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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
J. Miles Coleman
@JMilesColeman
Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
Mar 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In the Huntsville AL area, Democrats have flipped state House District 10 tonight. In 2022, Marilyn Lands (D) lost by about 7 points. This time, she won by almost 25%, sweeping nearly everything.

This was a stronger margin here than Doug Jones's 23-point spread from 2017. Image I should have worked a pun into this tweet --"the Land(s) is all blue now!"--but oh well.
Jul 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Much of Flores' district was represented by a Republican ten years ago. People keep forgetting about Blake Farenthold. Tbf, he flipped it from carrying the Corpus Christi area (out of the district now), but many of TX-34's counties have had R representation.
Dec 31, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
During this last year, I’ve had several on this site ask me for political book recommendations.

I said I’d put together a thread by the end of the year, so as promised, here are some books I’ve read (or gotten decently into) in 2021.

I’ll say it’s sort of heavy on biography. Tuesday Night Massacre by @TheJohnsonPost

Focuses on four key Senate races in 1980; really gives you a sense of where the modern congressional campaign came from. amazon.com/Tuesday-Night-…
Dec 31, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thanks to @vest_team for putting out Mississippi data! I did this quickly, but this is Espy (blue) vs Biden (red). Espy did almost 7 points better -- his overperformance stood out in northwest MS (ancestral Dem), and not as much in the Delta (which he used to represent). Espy also ran (relatively) well ahead of Biden along the Gulf Coast
Dec 29, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
RIP

The 2010 elections were during my first semester of college. I remember watching the returns on Election Night and seeing this image -- I jumped up and yelled at my (apolitical) roommate "HARRY REID WON!!" Image I thought he would pull it out, but that he'd barely squeak by -- he ended up wining by almost 6 points, taking a majority of the vote.
Dec 9, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Four gubernatorial rating changes from @kkondik and me today:

MD: Leans D -> Likely D
MN: Likely D -> Leans D
NV: Leans D -> Toss-up
NM: Likely D -> Leans D

Also, notes on some races we *didn't* change over here: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar… And a reminder:
Dec 8, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The Harrisburg area 😬 Image not surprisingly, the first two complaints on the portal are about CDs 6 and 11 app.mydistricting.com/legdistricting…
Nov 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
OH-9 is a bit friendlier to Kaptur than in some other drafts; it would be Trump by about 4% last year. Corday +3, Brown +16, Trump +2 (2016)
Nov 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
i dont think (Phil) Scott runs for Senate, but this pic is a lot of my TL todat
Nov 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In the Lake Charles area, Jeremy Stine held State Senate District 27 for Rs -- he improved on Trump's margin by a few points. There are a few swingy precincts west of the city, but this is a pretty polarized seat. In 2019, JBE made the red areas look less red. #lagov #lalege Image As @WinWithJMC says, Calcasieu Parish used to be a no-man's land for Rs 20-30 years ago.
Nov 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Charlottesville metro area -- home to the @Center4Politics -- voted about 8 points less Dem this year than in 2017 (D+24 to D+16). McAuliffe also netted about 4K fewer votes out of the area than Northam, though he did gain in higher-growth parts of Albemarle County. #VAGov T-Mac gained votes north of Cville, off of Route 29 -- just from driving through there routinely, I've noticed a lot of new development. The blue precincts on the third map also follow I-64 to the western part of the county, where the Crozet area is seeing something similar.
Oct 21, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Not saying I 100% buy into this, but I do wonder if there's a certain subset of VA voters who are just against the concept of giving McAuliffe (or any ex-governor) another term. Partisanship may still override something like that, though. Then again maybe a counterpoint to this is Kaine and Warner keep getting reelected statewide.
Oct 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Presidential vote of the districts David Price held over his career -- #NC04 was competitive earlier on:

1988: Bush +11
1992: Clinton +8
1996: Clinton +4
2000: Gore +4
2004: Kerry +13
2008: Obama +25
2012: Obama +45
2016: Clinton +39
2020: Biden +34 Guess what year the district became a super Dem sink for lol
Oct 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This helped Dole in 2008: she lost by 8.5% that year, but improved in swaths of southeastern NC. The dark red swing in Robeson is the Lumbee precincts. White Dems in rural Columbus were drifting away by then, too. Hagan still carried the area, but a pro-R trend was there #ncsen Image it's rare that I do a map that doesn't make Hagan look good, but this probably had more to do with Dole 😅
Oct 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
How did Bush win NC's four most populous counties in 2000? What did they look like? —

After Clinton lost NC twice, natl Dems conceded it for 2000. Vote changing + migration + better organizing got results like Wake County moving from Leans R to Safe D curiouscat.qa/JMilesColeman/… Image Forgot I had this too, which shows the same thing. "Only" a Dem +16% map looks pretty tame now.
Jun 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
CRYSTAL BALL: Some takeaways from what we have so far of the #NYC primary, notes on #IASen, and a few polling observations. From me, @kkondik, and @ParakramKarnik.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar… To be clear, the "Second Place" map isn't a "second preference" map -- we won't know that for a while, but I thought it would still be interesting to look at.
Jun 16, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
POV: You're Scott Brown having a nightmare Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
Jun 2, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01 In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
May 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!? Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.

Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Feb 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar… And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
Feb 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.