😡😡 What I find very annoying is that an alliance involving only 1 candidate in some constituencies is regularly dismissed as "unworkable, undemocratic and/or would fail" but where is the recent hard data about this as it has not been attempted? 🧵
2/ I completely accept this works both ways i.e. the supporters of a pact/alliance do not have firm evidence that it would work.
The Constitution Society/@ElectCalculus had a go in a poll involving 14,000 respondents, a very big number.The aim was to check the reaction of voters
3/faced with only 1 Opposition candidate as a result of a Lab/LD/Greens pact. We obviously need more evidence & this poll has some aspects which are contentious- number of seats attributed to the Greens & lack of a question on how the voters would vote if there was no pact-
4/But respondents were given the option "wouldn't vote". The poll was done in June 2021, when there was a very high level of popular support for the government on the back of the vaccination strategy.
5/This
research indicates that supporters of the Labour, Liberal Democrat
and Green parties are amenable to voting for a Pact candidate, even if the candidate is not
drawn from their own party. Depending on how the seats are allocated, all three parties would
win from a Pact.
6/The predicted resistance from voters angry at being deprived of a choice, didn't materialise. So of course more evidence is needed but, instead of dismissing a large scale pact/Alliance as impossible & something which would anger the voters, why don't parties ASK them?
7/Could it possibly be because the parties would not like the answer (as shown by the usual suspects immediately attacking the poll)? Let's get the evidence & decide. If the public support it, isn't the true reason that "the winner takes all mentality" is too entrenched?
This Labour report is both interesting & utterly damming. 🧵1/7
It correctly identifies the problems
-to win a majority of 1 seat (i.e. not sufficient to govern effectively) Labour needs to gain 123 seats, a swing of over 13% in England & Wales
This represents an increase in its number of MPs by 60%, SOMETHING NO MAJOR PARTY HAS EVER DONE
- 63% of those seats are in the North, Midland & Wales, mostly held by Conservatives. There is NO ROUTE BACK TO POWER EVEN AS A MINORITY GOVERNEMENT WITHOUT WINNING THOSE SEATS.
Winning them back is essential but not sufficient for a majority
-24% of the 123 seats are in the South
-13% of those seats are in Scotland (16 seats of which 15 are SNP), 14 are in Wales (2 held by PC). IF LABOUR DOESN'T WIN SEATS IN SCOTLAND & WALES, IT CANNOT WIN A MAJORITY
Some interesting replies to this tweet. Quite clearly many respondents resent the strong arm tactics of a party who places on the voters supporting other parties 100% of the responsibility of getting the Tories out while not offering anything in exchange.
If Labour is really intending to win enough votes to govern- likely as a minority government- it will have to get out of its rigid frame of mind. Other parties' appeals to collaboration (both from @TheGreenParty & @LibDems ) have been spurned. Labour grandly announces "we are not
in the business of alliances" in Shropshire. Denis Healey previously described them- grotesquely- as "surrender". This is Labour’s version of the sovereignty obsession. This form of blackmail isn't going down well. The PR debacle at the Conference doesn't exactly inspire
QUESTION TO LABOUR: when we are engaged in a full trade war with the EU, the WA has been partly suspended,the Brexit deal has been terminated by the EU (as we hear will happen) where does this leave the Brexit strategy of @Keir_Starmer ? 🧵1/9
Sitting on the fence is virtually impossible.This killed Labour at the last GE. Improving a trade agreement which is terminated is a non-proposition. So what will be the strategy? Labour will be 100% trapped in another Brexit election in a hellish loop.
Support the government stance & lose your pro-EU voters to @LibDems & @TheGreenParty. Support reinstating the NIP & the TCA: what effect in those Red Wall seats Labour needs which will be fired up on fake patriotism?
Withering editorial in @TheEconomist widely read internationally. Johnson is trashing the reputation of the UK & not just with the Paterson's affair.
"Having strode victorious into Downing Street as one of the architects of Brexit, the PM behaves as if laws are for other people."
"The prime minister is seeking to undermine Britain’s precarious system of checks and balances. When officials responsible for holding ministers to account have tried to do their job, they are made to suffer. "
"The government is neutering independent bodies supposed to hold it to account. It wants to put the Electoral Commission, a watchdog, under the thumb of a Conservative-dominated committee of mps, and to strip it of the power to initiate criminal prosecutions."
👇On the misleading use of Labour rulebook as an alibi against collaboration with other parties.
In summary…
"There is no constitutional or procedural reason why the Labour Party cannot form a Progressive Alliance with the other Centre-Left parties." getprdone.org.uk/the-progressiv…
"The reason why Labour has only ever cooperated fleetingly, in a given seat for a single election, and never cooperated strategically, has not been for any constitutional or organisational reason but simply because the Labour Party did not wish to do so."
"Thankfully, the sobering reality of four successive election defeats and the near-certainty of a fifth defeat to follow in 2024 (or earlier) has started to move more and more Labour supporters to favour cross-party cooperation."
1. At best the polls in the next GE will show the possibility of a hung Parliament 2. Without a plan & a common structured strategy, the Opposition parties will be destroyed by accusations of "coalition of chaos" & the Tories will win. For the public "hung Parliament"= chaos.
3.Unless the parties agree something like 👇 ( or a "lite" form of this) which would also provide an optimistic narrative of renewal and which must of course include PR, we are doomed.
An Alliance can take many forms. What I outlined in the tweet you commented on is a "lite Alliance" version. I should have added: 5. Coordinate attacks on Tories