Share this page!

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
Twitter logo
18 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The Presidential vote of the districts David Price held over his career -- #NC04 was competitive earlier on:

1988: Bush +11
1992: Clinton +8
1996: Clinton +4
2000: Gore +4
2004: Kerry +13
2008: Obama +25
2012: Obama +45
2016: Clinton +39
2020: Biden +34
Guess what year the district became a super Dem sink for lol
Given his popularity in the swingy NC-4, he was seen as a potential challenger to Jesse Helms in 1990 (Dems nominated Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt instead). Image
He was a Duke professor before getting into politics, and one of the almanacs says, "His academic background commands a certain respect" (how bout that @jacobfhsmith!) but notes that he lacks the obtuseness of many in academia.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with J. Miles Coleman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
21 Oct
Not saying I 100% buy into this, but I do wonder if there's a certain subset of VA voters who are just against the concept of giving McAuliffe (or any ex-governor) another term. Partisanship may still override something like that, though.
Then again maybe a counterpoint to this is Kaine and Warner keep getting reelected statewide.
I forget who it was, but someone on here was talking about the 1940 election and the no third term for FDR movement— got me thinking that this would somewhat be the Virginia equivalent. But, of course, FDR got his third term.
Read 5 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
18 Oct
This helped Dole in 2008: she lost by 8.5% that year, but improved in swaths of southeastern NC. The dark red swing in Robeson is the Lumbee precincts. White Dems in rural Columbus were drifting away by then, too. Hagan still carried the area, but a pro-R trend was there #ncsen Image
it's rare that I do a map that doesn't make Hagan look good, but this probably had more to do with Dole 😅
Plus these two counties would have been Trump +22% last year, so a Dem winning it by 20% looks impressive by today's standards.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
16 Oct
How did Bush win NC's four most populous counties in 2000? What did they look like? —

After Clinton lost NC twice, natl Dems conceded it for 2000. Vote changing + migration + better organizing got results like Wake County moving from Leans R to Safe D curiouscat.qa/JMilesColeman/… Image
Forgot I had this too, which shows the same thing. "Only" a Dem +16% map looks pretty tame now.
Update: theoretically yes, but Wake won't be an >80% Dem county soon. Have to cut the R margins in the exurban counties. Image
Read 6 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
23 Jun
CRYSTAL BALL: Some takeaways from what we have so far of the #NYC primary, notes on #IASen, and a few polling observations. From me, @kkondik, and @ParakramKarnik.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
To be clear, the "Second Place" map isn't a "second preference" map -- we won't know that for a while, but I thought it would still be interesting to look at.
This first point is probably the most stereotypical Election Twitter acknowledgement I’ve ever put on a map.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
16 Jun
POV: You're Scott Brown having a nightmare
Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
A big part of the documentary was about Sen. Landrieu's work on hurricane recovery -- this was shortly after Katrina. Here she is giving Lincoln and Cantwell a tour. She wanted to make sure as many members as possible saw the destruction.
Read 14 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
2 Jun
Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @JMilesColeman has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @JMilesColeman!

Read all threads by @JMilesColeman

:(