Tweet

More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

13 Nov

1/ A valuation has two parts:

1) normal operations, which represent business as usual. You value these by taking the present value of future free cash flow.

2) real options value.

Some people are better at determining real options value than others.

morganstanley.com/im/publication…

2/ Some people compare investments that are similar and conclude if X is worth $1 trillion then Y must be worth $100 billion. This is pricing an asset rather than valuing it. The value of an asset may be very different from its price. pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfi…

3/ A difference between then now and 2000 is interest rates. The Fed raised interest rates: three times in 1999 and twice in early 2000. Not just goods and services inflation is being driven by a "demand shock" right now.

Read 4 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

11 Nov

1/ Disney streaming customer net additions have slowed from previous quarters. Will they need to increase CAC? Has churn increased?

Do you know what CAC and churn are? How much is churn and return? Disney knows exactly. variety.com/2021/digital/n…

2/ People do detective work to determine Disney's streaming churn rate. The goal isn't to be precisely right, but instead to understand when the market price may create a likely gap between expectation and reality. There's never certainty. For example: hollywoodreporter.com/business/busin…

3/ "The company expects its Disney+ additions in the second half of fiscal 2022 will be meaningfully higher than the first half of the year. Average monthly revenue per subscriber for Disney+ came in at $4.12, down 9% year over year."

Will Disney increase COGS and CAC?

Read 4 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

6 Nov

1/ Would chips have been in short supply right now even without pandemic?

Software is eating the chips!

"In the second quarter of 2021, the latest for which data are available, the semiconductor industry sold more chips than at any point in history." wsj.com/articles/manuf…

2/ Chip manufacturing capacity must catch up with demand that is accelerating in order for the supply shortage to be reduced.

Part of the solution will inevitably be product redesign that relies less on cheap older chips (eg, 28 nanometer level) and better software solutions.

3/ I think I've been in the top one percent of understanding the power of software, and all my life I've underestimated it. Never a year passes that I don't get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther.

Everyone else has too. No exceptions.

Computer of Wheels (COW)

Read 5 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

5 Nov

1/ "When Motorola visited us, prepared to make a presentation with an elaborate slide show, Craig McCAw said, “Put away the slides and just discuss your proposal,” completely unsettling them and, not incidentally, seizing the upper hand."

That's Craig!
amazon.com/Flywheels-Citi…

2/ "After a meeting at AT&T’s Bell Labs in New Jersey, Craig McCaw led us on an unplanned tour around the building, barging into laboratories and asking scientists to explain the projects they were working on. AT&T executives trailed behind, not knowing what to do."

Classic!

3/ "Craig had an irreverent management style. At banquets, he was prone to lobbing dinner rolls. In the office, he might suddenly launch a squirt-gun attack. Many of us kept our own, loaded and ready behind our desks to fight back."

True! Also: Nerf gun attacks/counterattacks.

Read 10 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

5 Nov

1/ The birth of a commercial Internet in 1993,coincided with the start of what I call my "miracle year." In his new book Tom Alberg tells the story of Jeff Bezos convincing him to invest in the Amazon seed round. It's a great story. I was in the building. amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B095DX…

2/ When Bezos first met with Alberg McCaw Cellular's sale to AT&T was in process. Tom's office was upstairs and I was on the first floor. Tom was on the board of our startup at the time. When Jeff and Tom met them second time we were both in a new building where Craig had moved.

3/ Tom Alberg tells the story of Jeff Bezos working hard to raise Amazon's $1M seed round at a level of detail I've never seen or heard before. Tom describes Jeff's projections and his rationale for investing. I love great stories, but this one is special.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-on-…

Read 4 tweets

Tren Griffin

@trengriffin

1 Nov

The future is a probability distribution.

The global chip supply set of issues is multiple complex adaptive systems interacting (AKA a lollapalooza). Solutions for some firms include product redesign.

Experts who predict a specific date aren't experts. wsj.com/articles/globa…

"As of October, times for chip deliveries have ballooned to 22 weeks. It is longer for the scarcest parts: 25 weeks for power-management components and 38 weeks for the microcontrollers the auto industry needs."

Both uncertainty and unknown unknowns are present. Complexity.

"Some buyers trying to place new orders are getting delivery dates in 2024... The smartphone industry will grow by just 6% year-over-year, or half the initial forecast from earlier this year, because of chip woes, according to Counterpoint Research."

Complexity is increasing.

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Tren Griffin

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?