A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
For total energy supply, both domestic and imports increased. China obviously likes to have some self-reliance, but it exports a lot, and imports a lot. It needs the world in many areas. The narrative of complete self-reliance is just narrative. 4/5
When push comes to shuffle, Coal imports <10% of Coal supply, is one energy resource China has most control, in production and domestic coal futures trading. Last few days it restricted financial speculation in onshore coal futures market which lead to coal price decline. 5/5
China becomes less energy independent over time, in 2019 with 1/4 energy supply imported. @Twitter when will you allow a word edit in a tweet?

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More from @liqian_ren

19 Oct
Typical China VPN $10/mon allowing people visit websites outside China. This VPN policy also showed how unusual the Non-profit Only edu. policy came out, as many Chinese regulations generally follow the experimentation first in some areas and allows some provincial discretion.
Recently there were some rumors on China education shrinking from current 12 years pre-college into 9 yrs. It is true that 12 experimentation areas are designated, including Shanghai and a city from Zhejiang where I grew up. But the 12 to 9 yr policy details are rumors.
Points helped me evaluate the rumor as rumor. Testing from Elementary to Middle School is already not required so odd to show up as new policy. Shanghai being the richest w. most pampered citizens, it will be unlikely to be experimented on in such fashion. 163.com/dy/article/GMK…
Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%

imf.org/external/pubs/…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
Some coal mining fatality numbers. With China coal in focus, couldn't help but thinking how 20 years back, there seemed a tragic coal mining accident every month on Chinese news. Yet this year, the biggest tragedy seemed to be the frozen to death Marathon runners in Gansu. /1
Typically US has the best open data, with No. of miners and deaths decreasing significantly. %of death has plumeted too, with 0.01% of miners death in the US, which with <100k miners means <100 people each year. /2
According to Ministry of Emergency magt. end of last century annual deaths were 9506, but lowered to 316 in 2019. The lower death also partly due to smaller number of miners in China which is about 3473k now.
/3
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:

Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”,72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”,3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”,67.6% (49.6%) "Same",8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
Read 14 tweets
10 Oct
1/14. A thread on India/China. A rumored but likely authentic notice of #Walmart moving it's "Supplier Enablement Team" from #China to #India has been circulating on Chinese social media. Is this the beginning of business decoupling? A few pointers.
2. First, my understanding is Supplier Enablement team is to help suppliers getting their business efficiently so Walmart has efficiency in its own part of business. It is likely tied to Walmart commitment to source $10 Billion of India-Made Goods Each Year by 2027.
3. But is this a leading event in a significant shift of international businesses moving from China to India? It remains to be seen & an active area of attention. Southeast Asia are the common denominator in many of these supply decisions on the ground.
Read 19 tweets
9 Oct
4. Is this regulation something new? It is officially codifying existing facts on the ground. The rumor is after the Edu regulation debacle/Edu Minister fired, this is govt trying to set it officially, so private capital doesn’t come in, then got banned, raising another uproar.
5. Will @caixin_intel /@Caijing be banned now? Likely not. They are state owned media, as Twitter labelled them thus, even though in China, they are considered somewhat opposition media and got article censored left and right.
6. What about Weibo/Tencent? First order effect are small because they were only in news distribution business, never in having actual journalists and news creation business. But there are some secondary effects.
Read 11 tweets

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