What an absolutely incredible day for $PROG. We didn't quite break that $5 area of support, but that wasn't the goal today. Our goal was to break $4 and we left it far behind us in opening 5 minutes of the day and never looked back.
We saw TONS of action on in the options market today, with the OTM chain blowing up massively as support flooded into the stock, from the surge to $5.
The volume on $4+ strikes is absolutely incredible, but what's more, exercising on deep ITM options was equally impressive.
Now we have Wednesday ahead of us, and we are threatening to open up the options chain above $7.50 now that we have cracked through 4 new strike levels.
That's as bullish as it gets.
What's more, tons of puts have gone OTM and have lost more than 70% of their value below $4.50
Needless to say, today was a really REALLY bad day to be short on $PROG.
The $5 strike for calls and puts is the level to beat tomorrow, and we tested it 3 times today.
That wall is pretty much the only thing standing between us and the moon right now.
Premium is burning on the put side now, and anyone holding puts below $4.50 is VERY unhappy.
What's more? Shorts are starting to get out. They're getting scared, and utilization is still 99.90%
Lending volume is still low, and CTB remains at around 99% on average.
Now I want to take a second to be very real with everyone. There is a good chance we see a retracement tomorrow in the morning.
There are a lot of calls deep ITM that are far above max-pain, which means a huge loss to market makers.
They aren't gonna like that.
Be ready for fuckery, and expect some moments of pain and discomfort.
Remind and steel yourselves for the possibility that anyone short on $PROG is pissed. If they have money, they may try to double down and punish the stock.
It's the nature of the game.
Hold your conviction.
On the flip side, this ticker just witnessed more than 80,000 call options go from OTM to ITM in a single day.
That's HUGE.
8,000,000 shares huge, in fact.
At this point, with this many calls ITM, there's a solid chance we see the gamma truly get ridiculous tomorrow.
Early exercising of options absolutely kicked shorts in the teeth today, and now that over 150k calls are ITM today, early exercising of any and all of these options will force whoever sold these calls to buy shares at market price if they aren't covered.
That means more buying.
Not financial advice, but if you believe that there is a solid chance we can #SqueezePROG to unimaginable highs and you're holding ITM calls, it behooves you to exercise them while they are ITM and take advantage of the momentum.
I'm planning to do the same thing with mine.
Any calls I cannot exercise due to lack of funds, I plan to roll out to December/January because I don't consider this even close to over.
This call chain is gonna go so deep ITM Adelle herself would roll in it, but only if the vast majority of shareholders in $PROG hold fast.
There is already 8M shares worth of calls ITM on the call chain right now, and the more of them that get exercised early, the better chance #PROGGERS stand to watch the remaining $5-7.50 strikes go ITM too.
It's a self-perpetuating cycle, and the math works out in bulls favor.
As always, none of this is financial advice. I'm simply reporting the math and the possible scenarios.
InvestorPlace was spitting out FUD articles all weekend for a reason. I don't care what anyone says. I believe they got paid to shit on $PROG because someone is losing big.
I say we make sure that the time & money they spent pouring hate on $PROG is wasted.
See you all in the morning. Enjoy the AH action.
Best of luck to everyone. May the force be with you.
Correction. 15M shares worth of calls.
The 8M is just in addition to the 6.9M shares worth of calls that were already ITM.
P.S.
Looks like we're crushing AH.
I told ya'll to enjoy the AH action, didn't I? 😂
I'm going to cover one last item on $PROG today. I was looking at the Unusual Whales FLOW that Hootmoney posted, and there is definitely something happening here.
The OI on $5 and $7.5 calls for $PROG went absolutely nuts in the afternoon today, and I only just noticed.
Almost all of the bearish volume came from selling call options at the end of the day, which I STRONGLY suspect is being done in order to quickly secure premium and scalp some cash before the options expire.
This is a very common action, but for it to happen in these numbers...
... holy shit. There are 111,295 calls OTM on $PROG between $5 and $7.50
That's a combined 11.13M shares on the table.
Those weren't there this morning.
A fair amount of these may be retail, but many times more are likely coming from market makers & HFs.
This error happens so frequently in trading that it has actually caused squeeze events because a stock rallied, and in the FOMO scramble, other stocks with similar tickers have rocketed with them.
This is a really good way to lose money just because you didn't spell check your ticker symbol.
Make sure you know where your money is going before you hit that buy button.
$PROG OTC/Darkpool activity indicates that algos and institutions are the main responsible parties for this price action today.
We continue to see tons of selling pressure routing to the exchanges whilst.
Reminder to use directed market orders to send your busy to the exchange.
This is a speculative explanation, but I have noticed that because of the plethora of available shares in dark pools, it seems likely that MMs will buy large sums of shares in DPs to grab an inventory of shares on the cheap.
This allows MMs to fulfill buy orders from their inventory instead of buying on the exchange, preventing the NBBO from being affected. Meanwhile, they can route any sells directly to the exchanges on a selective basis to create the illusion of massive selling volume.
For those that like to daytrade on ETFs, $IWM is severely oversold, and @unusual_whales flow is obscenely bullish following this dip.
An alert was fired for a whale buy on the $253 calls expiring 12/10, which are surprisingly cheap at $0.35 on the ask side.
Darkpool volume📈💥
Looks like a nice reversal incoming for the Russell.
It's always a good idea to have some side plays going to earn you a little bit of money, and if you're one of the #AMCAPES, betting on the Russell indirectly helps #AMC as well as it's part of that ETF.
I had a tiny bit of buying power left after I finished exercising my $PROG calls, and wanted to jump on something a bit more... diversified?
Just a nice little swing trade on the side that I noticed looks pretty juicy, so I'm gonna follow that whale.
I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that $PROG will announce an offering, even at these prices, before they or their biopharma partner announce the terms of their partnership, as both parties know it will cause a jump in value.
Even if a dilution comes, there is only 13m shares available to offer, and Athyrium has been scooping up every single offering that wasn't direct to market.
There aren't enough shares available to do any real damage & the offering would be bought within 3 days at this volume.
Suffice to say, I'm not even remotely worried about dilution. Even if it happens, I'll just set limit buys and get more shares at a discount.
It won't be enough to destroy a squeeze if retail simply holds and buys.