"The British General Election of 2019" is now available on Amazon. A quick thread of reviews... @stephenkb calls it "An exhaustive, well-researched, informative and highly readable account. A must for anyone who wants to understand British politics"".
Sky's @adamboultonSKY calls us "the experts we – and the nation – need to tell us what really happened and to explain why" and says our book "Painstakingly and perceptively...exposes the sources of what is going on in British politics today.”
ITV's @AnushkaAsthana calls our book“A fascinating take on this unprecedented period of politics - boiling down the madness of the past few years of British politics into clear, concise and insightful analysis.”
The Mirror's @PippaCrerar says our account is “A comprehensive romp through the dramatic run-up to the 2019 general election...Packed with anecdotes, data and analysis, this is a must read for anybody who wants to understands what comes next.”
The Times' @Dannythefink "To be able to identify every tree but never lose sight of the wood is a very difficult skill, but one these authors possess." He calls the book "A consequential account of a consequential election".
The Spectator's @IsabelHardman calls our "fascinating, detailed and well sourced account" "a rare mix of authoritative and funny " and says "anyone wanting to go near another election should not only read it but keep it as a talisman against making the same mistakes again."
The New European's @campbellclaret calls our book "A must-read for anyone wanting to understand how Brexit, a changed Labour Party and a changed Tory Party combined to give the Tories a majority they are now exploiting to the full...”
The FT's @GeorgeWParker : “A riveting read, explaining the deep currents running through the 2019 "Brexit election" and the way the country's political map was changed beyond recognition. Fresh insights from the people in the room bring this remarkable story to life.”
The Sunday Times' @Gabriel_Pogrund “This is more than the definitive study of the last general election: it is a map and compass for anyone trying to navigate the politics that that event has bequeathed us...will serve as a resource for any student of politics for years to come.”
The Observer's @andrewrawnsley calls it "The authoritative account...Lucid explanation of complex events and forces is combined with penetrating analysis of the causes and effects of a highly consequential election.""
The Indy's @johnrentoul : "The new authors have managed to maintain and even enhance the authority of the long-running series...now as essential a part of the British election tradition as the motorcade to Buckingham Palace for the winner to be invited to form a government."
Newsnight's @lewis_goodall : "Perhaps the most frequent question I’m asked by exasperated viewers and readers is ‘what the hell has happened in politics?’- from now on I’ll simply refer them to this book.”
Sky's @KateEMcCann calls our new book "An unmissable retelling of one of the most complex and politically brutal periods we may ever know, and how it shaped the political landscape we have today."
The CEO of ConservativeHome @wallaceme says "This book is essential reading for anyone wanting to get under the skin of the most consequential election for decades...a foundational text for understanding a political revolution which will continue to play out for years to come."
The Observer's @soniasodha "From the role of Brexit, to perceptions of the party leaders, to the election's consequences: this is the authoritative account of the 2019 general election campaign and is required reading for anyone with an interest in contemporary British politics."
The Guardian's @GuardianHeather "The essential guide to the Get Brexit Done campaign of 2019, from the UK’s foremost elections experts. How Boris Johnson was able to bulldoze his way to a majority; what went wrong for Jeremy Corbyn, and much else besides. A must-read."
David Sanders, Professor of Govt, University of Essex: "Brilliantly written in easy accessible language...it should be compulsory reading for anyone who wishes to understand both the electoral result in 2019 and the likely prospects of the major parties in the future."
Colin Rallings, Emeritus Professor of Politics, University of Plymouth: "The new team maintain the standard of their predecessors with a mix of shrewd judgement, pertinent comment, and robust statistical analysis."
Perhaps a book you'd like to add to your Christmas reading list? If so, you can buy it here, with a chunky discount on the usual price: amazon.co.uk/British-Genera…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The general trend in the polls is quite clear if you take the averages (thus ignoring the noise from sampling variation and ST effects) - slow but steady decline in Cons since "vaccine bounce" peak in early summer, and slow but steady rises in Lab and Green numbers
To me the most interesting polling story that no one is talking about is the rise of the Greens - they were polling at record levels even before COP26, and had a very strong local elections performance in May too. Double digit Grn shares now common.
Strong Green polling is a bit of a double edged sword for Labour - probably comes from voters who would be Lab rather than Con if forced to choose, so weakens Lab position. But in the harsh climate of a FPP GE with few Grn targets many of these votes may end up in the Lab column
And another scandal driven by-election on the way soon, it seems. Super-interesting one too, given controversial circumstances in which Webbe got the seat, the massive swing against her in 2019 and the open ambitions of her predecessor Keith Vaz to recover seat he held 1987-2019
A whopping 15 point swing against Labour in Leicester E in 2019, by a country mile largest swing against the party in a highly diverse seat. Leicester E's predominantly British Indian community really did not like the late imposition of Corbyn ally Webbe en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leicester…
As for Vaz, who is chair of the local party, he has been on manoeuvers for a while - either for himself or a family member... huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keith-va…
Lets review the last 24 hrs:
Govt whips vote to gut standards oversight, barely wins
Opposition refuses to participate in new kangeroo court
Cabinet ministers make fools of themselves defending kangeroo court
Govt abandons kangeroo court and MP it was created to save
MP resigns
(I should add MP resigns after finding out the govt has abandoned him when a BBC journalist phones him while he is out shopping. No one from the govt thought to let him know).
Coming opposition by-election campaign will presumably be months of telling North Shropshire voters exactly how and why they have to elect a new MP. Not really much need to do anything else.
Interesting thread - a couple of thoughts it prompts. Firstly, if the "nothing matters" scenario is defined as "one party is dominant in the polls and nothing seems to shift this" then there are several long periods of this being the case in last 40 yrs or so
1983-1989: "Nothing matters, Cons have big poll lead and majority"
1993-1997: "Nothing matters, Lab has huge poll lead, Cons are doomed
1997-2006: "Nothing matters, Lab has big poll lead and majority"
That's 19 years in the last 38 - or 50% of the time
However, most of the last 15 years has been in the alternative "stuff might matter" scenario - either polling is tight, or Commons balance of power is tight, or both. So a whole political generation has come of age with that as the norm. Political dominance is unusual to them
I don't think this problem is limited to climate change - miserablism handicaps all sorts of progressive campaigns. Telling people everything is awful and going to get worse is a great way to motivate your core activists, but a terrible way to motivate anyone else.
I have noticed this time and again on imm and race, two areas I research. Any time I post some of the wide range of evidence showing that racial prejudice is in steady, LT decline, or that immigration attitudes are improving, my replies fill up with progressive miserabilists.
It is a curious mentality I still rather struggle to understand (being by nature a cautious optimist). I think part of it is an Eeyorish wallowing in the awfulness of things, but a bigger part is status signalling - "I am smart &virtuous because I recognise the horror of it all."