John Authers reviews the various measures and arguments used to minimize inflation over the last 9 months and concludes the argument is over. He is right. His piece should be required reading at the Fed Board of Governors, Treasury and White House.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It’s not base year effects. Two-year inflation rates from before Covid now aberrantly high.
It’s not just a few components. Mean, trimmed mean, median, specially selected core measures are all way up.
It’s not just a few components. Mean, trimmed mean, median, specially selected core measures are all way up.
It’s not just mean reverting transitory components. Sticky price measures aberrantly up as well.
Inflation expectations in surveys and in 5-year financial instruments are no longer anchored.
Massive increases in house prices and market rents have not yet fed into the CPI where shelter is 40 percent of the core measure.
Massive increases in house prices and market rents have not yet fed into the CPI where shelter is 40 percent of the core measure.
With wages having lagged behind prices recently, COLAs coming back, quit and vacancy rates continuing to rise from record levels, and hiring bonuses played out wage inflation is surely likely to accelerate.
Meme stocks, start-ups, NFTs, retail option buying are all manifesting froth reminiscent of late 1999 and the fall of 1929.
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