The largest offset in the Build Back Better Act is not a tax increase. Instead, it is an $80 billion investment to restore a depleted IRS.

@USTreasury expects this transformative investment to generate $480 B — $400 B net — in addtl tax collections over course of next decade.
That is a large sum. But it's important to put it into context given the scope of the tax evasion problem faced by fed govt. Over next 10 yrs, IRS is on track to collect $7 T less than is owed. This enormous tax gap is around 3% of gross domestic product on an annualized basis
Today, the IRS has about the same number of auditors as it did during World War II, and the IRS can answer fewer than 30 percent of the phone calls it receives from taxpayers with questions.
IRS technology is woefully outdated, and it fails to allow for even simple data analytics to identify evaders. Providing the IRS the resources it needs will go a long way towards shrinking the tax gap.
Yet the Congressional Budget Office is soon to release its estimate of these efforts, which it is likely to score at netting less than half the Treasury number — some experts expect the final CBO estimate to be around $150 billion.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lawrence H. Summers

Lawrence H. Summers Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LHSummers

18 Nov
CBO estimate for tax-compliance efforts is conservative to the point of implausibility.

Assuming Admin is successfully able to develop & implement sound plans for IRS, I'm confident the proposed investments can generate more revenue than CBO assumes.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Although the CBO has not disclosed its methodology in detail, I base my conviction on three considerations.

First, as best as can be discerned, the CBO assumes significant diminishing returns.
The Administration's proposal calls strongly for focusing new enforcement resources on the high end, where underpayments are greatest.
Read 7 tweets
15 Nov
Opinion | On inflation, it’s past time for team ‘transitory’ to stand down

Read my column on inflation and four policy prescriptions we need to do now.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
There is a wise apocryphal saying often attributed to Keynes: When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? After yrs of advocating more expansionary fiscal & monetary policy, I altered my view. I believe Admin & Fed. need to further adjust their thinking on inflation.
First, let’s not compound errors that have already been made with far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy by rejecting Build Back Better. The legislation would spend less over 10 yrs than was spent on stimulus in 2021.
Read 10 tweets
14 Nov
@paulkrugman continues his efforts to minimize the inflation threat to the American economy and progressive politics by pointing to the fact that inflation surged and then there was a year of deflation after World War 2.
If this is the best argument for not being alarmed that someone as smart, rhetorically effective and committed as Paul can make, my anxiety about inflation is increased.
Pervasive price controls were removed after the war. Economists know that measured prices with controls are artificial, so subsequent inflation proves little.
Read 7 tweets
14 Nov
John Authers reviews the various measures and arguments used to minimize inflation over the last 9 months and concludes the argument is over. He is right. His piece should be required reading at the Fed Board of Governors, Treasury and White House.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
It’s not base year effects. Two-year inflation rates from before Covid now aberrantly high.

It’s not just a few components. Mean, trimmed mean, median, specially selected core measures are all way up.
It’s not just mean reverting transitory components. Sticky price measures aberrantly up as well.
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
@USTreasury concludes $80B of funding to IRS will result in $400B in additional revenue for IRS over the decade. This is most significant offset in BBB package & one I am thrilled to see included. I have long believed robust attack on tax gap first order for tax reform efforts
If anything, @USTreasury estimates are conservative. @NatashaRSarin and I estimated that a $100B investment in the IRS focused on high-end enforcement (like Admin proposal is) would generate $800B+ over the course of the decade, outside of info reporting, which raises even more.
Our estimates are lower than those of former Commissioners Charles Rossotti and Fred Goldberg ($1.6T), who have also written in this space.
shrinkthetaxgap.com/reform-proposa…
Read 8 tweets
25 Oct
When the Administration formulated its budget in February, it expected 2 percent inflation in 2021, I was warning about inflation. Their forecast is no longer operative.
In May and June, @SecYellen expressed confidence that inflation would be back to the 2 percent range by late 2021 or early 2022. Now this forecast is no longer operative.
In @CNN interview, @SecYellen asserts twice that inflation has decelerated. This is a bit misleading as the 3 month and 12 month CPI inflation rates are both around 5 percent on an annual basis.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(