The claim of @DeborahLyonsUN that the self-declared Islamic State — Khorasan Province (#ISKP#DaeshKhorasan) "now seems to be present in nearly all provinces [of #Afghanistan]" is alarmist and NOT supported by any evidence. (1/4)
While there have been ISKP claims in provinces where ISKP has previously not been active, this is the exception NOT the rule. Rumours from other provinces are often highly doubtful and have at times even been disproved. And such rumours do NOT cover “nearly all provinces”. (2/4)
That said, there are credible indications that @DeborahLyonsUN and @unafghanistan are basing their claims on highly questionable sources and are swift to attribute activities to ISKP without critically questioning information — which is always a must in the Afghan context.(3/4)
This is not to say that ISKP does not pose a problem in Afghanistan. The group and its trajectory should be taken seriously & closely monitored — but based on factual evidence and sober ground research & analysis, not alarmist jumps to inaccurate conclusions. (4/4)
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The article itself states that “[t]he #Taliban have not yet entered the area with force” and only mentions some Taliban “envoys”. Both statements are true, as a man in the Little Pamir to whom I spoke directly today confirmed. HOWEVER (…) (2/5)
(…) the man in the Little Pamir also said that these envoys only stayed briefly and have left again and that, as of today, everything is calm and fine in the Little Pamir. (3/5)
One of several problems with the @LongWarJournal@billroggio#Taliban Control Map is that it heavily relies on media reports that often cover the fall of a district to the Taliban, but NOT the recapture by the Afghan government—which leads to a more than distorted result.(1/10)
For example, Baghlan-e Markazi in Baghlan fell only briefly to the Taliban, but was recapture within less than a day although fighting is still under way. The same applies to Dahan-e Ghori in Baghlan and Farsi in Herat. (2/10)
Chapa Dara in Kunar is not fully Taliban-controlled; I was there in late March. Surkhrud and Khogyani in Nangarhar are also not fully Taliban-controlled; again, I have been in these districts recently. (3/10)