The US & EU have had large drops in coal CO₂ emissions per capita over the last decades. They have stable energy use & aging coal infrastructure, so new energy sources displace coal.
India is still growing from very low energy per person, & has a young coal fleet.
2/
Oil CO₂ emissions per capita are very low in developing countries, particularly India. The US & EU are struggling to reduce oil use.
3/
Gas CO₂ emissions per capita are also very low in China & India, though growing rapidly in China (India uses very little gas, regardless of per capita).
Little indication of gas use per capita dropping anywhere.
4/
All countries need to get out of coal, oil, & gas, with any remaining offset with expensive or risky Carbon Dioxide Removal (afforestation is risky because of permanence issues).
Is India & unabated coal the problem? I suspect there are bigger elephants in the room...
5/
I have no problem with text on 'phase out coal', I have a problem that it does not say 'phase out coal, oil, & gas', & India gets blamed for changing it to 'phase down coal'. Did I hear the US or EU push to include phase out/down oil & gas in the text?
6/6
And thanks to @Anduril100 for noticing I made a mistake on the global per capita emissions in the coal, oil, & gas figures (I have the total per capita). Woops...
Here are the correct figures & they make more sense!
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You may have heard that after revisions to land-use change emissions, total global CO₂ emissions are approximately flat over the last decade (black line).
But, how much do we revise carbon budget components each year?
Let's have a look...
1/
Fossil CO₂ emissions are revised each year, particularly the last decades. We update data & improve methods. Chinese data has had major revisions & cement was completely revised in 2018, plus lots of smaller improvements.
Land-use change (LUC) emissions are much more uncertain:
* 2014-2015: one bookkeeping model used
* 2016-2019: two bookkeeping models used
* 2020-2021: three bookkeeping models used
* 2021: major update of land-use forcing (change) datasets
After dropping 5.4% in 2020, global fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to increase 4.9% [4.1-5.7%] in 2021, finishing just 0.8% below 2019 emission levels.
"Everyone wants to keep the dream of 1.5°C alive. In every practical sense you are kidding yourself if you think that we are remotely heading towards 1.5°C"
The UNFCCC Synthesis Report says NDCs will lead to a 5% rise in emissions from 2019 to 2030. This is 16% above 2010 levels, as opposed to ~50% below as required for <1.5C. unfccc.int/news/updated-n…
If global CO₂ emissions stay at net zero, either:
* All countries need to be net zero ~2050, or
* Rich countries have net negative emissions post-2050, allowing developing countries to emit longer post-2050.