Thread by @jamesjohnson252

NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the 1st poll of the Red Wall since the Election

In 2019 the Tories led by 48% to 39%. Now Labour leads by 47% to 41%

On a uniform swing, that means the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats we polled (1/11)

channel4.com/news/exclusive…

We polled a representative sample-on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote-in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It shows that, a year on, there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives. (2/11)

The Conservative vote share – 41% - looks respectable, but small margins matter in many of these tight seats.

The Party is only retaining 70% of its 2019 vote – with almost 1 in 10 switching direct to Labour, and around 1 in 6 saying they don’t know how they would vote (3/11)

Why is this?

It’s about values and fears about the ‘same old Tories’. The Conservatives are now seen as more out of touch than Labour in these seats (by 8 points), and are seen as less likely to ‘stand up for people like me’ (by 16 points). (4/11)

The poll shows this is fuelled by two major things.

1) A lack of clarity throughout the pandemic on coronavirus and coronavirus restrictions (net +47% agree)

2) Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle and what this says about the Conservative Party (net +41% agree)

(5/11)

When asked what their main hesitations are about voting Conservative, Red Wall voters, these are the main things that come through: a concern the Party does not represent ordinary people, and Boris Johnson’s leadership

This is similar amongst 2019 Conservative voters

(6/11)

But Labour are in no way home and dry. Asked about their hesitations for voting Labour, Red Wall voters express doubts about their management of the economy, being too left-wing, and their stance on immigration.

(7/11)

The Tories are seen as doing quite well on a range of issues: defence, Brexit, economy, rebuilding after the virus

They lag behind on public services and housing, but it shows just how much of this is voters judging a party’s values rather than individual policies

(8/11)

But there is concern about levelling up – 62% are not confident the government would deliver on levelling up the North and Midlands by 2024, including 43% of 2019 Tory voters

And almost half say the Govt is giving no more attention to these regions than previous ones

(9/11)

Finally, how does the Red Wall view political figures?

The most popular politician in the Red Wall is Rishi Sunak (+33% net positivity). People are neutral about the performance of their new Tory MP.

Priti Patel is the least popular, with a net rating of –34%.

(10/11)

This is the 1st wave of this Red Wall tracker, giving updates on how the seats are feeling/thinking about the issues of the day

More info, the full report, list of seats lost & tables at jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall

@Channel4News report and 7pm on C4: channel4.com/news/exclusive… (11/11)