1. DingDing just put out a very long essay(in Chinese) on slowly improving China-US relationship. We talked on the difficulties of starting/running thinktank in China. Intl. Relations not an area of my research so my skepticism is qualified but here are some interesting charts.
2. This chart illustrated the way Chinese experiences America differently from how Americans experience China, which is mainly brandless "made in China" goods.

Chinese didn't consume as much "made in America" goods as they buy more goods from American firms operating in China.
3. As I have tweeted before on a China/India supermarket chain comparison, Walmart is the 4th largest supermarket chain in China. And this is true across many other industries where US firms have top brand recognition.

4. And significant share of US firms are profitable in their Chinese business, with expectation of revenue increasing.
5. For all the politics behind the trade conflicts, the hard number negotiated is the best starting point.

The pandemic derailed many China imports but it is an area with hard numbers that Chinese effort can be assessed objectively as the world gets back to more normal.
6. With Energy crunch in China, it is not hard to see China could ramp up energy imports. China is on track to hit target for farm imports.

Of course the chronic complaint of a Chinese businessman is they want to buy high-tech US manufactured goods but are not allowed.
7. I am open but not yet convinced that the relationship will get better. But several macro strategists we talked believe both US and China will grow with surprise on the positive side, with an investment race on, even if relationship didn't get better.
8. Where public opinion is a guide but fickle. Environmental regulations and taxes are two big complaints of Chinese businessmen I talked the last 5 years.
9. UBS forecast Q4 GDP 2.7%, Normura 3%. UBS 2020 forecast 5.6%, suggesting more on Q4 slow from supply chain/energy but back to trend growth in 2022.

A buy side economist joked Bloomberg is one of the top opposite signal. We'll find out in 6 months.

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More from @liqian_ren

22 Oct
A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
Narrative No. 1: Behind every China celebrity scandal, there is an unsavory social news(perhaps the peasant killing a neighbor's family news?) from which attention needs to be diverted.

Don't know whether that is true, but widely believed, or joked.
Narrative No. 2: #PBOC never wants to be seen doing bidding of the market. If the market calls for a RR/rate cut, it will not, as long as annual growth >5%. That's why all big heads say there is enough liquidity for real estate sector.

Again, narrative, hard to backtest though. Image
Narrative No 3: If English news says Xi facing resistance in implementing property tax/policies, good indicator these policies are coming.

Again, narrative economics that can't be backtested.

Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Typical China VPN $10/mon allowing people visit websites outside China. This VPN policy also showed how unusual the Non-profit Only edu. policy came out, as many Chinese regulations generally follow the experimentation first in some areas and allows some provincial discretion.
Recently there were some rumors on China education shrinking from current 12 years pre-college into 9 yrs. It is true that 12 experimentation areas are designated, including Shanghai and a city from Zhejiang where I grew up. But the 12 to 9 yr policy details are rumors.
Points helped me evaluate the rumor as rumor. Testing from Elementary to Middle School is already not required so odd to show up as new policy. Shanghai being the richest w. most pampered citizens, it will be unlikely to be experimented on in such fashion. 163.com/dy/article/GMK…
Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting

#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to

#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock

GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%

3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
Some coal mining fatality numbers. With China coal in focus, couldn't help but thinking how 20 years back, there seemed a tragic coal mining accident every month on Chinese news. Yet this year, the biggest tragedy seemed to be the frozen to death Marathon runners in Gansu. /1
Typically US has the best open data, with No. of miners and deaths decreasing significantly. %of death has plumeted too, with 0.01% of miners death in the US, which with <100k miners means <100 people each year. /2
According to Ministry of Emergency magt. end of last century annual deaths were 9506, but lowered to 316 in 2019. The lower death also partly due to smaller number of miners in China which is about 3473k now.
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:

Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”,72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”,3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”,67.6% (49.6%) "Same",8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
Read 14 tweets

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