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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
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14 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
In the Lake Charles area, Jeremy Stine held State Senate District 27 for Rs -- he improved on Trump's margin by a few points. There are a few swingy precincts west of the city, but this is a pretty polarized seat. In 2019, JBE made the red areas look less red. #lagov #lalege Image
As @WinWithJMC says, Calcasieu Parish used to be a no-man's land for Rs 20-30 years ago.
This is pretty noisy (given the much lower turnout tonight) but Stine = red, Trump = blue. Stine clearly did better in Lake Charles proper. Image
Stine owns a popular lumber/home improvement store in the area, so sort of like the Peter Meijer of Lake Charles.

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More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
16 Nov
OH-9 is a bit friendlier to Kaptur than in some other drafts; it would be Trump by about 4% last year.
Corday +3, Brown +16, Trump +2 (2016)
30 years ago, that OH-14 would be a great seat for Dennis Eckart.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
15 Nov
Image
i dont think (Phil) Scott runs for Senate, but this pic is a lot of my TL todat
As I was saying:
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
7 Nov
The Charlottesville metro area -- home to the @Center4Politics -- voted about 8 points less Dem this year than in 2017 (D+24 to D+16). McAuliffe also netted about 4K fewer votes out of the area than Northam, though he did gain in higher-growth parts of Albemarle County. #VAGov
T-Mac gained votes north of Cville, off of Route 29 -- just from driving through there routinely, I've noticed a lot of new development. The blue precincts on the third map also follow I-64 to the western part of the county, where the Crozet area is seeing something similar.
Not the best labeling, but reminded me how in the 2017 Dem primary, Perriello's strength (gold) in NOVA followed the major highways (50, 66). Guessing he did relatively well w/ the younger, transient demo (basically me at the time, as I was in Loudoun County) that commutes to DC.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
21 Oct
Not saying I 100% buy into this, but I do wonder if there's a certain subset of VA voters who are just against the concept of giving McAuliffe (or any ex-governor) another term. Partisanship may still override something like that, though.
Then again maybe a counterpoint to this is Kaine and Warner keep getting reelected statewide.
I forget who it was, but someone on here was talking about the 1940 election and the no third term for FDR movement— got me thinking that this would somewhat be the Virginia equivalent. But, of course, FDR got his third term.
Read 5 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
18 Oct
The Presidential vote of the districts David Price held over his career -- #NC04 was competitive earlier on:

1988: Bush +11
1992: Clinton +8
1996: Clinton +4
2000: Gore +4
2004: Kerry +13
2008: Obama +25
2012: Obama +45
2016: Clinton +39
2020: Biden +34
Guess what year the district became a super Dem sink for lol
Given his popularity in the swingy NC-4, he was seen as a potential challenger to Jesse Helms in 1990 (Dems nominated Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt instead). Image
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
18 Oct
This helped Dole in 2008: she lost by 8.5% that year, but improved in swaths of southeastern NC. The dark red swing in Robeson is the Lumbee precincts. White Dems in rural Columbus were drifting away by then, too. Hagan still carried the area, but a pro-R trend was there #ncsen Image
it's rare that I do a map that doesn't make Hagan look good, but this probably had more to do with Dole 😅
Plus these two counties would have been Trump +22% last year, so a Dem winning it by 20% looks impressive by today's standards.
Read 4 tweets

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