significant movements in trade - but seem to reflect more impact of Brexit generally in incentivising Irish importers to shift from British suppliers to NI suppliers. RoI exports better now. GB exports to RoI not so.
No GB-NI data make it tricky to conclude stuff re Protocol.
NI boom in exports to Republic underpinned by yesterdays excellent payrolls data here in Belfast - fastest growth in UK. Major pharma exporters are marketing themselves as single stop place to get regulatory approval for UK and EU…
There clearly are problems with Protocol as well in terms of supplies from Great Britain to Northern Ireland (is within the UK) - with more checks to come next year - it’s just there is little actual data to quantify scale of the issue.
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Important to remember that the original Benefit Cost Ratio justification for HS2 nearly a decade ago only yielded a medium-high reading of up to 1.9 times as much benefit on basis of full Y network - the first phase alone put it at 1.4 officially in “low” value for money category
Also when talking about “#levellingup” always helpful context to refer to the relevant Treasury tables that breakdown existing spending by region/ nation…
Per capita Government spend on railway services across nations and regions… this is per capita:
From the IRP - that is a considerable benefit for Manchester (1hr 11 mins) over Leeds (1 hr 53 mins) in terms of time into the capital - currently both 2 hours 10 mins away, and for connectivity of Nottingham to both London and Birmingham… Brum-Notts becomes commutable.
NEW just interviewed the Chancellor Rishi Sunak about GDP, living standards, Article 16, Geoffrey Cox and whether taxpayers’ funding was used to guarantee loyalty of MPs in votes…
1. OBR and Bank of England forecasts show decline in living standards over next two years?
“what you're seeing is an economy that is continuing to grow. And that is a good thing. We're on the right path. But of course there are global challenges ahead…”
2. Net result of all of your measures BoE/OBR see two years of declining living standards after inflation and tax?
Chancellor: “what it doesn't include is the spending on public services and that does bring value to people's lives… We need to make sure that it's well spent …”
Chancellor says this Budget does not “draw a line under Covid” still “challenging months ahead”.... But he says “today’s Budget does begin the work of preparing for a new economy post Covid. The Prime Minister’s economy of higher wages, higher skills, and rising productivity”
Chancellor says OBR predicts average inflation of 4% over next year and the “pressures caused by supply chains and energy prices will take months to ease. It would be irresponsible for anyone to pretend that we can solve this overnight”
Chancellor speaking to Andrew Marr... says there will be “investment across the board” in public services on Wednesday - suggesting some top ups to those unprotected areas set for immediate further squeezes
Marr asks Chancellor if workers should take PMs words and ask their bosses for a pay rise... he points out that real wages are higher than pre pandemic, concludes “in order to make it sustainable we must invest in skills”
“Believe me I wish I didn’t have to raise taxes” Chancellor says to Marr... also articulates the argument I wrote about last month - that the income tax rise would have to be 2p in £, whereas with NI its 1.25p for both employers and employees...
On comparative Covid picture - interesting thing, noticed by pretty senior UK officials too, about being in Washington DC last week, was it felt like being transported back to UK early spring.
Everyone wearing masks indoors, many outside too...
And just whole town feeling empty
DC has broadly comparable vaccination rates - partial - 72% vs 73%, full 60% vs 67%... but completely different in relation to opening up. Goes to show what many economists stressed - lifting lockdowns is one thing, people to have confidence to end voluntary social distancing too
There are relatively few people able to make such comparisons because ordinary travel to US from UK still just about banned until November, we were allowed under State Dept exemption...
Perhaps its consequence of POTUS focus on caution/ masks etc ...