J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU alumn. He/him
16 Jun
POV: You're Scott Brown having a nightmare Image
Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
A big part of the documentary was about Sen. Landrieu's work on hurricane recovery -- this was shortly after Katrina. Here she is giving Lincoln and Cantwell a tour. She wanted to make sure as many members as possible saw the destruction. Image
Read 13 tweets
2 Jun
Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
Read 8 tweets
4 May
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!?
Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.

Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Like, I've had some people who work on campaigns -- who's hearts are into it -- show me hypothetical redistricting maps that they've done, or stuff like that.

My first reaction wasn't "well, you're treating it like a sport here..."
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image
As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.
This Facebook post was also the same month I joined Twitter so go figure.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
PAIN
blue - obama -> biden
red - mccain-> trump
pink - obama -> trump
though a lot of light blue McCain -> Biden in Charlotte
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Here's the change in North Carolina from the 2008 to 2020 presidential races. Both Obama and Trump narrowly carried the state. But basically every suburban precinct -- even in the smaller cities out east -- got more Democratic, while the rest of the state moved red.
The swing to Biden in precincts that were relatively "suburban" out east really stood out to me. Wilson, Rocky Mount, Kinston, Goldsboro, etc. Even a few around Lumberton(!).
Nash County (where Roy Cooper is from) has one of the more unique paths: it was McCain -> Obama -> Trump -> Biden. For Senate it was also Tillis '14 -> Cunningham '20.

The blue there is west of the city of Rocky Mount.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Ironic that Dems are usually criticized as a 'coastal' party, but I think Georgia's relative *lack* of a coastline helps Dems -- it attracts fewer R retirees. The gains NC Dems made in New Hanover County (Wilmington) have easily been erased by R growth in Pender & Brunswick.
and this is even before you throw in Carteret and Craven.
It was close, but Brunswick County wouldn't even vote for Mike McIntyre in 2012 -- that's when it was gone for basically *any* Dem.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jan
Before #InaugurationDay closes out, have to say I thought a lot about how happy Sen. Hagan would be today. Biden visited her after she fell sick.
This was pre-pandemic (she died in late 2019).

They didn’t get her seat back but not her fault NC is becoming FL.
Strike the FL comparison — I meant as in seemingly slightly R for everything.

I knew I shouldn’t have gone there.
Read 5 tweets
6 Jan
well that was a fun election cycle
You guys know what I mean
Next person who brings up NY-22 is getting a block
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov 20
Taylor Swift’s home county, Berks PA, swung 1.7% against Trump — but he improved in its largest city, Reading. Why? The city is 2/3 Hispanic.

Biden won Reading 72%-27%, down from Clinton’s 78%-19%. More evidence Biden’s struggles with Hispanics weren’t just a Sun Belt thing.
“But Miles, you can’t make sweeping generalizations like that!”

Fair, but fits with what we’ve seen so far. If I drilled into the precincts results, we’d see probably something like this.
Had some other stuff planned but guess I’m gonna have to do a precinct map of this, to show some of you guys what I mean. Given what we’ve seen in other northern states, this was a reasonable inference to make.

And no, I’m not “blaming” any group or another for the result.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov 20
With its votes certified, Biden won Minnesota by just over 7%; the same overall result that Mike Dukakis got in 1988. The farm crisis helped Dukakis in Greater MN, which was lighter red. MN-8 is now an R-leaning district. But MN-4 (St. Paul) & MN-5 (Minneapolis) are darker blue. Image
One of those times where I wish we could edit tweets, but MN-8 should have been a shade *darker* blue in 1988. It was Dukakis +19%.

Was debating putting the CD breakdowns on the graphic, and I should have -- I would have caught this. Image
I seriously beat myself up about these small errors, but I think it's best to be transparent!
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov 20
Around Philadelphia, Biden carried the four suburban collar counties by a combined 59%-40%. This was an improvement from Clinton's 55%-41% margin in 2016. A mild blue shift was broad, though some bleeding in Lower Bucks stands out. Chester County, at Biden +17, was a bellwether. Image
I double-checked Lower Oxford, the dark red in southwest Chester. It was Clinton +22 to Biden +2. There's a HBCU there -- Lincoln University -- so I wonder if schools being online impacted that.
Lower Oxford also cast *fewer* votes than 2016 (rare for the area) so that sort of suggests my guess.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul 18
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Read 8 tweets
13 Apr 18
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%.
#SCOWIS #wopolitics #ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Read 11 tweets
15 Jan 18
Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol #ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol #ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Read 6 tweets
7 Jan 18
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms.
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936.
Despite the county flipping to Clinton, a quartet of districts there (or at least partially contained within OC) reelected R incumbents to Congress: #CA39, #CA45, #CA48, and #CA49.
Read 19 tweets