It's kind of funny, but I left my phone on silent and slept in today.
Glad I did. Seeing $PROG at $5 when I finally woke up was immensely satisfying.
Gamma still incoming. We need to hold $4.20 today and maintain the momentum. More options have been bought and exercised ITM.
I actually sold 50% of my $5/$7.5 that I was holding for 11/19 & waited for a dip, full disclosure.
As it turns out, I now have an even BIGGER position in $PROG because of these calls, and I have enough buying power in all my accounts to exercise all my ITM calls for Fri.
Reason why I sold those OTM calls is because we had a huge volatility spike, so I know that I can sell them for profit and buy them back cheaper when the stock relaxes, which it did down to $4.25
Just a little lesson in day trading.
Fibonacci extensions are awesome btw.
The gamma ramp on $PROG for 11/19 is still massive.
We now have 154,305 calls ITM at $4.50 and below.
That's MASSIVE! 12% of the float is ITM! That's just incredible!
Expect the options chain to open up for December and January, at which point, the gamma ramp could grow.
The options chain for DEC is rapidly growing, so expect a lot of these options to start rolling over.
I want to remind everyone that OTM options are still risky and you should be very careful if you choose to buy them, especially this close to expiration.
As for the stock itself, if this price continues running, and all these options expire ITM, those $7.50 Nov puts that are being targeted to go OTM will absolutely crush shorts.
Those puts have fallen by 15% already. If they go down another 10%, short risk will be astronomical
If those puts bleed to nothing, shorts will lose every penny they've invested on the options chain, not to mention stocks sold short plummetting to a 500% loss.
I'm going to cover one last item on $PROG today. I was looking at the Unusual Whales FLOW that Hootmoney posted, and there is definitely something happening here.
The OI on $5 and $7.5 calls for $PROG went absolutely nuts in the afternoon today, and I only just noticed.
Almost all of the bearish volume came from selling call options at the end of the day, which I STRONGLY suspect is being done in order to quickly secure premium and scalp some cash before the options expire.
This is a very common action, but for it to happen in these numbers...
... holy shit. There are 111,295 calls OTM on $PROG between $5 and $7.50
That's a combined 11.13M shares on the table.
Those weren't there this morning.
A fair amount of these may be retail, but many times more are likely coming from market makers & HFs.
This error happens so frequently in trading that it has actually caused squeeze events because a stock rallied, and in the FOMO scramble, other stocks with similar tickers have rocketed with them.
This is a really good way to lose money just because you didn't spell check your ticker symbol.
Make sure you know where your money is going before you hit that buy button.
$PROG OTC/Darkpool activity indicates that algos and institutions are the main responsible parties for this price action today.
We continue to see tons of selling pressure routing to the exchanges whilst.
Reminder to use directed market orders to send your busy to the exchange.
This is a speculative explanation, but I have noticed that because of the plethora of available shares in dark pools, it seems likely that MMs will buy large sums of shares in DPs to grab an inventory of shares on the cheap.
This allows MMs to fulfill buy orders from their inventory instead of buying on the exchange, preventing the NBBO from being affected. Meanwhile, they can route any sells directly to the exchanges on a selective basis to create the illusion of massive selling volume.
For those that like to daytrade on ETFs, $IWM is severely oversold, and @unusual_whales flow is obscenely bullish following this dip.
An alert was fired for a whale buy on the $253 calls expiring 12/10, which are surprisingly cheap at $0.35 on the ask side.
Darkpool volume📈💥
Looks like a nice reversal incoming for the Russell.
It's always a good idea to have some side plays going to earn you a little bit of money, and if you're one of the #AMCAPES, betting on the Russell indirectly helps #AMC as well as it's part of that ETF.
I had a tiny bit of buying power left after I finished exercising my $PROG calls, and wanted to jump on something a bit more... diversified?
Just a nice little swing trade on the side that I noticed looks pretty juicy, so I'm gonna follow that whale.
I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that $PROG will announce an offering, even at these prices, before they or their biopharma partner announce the terms of their partnership, as both parties know it will cause a jump in value.
Even if a dilution comes, there is only 13m shares available to offer, and Athyrium has been scooping up every single offering that wasn't direct to market.
There aren't enough shares available to do any real damage & the offering would be bought within 3 days at this volume.
Suffice to say, I'm not even remotely worried about dilution. Even if it happens, I'll just set limit buys and get more shares at a discount.
It won't be enough to destroy a squeeze if retail simply holds and buys.