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Andy Scollick Profile picture
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16 Nov, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Peddling the Moscow-Minsk line that poor old Lukashenko's border troops and KGB goons "can't control the crowds .. it's anything but orchestrated" - a narrative currently emerging across LukaPutin social media channels. 🍸🥒
Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Exhibit C
Any more for vodka and gherkins?

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Andy Scollick Profile picture
18 Nov
Joe Murray, coordinator of 🇮🇪 NGO @AfriPeace, is correct in stating that the global defence sector (militaries, industry and ministries) have a large carbon footprint. However, he is disingenuous in using that fact to undermine Ireland's defence sector. 🧵irishexaminer.com/opinion/commen…
First, the militaries of the US, UK, Netherlands, Slovenia, New Zealand, Ireland and others are leading efforts to decarbonise bases, operations and vehicles in order to reduce their carbon footrprints in line with public sector "net zero" targets. This will be evident at #COP27
It's early days, but their ambitions are genuine: reducing reliance on fossil fuels has significant cost savings and operational advantages as well as addressing national climate action responsibilities. Soldiers have families too. No one wants climate change.
Read 12 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
18 Nov
"Russia's harsh response - after Hultqvist's message"

Swedish troops can train in Ukraine in the future, according to Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist.

Now the Russian embassy is responding - with a reference to the battle of Poltava in 1709. expressen.se/nyheter/ryssla… 1/
"Poltava's descendants, however, do not seem to have learned proper lessons from past battles with Russia, which has already overthrown Sweden from its great power heights," the embassy wrote on Facebook. 2/
On Tuesday, Hultqvist told Swedish Radio Ekot that Sweden may participate in military exercises in Ukraine, which is in conflict with Russia.

The Baltic countries proposed the exercise, after reports came in that Russia had equipped itself at the border with Ukraine. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
16 Nov
Entretien téléphonique avec M. Vladimir Poutine, Président de la Fédération de Russie 🇫🇷 (Telephone interview with Mr. Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation) via @Elysee elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
❗️Absolutely nothing about Macron telling Putin that #France with defend the territorial integrity of #Ukraine

Google translation 🇬🇧 www-elysee-fr.translate.goog/emmanuel-macro…
Macron 'expressed to his counterpart his deep concern over developments in the Ukrainian situation. He encouraged his counterpart to play a constructive role within the framework of the Normandy format, by rapidly resuming the dialogue likely to reduce tensions.'
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
3 Feb
Regarding the controversial "Zima-20" ("Winter-20") Polish command staff war-gaming exercises that allegedly resulted in a simulated defeat of Polish Armed Forces in 5 days: Lot of folks focussing on mass (opposing force, OPFOR) but overlooking kinetics (reaction rates). 1/
Russia has intrinsic element of surprise. Assuming that a) NATO intel (remote sensing, SIGINT etc) has picked up on a degree of preparations; b) some degree of Russian field exerices are planned as cover; and c) Poland-NATO/US alert level is raised a notch. 2/
Nevertheless, a sudden switch to offensive mode will be a shock. Institutional inertia both in Poland and across NATO gives Russia a vital 96-hour (4 days) window to cross the border and seize/hold strategic locations & overwhelm defensive units before they can be reinforced. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
2 Feb
Some further information regarding the "Zima-20" ("Winter-20") command staff exercises, which allegedly resulted in a defeat for Polish forces during a simulated (war-gamed) Russian attack 1/
The official website of the President of Poland (27 Jan) states that 'Several thousand officers participated in the exercise "ZIMA-20", whose scenarios and details are secret, as well as political factors.' translate.google.com/translate?sl=p…

Original in Polish: prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wy… 2/
Andrzej Duda said: "Today we talked about it in detail: how the exercise went, what are the initial recommendations from it. .. 3/

Translation: …izla--www-prezydent-pl.translate.goog/aktualnosci/wy…

Original: prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wy…
Read 16 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
2 Feb
"The defeat of the Polish army in a simulated war. The exercise proved defeat in five days"

Caveat: I can't vouch for the source or accuracy of this report or translation

Google Translate 1/ translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…
The military exercises "Winter-20" ended in disaster and a complete disaster. The simulation showed that after five days the war was lost and the Polish army ceased to exist, Interia informs. 2/
The simulations took into account new weapons systems ordered by Poland - although not yet delivered

The fierce defense of the east of Poland resulted in the destruction of the units there and huge losses 3/
Read 16 tweets

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