Thread by @ElbridgeColby

This argument doesn’t survive the most basic scrutiny. Bottom line: I’d recommend checking out the Biden Administration’s report on China’s military buildup in the context of last twenty years. Decide for yourself whether it’s a serious thing.

media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/20…

https://twitter.com/heerjeet/status/1461891263536447492

Also FWIW I’m not really a hawk on North Korea so gives you a sense of how much the argument travels.

Logically, it’s not at all clear that more proximate states will always see the threat clearer, especially small ones with limited analytic capacity. Were 1939 the Netherlands and Denmark more “hawkish” on Germany than Churchill? They were more immediately threatened.

To get a sense of how much things have changed, check out what the nonpartisan FFRDC @RANDCorporation assessed half a decade ago. You can (kinda) argue the PRC won’t use its newfound power but you can’t credibly argue with its reality.

rand.org/content/dam/ra…