Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Let’s step back from the #COP26 text.

What’s the actual global situation?

It’s probably too late for the Greenland ice sheet.

The Gulf Stream could collapse any time.

We’re headed for well over 2 deg warming, not well below.

In brief: we’re out of time.

A 🧵 /1.

Unless the #COP26 outcome is rapidly, radically enhanced, with far more extensive & binding commitments & associated urgent, sustained actions.

The alternative is a high probability of hell on Earth. Sooner than your think.

You absolutely ain’t seen nothing yet. /2.

Nearly 20 years ago I had the great privilege of leading the UK’s first ever international energy & climate strategy - on the back of the publication of the UK’s first energy (& climate) white paper in decades. /3.

Great colleagues in the DTI, FCO, Downing Street & across government, business & academia, made it possible.

The then cabinet led by Tony Blair, & the government’s chief scientific advisor, David King, were terrific. The leadership we needed. /4.

We knew then most of what we know now.

We were more far-sighted than many others. But, in the end, the UK & the world have to recognise that far too much of the intervening period has been squandered.

Why look back in this way? /5.

Because, in the early 2000s you’d probably have given us 8/10 for our work. Maybe 9. If you were sceptical (some were), maybe 7.

The point is, relative to what might have been expected, our approach was bold, well thought-through & offered hope. /6.

But even then, it wasn’t as good as it could have been. Or, in the face of actual requirements, should have been.

In reality, we needed to go way beyond what we managed to agree. And fast. /7.

#COP26’s relative success or failure is beside the point.

Time has caught up with us. All.

We haven’t, collectively, caught up with the scale, urgency, breadth & depth of the task.

Only absolute success counts from now on. /8.

Negotiators who “succeed” in extracting something inadequate from a horribly difficult political situation have, of course, done a skilful job. We can all respect that.

Yet, they’ve failed.

Failure is unacceptable. /9.

Here’s what has to happen, starting right now:

Fix #COP26

Glasgow is over. The work has just begun. /10. End

P.S. The UK international strategy, nearly two decades ago, depended on great people, as I’ve said.

Here are a few (sorry to all not mentioned) without whom it wouldn’t have been possible. /(i)

Sarah Cooke, loaned from the PM’s policy unit/ CO, brought sharp intellect & great energy, as did Valerie Caton at the FCO. Rob Wright, Neil Hirst & Joan Macnaughton, senior DTI officials, provided generous & invaluable support. /(ii)

So did the DTI Secretary of State, Patricia Hewitt. Similarly, Graham Hand & the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, at the FCO. And, in the academic world, Dieter Helm. /(iii)

In reality, scores of people, from the UK & internationally, were involved directly, & hundreds indirectly.

In addition to Tony Blair & David King, already referred to, a final mention should go to John Ashton, … /(iv)

… a former UK diplomat & formidable expert & campaigner, who was a huge help. Without him, so much of the UK & international effort on the climate emergency either wouldn’t be the same, or perhaps wouldn’t exist at all. /(v) End