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21 Nov, 3 tweets, 2 min read
New @KekstCNC polling in today’s @thesundaytimes.

Despite weeks of bad headlines and Europe lockdowns, the number of Brits who want the govt to protect the economy over limiting the spread of the virus is at its highest yet - a huge shift on a year ago.

thetimes.co.uk/article/will-b…
There is also little appetite for more drastic restrictions.

Though people continue to back vaccine passports, 46% oppose a lockdown for unvaccinated people and a majority opposes early closing hours for pubs and restaurants. (2/3)
As I say in @tomhcalver’s piece, the British public seem content with the status quo on Britain’s Covid policy for now. (3/3)

Full article: thetimes.co.uk/article/will-b…

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More from @jamesjohnson252

James Johnson Profile picture
6 Nov
Until there is a credible alternative to the Conservatives, people will not abandon Boris Johnson in droves.

New @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @DailyMailUK:

- Tories lead by 6 points on competence, no change since July

- Labour ahead by only 2 points on ‘shares your values’

(1)
- Labour seen as more divided by 32 points, up 6 since July

- Who is doing better job overall at the moment? Boris 41%, Keir 27%

- Tories seen as more out of touch than Labour by 15 points, but no change since July

- Awareness of scandal much lower than Barnard Castle

(2/3)
The polls might narrow and fluctuate but until voters believe that alternative exists, they won’t change their minds for the long-term.

Sleaze could really damage Tories *once* they lose trust of electorate on another issue (see Black Wednesday), but isn’t happening yet.

(3/3)
Read 4 tweets
James Johnson Profile picture
17 Oct
NEW @KekstCNC Covid polling in @thesundaytimes

Covid attitudes have shifted.

The number of people who want the government to limit the spread of the virus at all costs has fallen, while protecting the economy (even if it means more virus) has become more prominent. (1/5)
In April 2020, protecting the economy - even if it meant more hospitalisations and deaths - was a very niche, near-heretical opinion.

Now, with the vaccine rollout and the cost of living biting, the gap between the two priorities has fallen from 61 points to just 8. (2/5)
There are other signs of a turn against lockdown. We asked people which restrictions they would support if hospitals came under significant pressure in the winter.

Only 16% backed a return to school and shop closures - and no other hard measure got more than 50% backing. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
James Johnson Profile picture
7 May
*NEW: @JLPartnersPolls on why people voted the way they did, for @Channel4News*

The top reason given for not voting Labour on Thursday was Keir Starmer’s leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. (1/9)
A representative sample of 1,741 adults in England were asked just before & on Polling Day the main reason they voted.

Asked why they did not vote Labour, the top words written were “policies”, “Starmer”, “leader” and people saying they “don’t trust” the party. (2/9)
Concerns about Starmer focus on him being weak, opportunistic, and not standing for anything.

Here is a representative selection of the things they said. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
James Johnson Profile picture
30 Mar
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: Red Wall tracker

The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.

The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15)
As before, we polled a representative sample of voters on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 and 2016 vote in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour in 2019.

The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)
That means it’s CON 47% (+6 on Nov), LAB 43% (-4).

In 2019 the Tories led by 9 points, so this still means a small swing to Labour.

On these numbers, Labour is projected to gain 18 of 45 seats. But CON hold 27, compared to a projected loss of all but 9 seats last time. (3/15)
Read 19 tweets
James Johnson Profile picture
3 Dec 20
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the 1st poll of the Red Wall since the Election

In 2019 the Tories led by 48% to 39%. Now Labour leads by 47% to 41%

On a uniform swing, that means the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats we polled (1/11)

channel4.com/news/exclusive…
We polled a representative sample-on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote-in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It shows that, a year on, there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives. (2/11)
The Conservative vote share – 41% - looks respectable, but small margins matter in many of these tight seats.

The Party is only retaining 70% of its 2019 vote – with almost 1 in 10 switching direct to Labour, and around 1 in 6 saying they don’t know how they would vote (3/11) Image
Read 11 tweets
James Johnson Profile picture
9 Apr 20
New J.L. Partners poll for @timesredbox shows the virus is already changing public views, and these are not necessarily going to just disappear afterwards.

First on China, 48% of Brits say they feel more negative, 43% the same, and 3% more positive - a net change of -45. (1/6)
Now look at the NHS, the biggest 'winner' in terms of public positivity.

An enormous 74% feel more positive, 22% about the same, and 2% (within the margin of error of zero) feel less positive. (2/6)
Important to note that on a lot of these, majorities feel the same as before. But there are some interesting marginal effects.

54% feel the same as before about the police, but 34% feel more positive with only 9% feeling more negative than before: a net improvement of +25. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets

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