Completely unconnected with events unfolding in eastern Europe. Of course! you say. Except it's not. Because if the unthinkable happens, then @DFCavalryCorps could be engaging with Russian VDV, marines and GRU spetsnaz on Irish soil as early as summer 2022. A scenario: 1/🧵
https://twitter.com/DFCavalryCorps/status/1462056870349320192
How so? you ask. Russia appears intent on invading Ukraine. Ukraine will fight, Russia can't afford to lose, war will spread, NATO forces are likely to be drawn in if combat crosses Ukraine's borders into NATO countries. But that's nowhere near Ireland! you say. However. 2/
A conventional war between Russia and Allied (Ukraine, US, EU, NATO) forces on the eastern flank will automatically bring into play the western Atlantic flank of Europe: Ireland's controlled air, sea and land territory is one-fifth of that flank. It will be contested space. 3/
To put it simply, any large-scale war in Europe will require transatlantic resupply and reinforcements from the US and Canada. Russia will do everything it can to slow, hinder and prevent that by controlling the airspace and sea space (surface and subsurface) west of Ireland. 4/
Russian submarines plus surface ships and aircraft missile platforms would attempt to sink shipping and down Allied aircraft. But Allied navies & air forces would attempt to kill Russian platforms. Therefore, Ireland's landmass would come into play out of strategic necessity. 5/
But Ireland is neutral (or at least non-aligned)! you cry. Ukraine was in effect neutral before 2014. Didn't stop Russia from going to war there, did it. Do you really think the Putin regime, which doesn't hold back from bombing hospitals in Syria, would spare Ireland? 6/
You may not like to hear it, but there are three primary strategic targets (plenty more secondary ones) that feature in Russian General Staff planning for the Atlantic flank or theatre of war: Shannon Airport, Cork Harbour and Berehaven Harbour. Why these? you ask. 7/
Shannon Airport because it is a known transit infrastructure for NATO troops crossing the North Atlantic. Denial of it to NATO is a high priority. Plus, Shannon Airport could serve as a base for Russian Il-78 aerial refueling tankers to service long-range aviation. 8/
Cork Harbour because it is a sheltered and defensible deep-water anchorage: Russia would ensure it is denied to Allied navies and merchant ships. It could be used to service Russian Navy vessels. Haulbowline Naval Base would be useful infrastructure to control. 9/
Berehaven Harbour in West Cork (Bantry Bay) likewise is a deep-water and defensible anchorage. Denying oppositional use and retaining it for shelter for Russian naval operations west of Ireland. Berehaven was used by US Navy and Royal Navy last century. 10/
There are other potential targets for Russian seize-hold operations across Ireland's west, including other airfields, harbours, oil storage depots etc. 11/
Any ops would require relatively small numbers of troops (50-200 per target) making such tasks ideal for Russian Airborne (VDV) and Naval Infantry (marines) plus intelligence special forces (GRU spetsnaz). How they get here without being shot down or sunk is another matter. 12/
But our Defence Forces can deal with 200 Russians! you say. First, it will be more likely 1,500 (ish) troops inserted over several strategic locations. The Russians will fight, using offshore and stand-off missile platforms if they meet resistance. This raises some questions: 13/
First, assuming that Russian Armed Forces have the element of surprise (shock due to "neutrality" and unpreparedness) and seize all their intended objectives, do the Irish Defence Forces have enough troops to counter such operations? Do they have the capabilities? 14/
Will Government give orders to engage in combat? The kill ratio will be heavily in favour of the Russian occupiers. Would Government allow 10, 100, 1000 or more Defence Forces casualties? Or would Government in effect capitulate to prevent loss of lives (incl civilians)? 15/
I think you already suspect the answers. You are not alone. Russian General Staff planners update their plans with daily intelligence gathered along the entire Atlantic flank, from Norway to Portugal. They long ago identified Ireland is the key vulnerability or weak spot. 16/
Russia's Embassy in Dublin reports back regularly to Moscow (the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence) with assessments of the public mood, Government's resolve and Defence Forces' capabilities. We all know that the Irish undervalue defence, which is almost non-existent. 17/
So, you might expect NATO flights and ships to reroute to avoid Irish controlled waters and airspace? Not so easy when there's a war going on. Or Britain's Royal Air Force and Royal Navy to protect us? They may be preoccupied with their own fights elsewhere. 18/
There's no certainty about this scenario, though it is a well planned, wargamed and red-teamed scenario on both sides. Apart from the likelihood of the entire Atlantic flank of Europe becoming hotly contested space in the event of war. That means Ireland too. End/
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
