I'm going to cover one last item on $PROG today. I was looking at the Unusual Whales FLOW that Hootmoney posted, and there is definitely something happening here.

The OI on $5 and $7.5 calls for $PROG went absolutely nuts in the afternoon today, and I only just noticed.
Almost all of the bearish volume came from selling call options at the end of the day, which I STRONGLY suspect is being done in order to quickly secure premium and scalp some cash before the options expire.

This is a very common action, but for it to happen in these numbers...
... holy shit. There are 111,295 calls OTM on $PROG between $5 and $7.50

That's a combined 11.13M shares on the table.

Those weren't there this morning.

A fair amount of these may be retail, but many times more are likely coming from market makers & HFs.
There is a very slim possibility that we could see a run tomorrow or Friday.

If that happened, and these options ran ITM, it would bring the total ITM calls up to 225k calls or 22.5M shares...

24% of the float.
SI is still 19% of the FF
This creates a potential supply crisis.
Again... this is a very, very, VERY slim possibility, but ...

if #PROGGERS build enough momentum to send $PROG to $7.51+ by Friday close, the number of shares to cover would rival that of Athyrium's majority holding on the #PROG itself.
I talked about $90M in pure buying volume on Sunday before we opened the week being the amount needed to send $PROG beyond $5.

We more than achieved those numbers and hit our goal. We absolutely crushed it.

But this is a chance to achieve total victory.
Right now, I am estimating approximately 3.8M-4M shares of selling is what caused $PROG to break below that $5 support level.

That's approximately $19M - $20M in money required to buy back that whole dip.

If that happens, then the price can slingshot straight back past $5
This kind of momentum is extremely difficult if not completely impossible to predict, but it's worth pointing out that this week isn't over yet.

I've got a little dry powder coming in tomorrow, so here's the strategy I'm gonna be looking for.
There is massive stored potential in $PROG right now below $4.50.

The purpose of pushing the price down AH was to set up for accumulation tomorrow, on top of trying to push calls OTM.

If #PROGGERS don't get scared, don't waver, and don't flinch, this can backfire on shorts. 🚀
I am NOT telling anyone what to do. This is absolutely not financial advice.

Hell... it's an extremely risky decision, but I'm setting a limit-buy order for $0.05 bid on $5.5 calls for $PROG

There is at least a 90% chance these will expire totally worthless so DO NOT COPY ME
I am expecting shorts to attack hard early tomorrow. This will cause OTM call value to fall.

On the off chance that $PROG squeezes beyond $5.50 before Friday, not only would these calls multiply in value by 2000% (from $0.05 to $1.00 premium), but it would also annihilate shorts
I'm planning to buy a fuck-ton of extremely stupid $5.50 calls expiring this Friday.

Again.... 90%+ chance these expire worthless. Total gamble

Nobody should ever do this unless they are prepared to lose every single penny.

I am banking on the price to slingshot before Friday
I am fully expecting to lose every single penny I'm betting on this play. Can't stress this enough...

That being said, I see a remarkable possibility that if bulls take control before Friday again, that it could carry $PROG beyond $7.50 with all this gasoline on the logs.
The match that can light this candle? $20M
That's it.

There are over 133k investors following #PROG on WeBull alone.

That's $150 per investor.

So I'm gonna buy some calls and shares to try to do my part to push this thing over the cliff.
This is just what I'm doing with my money. As far as I'm concerned, every dollar I throw down on those $5.50 calls might as well be flushed down the toilet.

That's how slim this possibility is.

Everyone should do what they think is right for them.
As always, do what's right for you.
Never bet the farm.
Don't risk more than you're willing to lose.
Have a trading plan.
Stick to it.

Don't change anything just because some jackass on twitter has some math and pretty charts.

Especially me.

This is MY YOLO...
Wish me luck

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with True Demon

True Demon Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TRUExDEMON

17 Nov
Wrong ticker, homie. That'd $PRG... not $PROG.

You've got the wrong company.
This is a warning in common investing mistakes.


This error happens so frequently in trading that it has actually caused squeeze events because a stock rallied, and in the FOMO scramble, other stocks with similar tickers have rocketed with them.
This is a really good way to lose money just because you didn't spell check your ticker symbol.

Make sure you know where your money is going before you hit that buy button.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
$PROG OTC/Darkpool activity indicates that algos and institutions are the main responsible parties for this price action today.

We continue to see tons of selling pressure routing to the exchanges whilst.

Reminder to use directed market orders to send your busy to the exchange.
This is a speculative explanation, but I have noticed that because of the plethora of available shares in dark pools, it seems likely that MMs will buy large sums of shares in DPs to grab an inventory of shares on the cheap.
This allows MMs to fulfill buy orders from their inventory instead of buying on the exchange, preventing the NBBO from being affected. Meanwhile, they can route any sells directly to the exchanges on a selective basis to create the illusion of massive selling volume.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
Really liking this Wyckoff pattern here. $PROG is still on it's way to greatness. This little retest of $4.80-$5 is just confirmation.

Even if $5 - $7.50 calls expire OTM, this was a massive victory.

I've closed/rolled/exercised all of my 11/19 call positions.
Most of my remaining contracts are set up for January for safety reasons. (Always give yourself more time than you think you need.)

But the pattern looks like it's going to play out to completion before Dec 17, so I bought a big load of calls on the dip for 12/17 too.
At this point, bulls have done so much damage to shorts this month that I have supreme confidence that the squeeze is coming soon.

And while I do not recommend FOMO-ing into any stock for any reason, $PROG is showing the strongest signs of squeezing of any other play this week.
Read 11 tweets
17 Nov
For those that like to daytrade on ETFs, $IWM is severely oversold, and @unusual_whales flow is obscenely bullish following this dip.

An alert was fired for a whale buy on the $253 calls expiring 12/10, which are surprisingly cheap at $0.35 on the ask side.

Darkpool volume📈💥
Looks like a nice reversal incoming for the Russell.

It's always a good idea to have some side plays going to earn you a little bit of money, and if you're one of the #AMCAPES, betting on the Russell indirectly helps #AMC as well as it's part of that ETF.
I had a tiny bit of buying power left after I finished exercising my $PROG calls, and wanted to jump on something a bit more... diversified?

Just a nice little swing trade on the side that I noticed looks pretty juicy, so I'm gonna follow that whale.

$253c@12/10 👍
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
On the topic of $PROG Dilution...

I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that $PROG will announce an offering, even at these prices, before they or their biopharma partner announce the terms of their partnership, as both parties know it will cause a jump in value.
Even if a dilution comes, there is only 13m shares available to offer, and Athyrium has been scooping up every single offering that wasn't direct to market.

There aren't enough shares available to do any real damage & the offering would be bought within 3 days at this volume.
Suffice to say, I'm not even remotely worried about dilution. Even if it happens, I'll just set limit buys and get more shares at a discount.

It won't be enough to destroy a squeeze if retail simply holds and buys.

At worst, or would just delay it. I'm
Read 5 tweets
17 Nov
Oof, I wish I hadn't slept in today. Could have made a real nice day-trade. Oh well.

Anyway, I see $PROG is doing awesome. Broke through two support levels in pre-market, and fell back to $5 before finding support.

All-in-all, pretty healthy correction.
Once we establish $5 as the new level of strong support, which it looks to becoming so, then we can expect to see another leg-up. $5.50 is a lovely target that we can easily break to put another level of call options in the money.

Lo and behold, Dec calls are filling up too.
Shorts are still going to have a hard time borrowing shares at this point. Util is 99.9% and the net returns from two days ago are apparently already being borrowed again, which just means more money to take from shorts.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!