money back sooner, even at a loss.
Thought of the day: How many don't understand they own #cyclical equities? And the cycle peaked out in 2022 for 90% and contagion is the order of the day in 2023? #natgas #lumber #coal #oil #uranium #ironore #tin #nickel
#cyclical means you exit as the cycle matures .....that was 2022 if not 2021 for 80% of #commodities. Then 60% will experience a 55-75% fall in spot prices. Then one revisits in 2H 2023 or 2024 for reentry. If one holds through the cycle they don't understand what they own.
#AuraEnergy initial #uranium reserve expansion, we expect this to move from 30mlbs to over 70mlb within the next 30 months. In the next few weeks expect the initial substantial lift in NPV as the project capacity increases to 3mlbs and the AISC falls to around $20. $AEE
30mlb reserve NPV at $75 pricing = A$400m or 60c per share
70mlb NPV = A$1.0bn or $1.30 per share
$AEE #uranium
70mlb NPV = A$1.0bn or $1.30 per share
$AEE #uranium
Swedish assets with pro #uranium mining add another $2-5 per share NPV through 2027.
Note the $2 per share value in #molybdenum, #Vanadium, #nickel
And #zinc at current spots alone.
$AEE #auraenergy
Note the $2 per share value in #molybdenum, #Vanadium, #nickel
And #zinc at current spots alone.
$AEE #auraenergy
1/6 Most of the new #discovery announcements and good first holes ends up as a minor discovery.
How to spot significant discoveries as an investor?
How to spot significant discoveries as an investor?
2/6 Three steps to follow🪜:
1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology
Let's dig in.
1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology
Let's dig in.
🧵The #nickel #exploration success rates by #ASX companies are better in 2022 than the commonly cited 1/1000.
We counted 53 exploration campaigns that focused on new exploration targets. No appraisal, resource drilling.
Of these, 70% were maiden exploration.
We counted 53 exploration campaigns that focused on new exploration targets. No appraisal, resource drilling.
Of these, 70% were maiden exploration.
2/5
30% of the companies drilled historical discoveries/mines. Not suprisingly these yielded no significant results.
Maiden exploration: 15 found no mineralisation, 13 only occurence, but we also had 1 discovery. Yet to be confirmed as significant.
30% of the companies drilled historical discoveries/mines. Not suprisingly these yielded no significant results.
Maiden exploration: 15 found no mineralisation, 13 only occurence, but we also had 1 discovery. Yet to be confirmed as significant.
3/5
From the 53 projects only 5 drilled in the favourable tectonic setting and had quality geochemical/geophysical anomaly support.
These are the targets we should be drilling more! Results are still pending from #S2R and $ADD in this group.
From the 53 projects only 5 drilled in the favourable tectonic setting and had quality geochemical/geophysical anomaly support.
These are the targets we should be drilling more! Results are still pending from #S2R and $ADD in this group.
LiCoO2, LFP, LTO, NMC, LMO y NCA son tipos de baterías de iones de #litio que se utilizan comúnmente en vehículos eléctricos #EVs. Cada uno de ellos tiene sus propias características y ventajas #invertir #mining 🧵👇
LiCoO2: Las baterías LiCoO2 utilizan un compuesto de cobre, hierro y cobalto como material catódico y tienen una alta densidad de energía. Sin embargo, también son relativamente sensibles a los cambios de temperatura y pueden ser menos duraderas que otras baterías.
LFP: Las baterías LFP utilizan un compuesto de hierro y fósforo como material catódico y tienen una baja densidad de energía. Sin embargo, son muy estables y resistentes a los cambios de temperatura y tienen una larga vida útil.
1/ The best place on @Twitter to learn about energy related topics is @Mining_Atoms. But in this thread, I will specifically dive into @Tesla’s battery supply chain.
The results are surprising. I love driving a Tesla, but am I impacting the environment in a positive way?
The results are surprising. I love driving a Tesla, but am I impacting the environment in a positive way?
2/ The key determinant of cost for any EV is the battery itself. From 2010 to 2021, the cost of a lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery fell from $1,200 per kWh to $132 kWh
Breaking Down the Cost of an EV Battery Cell (visualcapitalist.com)
Breaking Down the Cost of an EV Battery Cell (visualcapitalist.com)
3/ Tesla EV batteries: Graphite, Aluminum, Nickel, Copper, Steel, Cobalt, Manganese, Lithium, and Iron. Dominant manufacturer: #China - 56% of global market, then #Korea - 26%, #Japan - 10% and 8% from other countries.
e-vehicleinfo.com/global/ev-batt…
e-vehicleinfo.com/global/ev-batt…
Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....
#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%
Know where you are in the cycle....
#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%
Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
==> Who should take it and why? <==
Discovery of the year @MinesAndMoney
(and others) 👉dropbox.com/s/vhjendkh2n7h…
Discovery of the year @MinesAndMoney
(and others) 👉dropbox.com/s/vhjendkh2n7h…
$ACME.cn with a brine discovery after first drilling in June 22, SP still down YTD #lithium
$GBR.v Dixie's discovery/break through was in.... 2018? Shouldn't be on this list. case closed
1/
RAW MATERIAL SHORTAGES WILL ELIMINATE TESLA'S COMPETITION
The tight supply of raw materials will be the main bottleneck to Tesla's 50%/yr vehicle growth target this decade. It is NOT a good thing $TSLA feels the need to get into mining. Rather, it is a huge warning sign...
RAW MATERIAL SHORTAGES WILL ELIMINATE TESLA'S COMPETITION
The tight supply of raw materials will be the main bottleneck to Tesla's 50%/yr vehicle growth target this decade. It is NOT a good thing $TSLA feels the need to get into mining. Rather, it is a huge warning sign...
2/
that there won't be enough raw materials for most OEMs that have multi-million vehicle/yr growth ambitions. That means the battery input costs will get bid up until OEMs either begin dropping out of the EV race OR the supply of these raw materials increases significantly.
that there won't be enough raw materials for most OEMs that have multi-million vehicle/yr growth ambitions. That means the battery input costs will get bid up until OEMs either begin dropping out of the EV race OR the supply of these raw materials increases significantly.
1/x Looks like everyone is starting to catch up on nickel laterite HPAL Indonesian projects impact on #nickel market.
Detailed thread below - been flagging since Q1.
Bye, bye 👋 low grade nickel sulphides. If you hold one of those I would seriously rethink.
Detailed thread below - been flagging since Q1.
Bye, bye 👋 low grade nickel sulphides. If you hold one of those I would seriously rethink.
2/x Does it mean nickel sulphide discoveries are worthless? 🤔
No! Large, tonnage and high grade nickel sulphides projects have superior economics and will produce profits at lower nickel prices.
They are also rare to discover and are acquired quickly at 1bln+ usd valuations.
No! Large, tonnage and high grade nickel sulphides projects have superior economics and will produce profits at lower nickel prices.
They are also rare to discover and are acquired quickly at 1bln+ usd valuations.
3/x
Nova discovery by Sirius made during bottom of commodity cycle. Went from 5c to 50c in few months. Acquired for 1.8 bln AUD.
ft.com/content/cc8c55…
Nova discovery by Sirius made during bottom of commodity cycle. Went from 5c to 50c in few months. Acquired for 1.8 bln AUD.
ft.com/content/cc8c55…
Oct 12 2022: "Deep-sea miner stock jumps after first seafloor collection since 1970s"
The "#greatreset" (#Commonwealth w/ WEF as secretariat) includes deep sea #mining. The annihilation of #oceans carried out under guise of sustainability.
#UN #SDGs
mining.com/video-shares-i…
The "#greatreset" (#Commonwealth w/ WEF as secretariat) includes deep sea #mining. The annihilation of #oceans carried out under guise of sustainability.
#UN #SDGs
mining.com/video-shares-i…
"The fields in the CCZ represent the largest known, undeveloped #nickel resource on the planet & is estimated to contain over 3 times the amount of #cobalt, almost 2 x the amount of nickel & as much #manganese as all global land-based reserves, combined."
#Privatization of the #oceans will allow for ocean exploration & deep sea #mining - both essential for the fourth industrial revolution infrastructure desired by the ruling class technocrats. #4IR #EVs #Salesforce
Learning thread:
Learning thread:
My updated NAV model:
Company: @ElectraBMC
Sector: #Materials #Refining #Mining
Ticker: $ELBM
CEO: @TrentMell
Recycling Peers: $ABML $LICY
Refining Peers: None (domestically)
#Cobalt #Manganese #Graphite #Nickel #Lithium #Aluminum #BlackMass #EV
*I'm Long-Bullish|Not advice*
Company: @ElectraBMC
Sector: #Materials #Refining #Mining
Ticker: $ELBM
CEO: @TrentMell
Recycling Peers: $ABML $LICY
Refining Peers: None (domestically)
#Cobalt #Manganese #Graphite #Nickel #Lithium #Aluminum #BlackMass #EV
*I'm Long-Bullish|Not advice*
Alternative forward looking valuation multiples (EV to EBITDA & Sales)
NAV valuation contribution
📰📊 @BrookingsInst takes a look at the role of 🇨🇳#China in #nickel from 🇮🇩#Indonesia following our report on China's overseas #coal projects:
brookings.edu/blog/up-front/…
brookings.edu/blog/up-front/…
Captive coal power plants in 🇮🇩#Indonesia highlight a loophole in 🇨🇳#China’s no new overseas #coal pledge & Indonesia’s domestic policy.
Two new #CaptiveCoal plants on China-backed #nickel & #steel complexes secured construction & purchasing agreements from Chinese firms in 2022.
Two new #CaptiveCoal plants on China-backed #nickel & #steel complexes secured construction & purchasing agreements from Chinese firms in 2022.
Last week, a presidential regulation in 🇮🇩 #Indonesia listed “National Strategic Projects” as exempted from their moratorium on new #coal — a move that may endanger its #NetZero targets.
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE
This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V.
This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V.
Reality check:
Low grade #uranium mines with massive secondary credits = low AISC outcomes
The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
Low grade #uranium mines with massive secondary credits = low AISC outcomes
The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
You have been warned $AEE
$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
<thread> Tesla & #Lithium - a decade in the making
A lithium refinery has been in Tesla & Elon Musk’s @elonmusk thinking for ~10 yrs now & in (a serious way) for the best part of 3 yrs
The logic is sound
2020: 70-80% of lithium ion battery costs are raw materials
2010: 20-30%
A lithium refinery has been in Tesla & Elon Musk’s @elonmusk thinking for ~10 yrs now & in (a serious way) for the best part of 3 yrs
The logic is sound
2020: 70-80% of lithium ion battery costs are raw materials
2010: 20-30%
Tesla has filed to build a lithium hydroxide refining facility in Texas (Gulf Coast).
This is a revisiting of its 2020 plan to build a spodumene conversion facility to make lithium hydroxide at #GigaTexas
Originally planned to launch Q4 2022.
This is a revisiting of its 2020 plan to build a spodumene conversion facility to make lithium hydroxide at #GigaTexas
Originally planned to launch Q4 2022.
This #GigaTexas lithium refinery would have been using a new hydromet process, as not to be reliant on sulphuric acid.
Our estimation was a smaller refinery to start with 15,000 tpa lithium hydroxide. Could now be 25,000tpa
@benchmarkmin story>>>
benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exc…
Our estimation was a smaller refinery to start with 15,000 tpa lithium hydroxide. Could now be 25,000tpa
@benchmarkmin story>>>
benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exc…
China's most-traded #IronOre futures plunge 5.9% at night open, coke down 4.8%, coking #coal down 2.8%, hot rolled coils down 2.7%, #SteelRebar down 1.8%.
Benchmark Dalian #IronOre futures extend losses to 6.8% at 669 yuan/ton amid property sector turmoil.
We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the #lithium mine level potential & make an oversupply call
The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore
It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore
It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
To make forecast calls especially for Nickel and Lithium at the moment should be regulated.
Much like our IOSCO price assessments.
There should be a min amount of expert work required to make such high profile calls that impact investors, esp the retail community.
Much like our IOSCO price assessments.
There should be a min amount of expert work required to make such high profile calls that impact investors, esp the retail community.
Slapdash forecasts do a disservice to the all the work the professional publishing world conduct - including our competitors
Rezession voraus
Die Fed erhöht die Zinsen und will die Nachfrage sowie die Preise damit runterfahren.
Zunächst scheint dies zu gelingen.
Eine #Rezession mit Ansage
in diesem 🧵 gehe ich im folgenden auf einzelne Rohstoffe ein:
1/
Die Fed erhöht die Zinsen und will die Nachfrage sowie die Preise damit runterfahren.
Zunächst scheint dies zu gelingen.
Eine #Rezession mit Ansage
in diesem 🧵 gehe ich im folgenden auf einzelne Rohstoffe ein:
1/
2/
#Aluminium tendiert niedriger, die Nachfrage scheint zu sinken:
Aluminium? Wo?
Karosserien,Fahrwerke, Motorblöcke, Getriebe, Heckklappen, Türen, Felgen, Zylinderköpfe, Räder, Effektpigmente für Lacke, Fahrräder, Motorräder, Züge wie ICE aber auch Straßenbahnen
#Aluminium tendiert niedriger, die Nachfrage scheint zu sinken:
Aluminium? Wo?
Karosserien,Fahrwerke, Motorblöcke, Getriebe, Heckklappen, Türen, Felgen, Zylinderköpfe, Räder, Effektpigmente für Lacke, Fahrräder, Motorräder, Züge wie ICE aber auch Straßenbahnen
3/
#Eisen
ebenfalls bereits leicht sinkende Preise zu erkennen
Eisen ist essentiell für Stahl und kann flexibel verwendet werden. In der Bautechnik wird es unter anderem für die Herstellung von Schiffen genutzt oder auch für größere Gebäude
#Eisen
ebenfalls bereits leicht sinkende Preise zu erkennen
Eisen ist essentiell für Stahl und kann flexibel verwendet werden. In der Bautechnik wird es unter anderem für die Herstellung von Schiffen genutzt oder auch für größere Gebäude
1/x If you are investing in #nickel projects pay attention to sulphide vs laterite.
20 m @ 1% Ni
✅ good intercept for sulphide deposit
🔴 poor intercept for laterite
20 m @ 1% Ni
✅ good intercept for sulphide deposit
🔴 poor intercept for laterite
2/x I am surprised how poorly companies label their projects as laterite.. Run search in NR for "laterite" 🔎
3/x So what is a nickel laterite?
Volcanic rocks with a low grade nickel weather in tropical climate and nickel ore concentrates in the weathering profile.
Intercepts of 7-15% of Ni are common on good projects.
Volcanic rocks with a low grade nickel weather in tropical climate and nickel ore concentrates in the weathering profile.
Intercepts of 7-15% of Ni are common on good projects.
1/ Could the #LME #nickel fiasco happen to the #Comex #gold and #silver market?
On my recent Twitter Spaces with @PalisadesRadio I mentioned that we may have a problem with current and future availability of gold and silver bars from the expanded refiner list.
Please retweet!
On my recent Twitter Spaces with @PalisadesRadio I mentioned that we may have a problem with current and future availability of gold and silver bars from the expanded refiner list.
Please retweet!
2/ Back in 2020, the #CME expanded the list of approved refineries whose bars are eligible for good delivery to the Comex. This was due to overwhelming demand for physical product and to maintain an orderly market. bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-ma…
3/ 51 #LBMA approved gold refineries had been added to the eligible brand list for the COMEX 100 (GC 100) gold futures contract. Of the 51 refiner brands, the top countries represented are 12 refineries from China and 7 from Russia.
Another take on China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, etc. China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more. Putin’s invasion/massacre has created additional energy scarcity, inflation, and skyrocketing food inflation. 1/12
Whilst China hasn’t had any material problems with the virus from Wuhan in the past, it’s interesting that their draconian lockdowns (in conjunction with telegraphing the purchase of fewer cargos of LNG and crude) are forcing global economists to ratchet growth expectations 2/12
lower whilst concurrently shifting future demand projections for commodities lower. Everything China desperately needs to acquire is trading down in price as a result of the lockdowns. If we all take a look back, the primary driver of China’s current account moving into 3/12
When #EV OEMs need to become miners has been the Benchmark story of 2022. @benchmarkmin
What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
Future EV demand is surging beyond the ability of the lithium ion battery supply chain to respond in full.
As we approach the end of the decade, the number of EVs that’s OEMs want to produce become impossible to make considering the critical battery raw material volumes in the pipeline … if all existing expansions and new mines make it, in most cases there still wont be enough
