🧵 A landmark civil court case in Chinese A share securities fraud just had a significant verdict ($385 million). The significance is not just in dollars.

Kangmei Pharm. (600518) accounting fraud 2016-1018, officially uncovered in 2019, unofficially by social media 2018. /1
It's first time, China Securities Investor Services Center (ISC) filed as plaintiff in representative of investors.

ISC, a non-profit financial institution and is under the direct administration of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

isc.com.cn/html/zxjs/

/2
Notice the murky status of non-profits. Its website ends with .com.cn, which for English readers may thought as for-profit companies.

China skeptics are right to be skeptical as ISC directly administered by CSRC (China's SEC), a govt entity.

On the ground China is complex /3
First time:

5 board members liable: in founder-centered companies, they can't be rubber stamps with no consequences.
They are liable for 35% of the verdict ($132mil)

Rest on the founders and its accounting firm, the person who signed off the annual report. /4
A very interesting anecdote of this case is that original questioning of Kangmei annual report came from Chinese social media, on 2018 Oct 15th, with a series of wechat subscription articles questioning its numbers.

2018 Dec 29, official CSRC notice of investigation

/5
The other compare and contrast with Luckin Coffee case is fraud was uncovered with longer lag (3yrs) vs Luckin Coffee (1yr).

Politics aside, remains to be seen whether US exchanges delisting law actually helps US investors more, w. US listing~=higher accounting standards /6
Anyone interested in reading the original 44-page verdict in Chinese, here is the link and case number.

No doubt Internet and social media has helped fraud uncovering and govt disclosure in this case, which would be unthinkable 30 years ago. /7

pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN20211…
For the same subject, @Wikipedia's English page almost always has better information than its Chinese page.

Wonder why it couldn't simply translate, or lack of readership for its Chinese page means less resource.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kangmei_P…
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BA%B7…
Kangmei case a verdict, not settlement. Defense could still appeal. Whether the money will be there to pay still need to work out.

The FIRST ever personal bankruptcy case in China happened 4 days ago, another landmark.

Justice and Liberty meaningless slogans without details.

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More from @liqian_ren

15 Nov
🧵There are many arguments that could be made against China's Zero-Covid policis, but significant negative economic impact is not the best one.

So far impacts on aggregate service economy at best is muted.

wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-11-1…
Virus policies affected service sectors the most, but aggregate services are expanding by both PMI measures. Image
High Frequency data Baidu Congestion Index mostly on track with last year for top cities, except Beijing, which likely has more to do with its political city. Image
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
Founder: "Global Semiconductor Supply Chain is 400b business, but China pork is 2T. My PhD is in Semi but now I am in using Chips/BigData on pig farm/insurance business."

I talk to a small Chinese business founded by
Singaporean. Here are Qs asked
soundcloud.com/chinaoftomorro…
1. About yourself and how you end up founding the company in China?

2. As a small business, what are the top 3 challenges? And what are the top 3 benefits of doing business in China

3. Why headquartering in Shanghai? And why choosing Chengdu to base your R&D operations.
4. You/your co-founder, your chief data scientist got PhDs in Singapore's premium university. What's the benefit and challenges of doing business as a Singaporean
5. On pig monitoring, who are your main competitors in China?
6. Do you plan to branch out from pig farms?
Read 7 tweets
24 Oct
1. DingDing just put out a very long essay(in Chinese) on slowly improving China-US relationship. We talked on the difficulties of starting/running thinktank in China. Intl. Relations not an area of my research so my skepticism is qualified but here are some interesting charts.
2. This chart illustrated the way Chinese experiences America differently from how Americans experience China, which is mainly brandless "made in China" goods.

Chinese didn't consume as much "made in America" goods as they buy more goods from American firms operating in China.
3. As I have tweeted before on a China/India supermarket chain comparison, Walmart is the 4th largest supermarket chain in China. And this is true across many other industries where US firms have top brand recognition.

Read 10 tweets
22 Oct
A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
Narrative No. 1: Behind every China celebrity scandal, there is an unsavory social news(perhaps the peasant killing a neighbor's family news?) from which attention needs to be diverted.

Don't know whether that is true, but widely believed, or joked.
Narrative No. 2: #PBOC never wants to be seen doing bidding of the market. If the market calls for a RR/rate cut, it will not, as long as annual growth >5%. That's why all big heads say there is enough liquidity for real estate sector.

Again, narrative, hard to backtest though. Image
Narrative No 3: If English news says Xi facing resistance in implementing property tax/policies, good indicator these policies are coming.

Again, narrative economics that can't be backtested.

Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Typical China VPN $10/mon allowing people visit websites outside China. This VPN policy also showed how unusual the Non-profit Only edu. policy came out, as many Chinese regulations generally follow the experimentation first in some areas and allows some provincial discretion.
Recently there were some rumors on China education shrinking from current 12 years pre-college into 9 yrs. It is true that 12 experimentation areas are designated, including Shanghai and a city from Zhejiang where I grew up. But the 12 to 9 yr policy details are rumors.
Points helped me evaluate the rumor as rumor. Testing from Elementary to Middle School is already not required so odd to show up as new policy. Shanghai being the richest w. most pampered citizens, it will be unlikely to be experimented on in such fashion. 163.com/dy/article/GMK…
Read 6 tweets

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