Of the top-6 largest aggregated emitters globally, India is the only one with per capita emissions below the global average.

What about coal, oil, gas per capita?

robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2021/index.…

1/
The US & EU have had large drops in coal CO₂ emissions per capita over the last decades. They have stable energy use & aging coal infrastructure, so new energy sources displace coal.

India is still growing from very low energy per person, & has a young coal fleet.

2/
Oil CO₂ emissions per capita are very low in developing countries, particularly India. The US & EU are struggling to reduce oil use.

3/
Gas CO₂ emissions per capita are also very low in China & India, though growing rapidly in China (India uses very little gas, regardless of per capita).

Little indication of gas use per capita dropping anywhere.

4/
All countries need to get out of coal, oil, & gas, with any remaining offset with expensive or risky Carbon Dioxide Removal (afforestation is risky because of permanence issues).

Is India & unabated coal the problem? I suspect there are bigger elephants in the room...

5/
I have no problem with text on 'phase out coal', I have a problem that it does not say 'phase out coal, oil, & gas', & India gets blamed for changing it to 'phase down coal'. Did I hear the US or EU push to include phase out/down oil & gas in the text?

6/6
And thanks to @Anduril100 for noticing I made a mistake on the global per capita emissions in the coal, oil, & gas figures (I have the total per capita). Woops...

Here are the correct figures & they make more sense!

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More from @Peters_Glen

8 Nov
We have a crisis in 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 emissions data...

The core problem is that many developing countries do not have the capacity or incentive to report regular & accurate data.

washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…

1/
This is an impressive job done by the Washington post. I would not have thought of using the UNFCCC data, but it was a great idea...

@chriscmooney, @eilperin, @desmondbutler, @JohnMuyskens, @anu_narayan, @NaemaAhmed

Method here:
washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…

2/
The UNFCCC data in developed countries is pretty good, & perhaps even the gold standard. But we still need independent checks.

I would not even think of using UNFCCC data for developing countries, as it is incomplete, & buried deep within pdfs. Manual data entry required.

3/
Read 11 tweets
5 Nov
You may have heard that after revisions to land-use change emissions, total global CO₂ emissions are approximately flat over the last decade (black line).

But, how much do we revise carbon budget components each year?

Let's have a look...

1/ Image
Fossil CO₂ emissions are revised each year, particularly the last decades. We update data & improve methods. Chinese data has had major revisions & cement was completely revised in 2018, plus lots of smaller improvements.

More details: zenodo.org/record/5569235

2/ Image
Land-use change (LUC) emissions are much more uncertain:
* 2014-2015: one bookkeeping model used
* 2016-2019: two bookkeeping models used
* 2020-2021: three bookkeeping models used
* 2021: major update of land-use forcing (change) datasets

Uncertainty remains high! Beware!

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET 2021 🧵

After dropping 5.4% in 2020, global fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to increase 4.9% [4.1-5.7%] in 2021, finishing just 0.8% below 2019 emission levels.

globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/i…

1/
Coal & gas are now back above their pre-pandemic (2019) levels, while oil remains suppressed.

Assuming oil returns to 2019 levels in the next year or two, a drop in coal use is required to avoid further emissions growth.

2/
China grew in 2020 & especially 2021, now with solid growth since 2016.

Other major countries had a rebound which puts them back on their decade trends.

The recovery is also uneven across smaller countries (all others).

3/
Read 12 tweets
2 Nov
"Everyone wants to keep the dream of 1.5°C alive. In every practical sense you are kidding yourself if you think that we are remotely heading towards 1.5°C"

So why the optimism? #COP26

businessgreen.com/feature/403897…

1/
The world has made progress from where we were 10 years ago (2010), but on the “current policy scenario” emissions will continue to rise.

According to UNEP EGR, emissions will remain flattish to 2030, if governments implement the necessary policies.

unep.org/resources/emis…

2/
The UNFCCC Synthesis Report says NDCs will lead to a 5% rise in emissions from 2019 to 2030. This is 16% above 2010 levels, as opposed to ~50% below as required for <1.5C.
unfccc.int/news/updated-n…

3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
THREAD🧵

Is it time to move beyond net zero emissions & start discussing net negative emissions?

Why? To allow developing countries to reach net zero later (fairness) & help them escape poverty while still limiting warming to 1.5°C.

@aniruddh_mohan sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

1/
The carbon budget for 1.5°C is depleting rapidly, with a large share used by today’s developed countries.

Even if developed countries mitigate fast, the carbon space remaining for developing countries is minuscule.

(also see cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/cicer…)

2/
If global CO₂ emissions stay at net zero, either:
* All countries need to be net zero ~2050, or
* Rich countries have net negative emissions post-2050, allowing developing countries to emit longer post-2050.

3/
Read 12 tweets
13 Oct
Did you know that 30% of cumulative CO₂ emissions are from land-use change?

If the starting point is 1750 or earlier, this share just goes up.

essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/32…

1/ Image
Another factoid. Half of global CO₂ emissions in 1950 were from land-use change. That is not so long ago!

The declining share of land-use change in the total is not because the world ended deforestation, but coal, oil, & gas grew.

2/ Image
CO₂ emissions from land-use change are incredibly uncertain. Uncertainty is 50% or more.

There are also definition issues in what is defined as anthropogenic (what is a carbon sink?).

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets

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