🧵There are many arguments that could be made against China's Zero-Covid policis, but significant negative economic impact is not the best one.
So far impacts on aggregate service economy at best is muted.
wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-11-1…
So far impacts on aggregate service economy at best is muted.
wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-11-1…
Virus policies affected service sectors the most, but aggregate services are expanding by both PMI measures. 
High Frequency data Baidu Congestion Index mostly on track with last year for top cities, except Beijing, which likely has more to do with its political city.
The disconnect:
English news, Shanghai Disney 33k tourists "locked" for test is considered negative news.
In China, Shanghai is considered exemplary for having the least impact of Covid policy on its citizens. Many other cities are scolded w. Shanghai as comparison
English news, Shanghai Disney 33k tourists "locked" for test is considered negative news.
In China, Shanghai is considered exemplary for having the least impact of Covid policy on its citizens. Many other cities are scolded w. Shanghai as comparison
News like this, and the hidden, unmeasurable cost for China, not measurable economic impact are better arguments for abandoning Zero-Covid after significant Vaccine coverage.
theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…
theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…
Oct China 70 cities:
m/m New Construction, 52 cities Price Decrease,
Existing, 64 cities.
y/y Existing Housing Price
Tier 1 cities +6.7%
Tier 2 +2.5%
Tier 3 +1.0%
Good for leaders to talk, but economy still relatively weak.
m/m New Construction, 52 cities Price Decrease,
Existing, 64 cities.
y/y Existing Housing Price
Tier 1 cities +6.7%
Tier 2 +2.5%
Tier 3 +1.0%
Good for leaders to talk, but economy still relatively weak.
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