This helped Dole in 2008: she lost by 8.5% that year, but improved in swaths of southeastern NC. The dark red swing in Robeson is the Lumbee precincts. White Dems in rural Columbus were drifting away by then, too. Hagan still carried the area, but a pro-R trend was there #ncsen
Not saying I 100% buy into this, but I do wonder if there's a certain subset of VA voters who are just against the concept of giving McAuliffe (or any ex-governor) another term. Partisanship may still override something like that, though.
Then again maybe a counterpoint to this is Kaine and Warner keep getting reelected statewide.
I forget who it was, but someone on here was talking about the 1940 election and the no third term for FDR movement— got me thinking that this would somewhat be the Virginia equivalent. But, of course, FDR got his third term.
The Presidential vote of the districts David Price held over his career -- #NC04 was competitive earlier on:
1988: Bush +11
1992: Clinton +8
1996: Clinton +4
2000: Gore +4
2004: Kerry +13
2008: Obama +25
2012: Obama +45
2016: Clinton +39
2020: Biden +34
Guess what year the district became a super Dem sink for lol
Given his popularity in the swingy NC-4, he was seen as a potential challenger to Jesse Helms in 1990 (Dems nominated Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt instead).
How did Bush win NC's four most populous counties in 2000? What did they look like? —
After Clinton lost NC twice, natl Dems conceded it for 2000. Vote changing + migration + better organizing got results like Wake County moving from Leans R to Safe D curiouscat.qa/JMilesColeman/…
Forgot I had this too, which shows the same thing. "Only" a Dem +16% map looks pretty tame now.
CRYSTAL BALL: Some takeaways from what we have so far of the #NYC primary, notes on #IASen, and a few polling observations. From me, @kkondik, and @ParakramKarnik.
To be clear, the "Second Place" map isn't a "second preference" map -- we won't know that for a while, but I thought it would still be interesting to look at.
This first point is probably the most stereotypical Election Twitter acknowledgement I’ve ever put on a map.
Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
A big part of the documentary was about Sen. Landrieu's work on hurricane recovery -- this was shortly after Katrina. Here she is giving Lincoln and Cantwell a tour. She wanted to make sure as many members as possible saw the destruction.
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)