*NEW: @JLPartnersPolls on why people voted the way they did, for @Channel4News*

The top reason given for not voting Labour on Thursday was Keir Starmer’s leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. (1/9)
A representative sample of 1,741 adults in England were asked just before & on Polling Day the main reason they voted.

Asked why they did not vote Labour, the top words written were “policies”, “Starmer”, “leader” and people saying they “don’t trust” the party. (2/9)
Concerns about Starmer focus on him being weak, opportunistic, and not standing for anything.

Here is a representative selection of the things they said. (3/9)
Of those who voted Lab in 2019, but voted for other parties yesterday, 17% say they did so to vote tactically. But 16% also cite Starmer's leadership.

A defector to the Greens said “Keir Starmer is a weak leader”. A 29-year old former Lab voter said “they have no policies” (4/9)
Looking at why people voted Conservative, competence is key.

Voters said they voted for them because they had done a good job, had performed well during the pandemic, and that they like Boris Johnson. (5/9)
Those who did vote Labour did so because they say the party shares their values, or that they are the only way to beat the Conservatives.

Only 1% said it was because they like Keir Starmer. (6/9)
Finally, looking at those who voted for smaller parties and independents, the top reason was because of a good candidate locally.

The environment, as well as dissatisfaction with the main parties, also saw voters going over to the Greens. (7/9)
This might suggest that support for smaller parties could go down at a future general election, if Labour can squeeze them.

But there is no doubt that Labour’s brand is besieged from every angle. (8/9)
They are seen as divided, bad for the economy, lacking policies, not left enough for the Left and too left for the Right – & the leadership is their biggest drawback.

Tune into @channel4news now for @GaryGibbonC4 package - and full results here: jlpartners.co.uk/local-elections (9/9)

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More from @jamesjohnson252

30 Mar
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: Red Wall tracker

The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.

The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15)
As before, we polled a representative sample of voters on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 and 2016 vote in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour in 2019.

The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)
That means it’s CON 47% (+6 on Nov), LAB 43% (-4).

In 2019 the Tories led by 9 points, so this still means a small swing to Labour.

On these numbers, Labour is projected to gain 18 of 45 seats. But CON hold 27, compared to a projected loss of all but 9 seats last time. (3/15)
Read 19 tweets
3 Dec 20
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the 1st poll of the Red Wall since the Election

In 2019 the Tories led by 48% to 39%. Now Labour leads by 47% to 41%

On a uniform swing, that means the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats we polled (1/11)

channel4.com/news/exclusive…
We polled a representative sample-on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote-in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It shows that, a year on, there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives. (2/11)
The Conservative vote share – 41% - looks respectable, but small margins matter in many of these tight seats.

The Party is only retaining 70% of its 2019 vote – with almost 1 in 10 switching direct to Labour, and around 1 in 6 saying they don’t know how they would vote (3/11) Image
Read 11 tweets
9 Apr 20
New J.L. Partners poll for @timesredbox shows the virus is already changing public views, and these are not necessarily going to just disappear afterwards.

First on China, 48% of Brits say they feel more negative, 43% the same, and 3% more positive - a net change of -45. (1/6)
Now look at the NHS, the biggest 'winner' in terms of public positivity.

An enormous 74% feel more positive, 22% about the same, and 2% (within the margin of error of zero) feel less positive. (2/6)
Important to note that on a lot of these, majorities feel the same as before. But there are some interesting marginal effects.

54% feel the same as before about the police, but 34% feel more positive with only 9% feeling more negative than before: a net improvement of +25. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov 19
I’ve written a new piece for @timesredbox

If YouGov is right, it will be best Tory result in 30+ years

This will be hailed as a Grand Realignment - CON gaining the working classes and rewriting the electoral map

But this is too hasty a conclusion. (1/5)
thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
Why?

First, CON gains may be in Labour Leave seats but they are winning them because LAB is falling.

Look at these 3 Tory gains from YouGov MRP:

Great Grimsby: CON share in 2017 was 42%, now it’s still 42%
Don Valley: 2017 42%, now 42%
Dudley North: 2017 46%, now 46%

(2/5)
Second, new voters CON are winning (they’re getting some that are offsetting BXP losses) are instinctively Labour.

Get Brexit Done + Corbyn unlocks them. Remove, and NHS/cost of living dominate. Focus groups show they haven’t changed their minds on CON intentions on these (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
31 Oct 19
I’ve done some polling for @thetimes looking at how voters feel about the Oct 31st deadline being missed.

Most strikingly, *half* of Leave voters say they feel “betrayed” by extension. This is substantially higher than at previous extensions.

thetimes.co.uk/article/genera…
1/6
Here’s the graph for Remain and Leave voters. In addition to the betrayed figure, 57% of Leave voters feel “disappointed” by the fact we are no longer leaving on 31st October. 2/6
But does it matter? There is vulnerability for CON – but no one is taking advantage of it.

1. Brexit Party using arguments on the deal instead of 31/10
2. CON dominating Leave narrative
3. Farage AWOL and @SebastianEPayne story yday suggests BXP may not stand everywhere
3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Jul 19
I’ve written a piece for today’s @timesredbox @thetimes, setting out thoughts on my time running private polling at Downing St and the challenges the Conservatives face - including why it is a high-risk strategy to pursue older Leave voters alone (1/7) thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/c…
I presented to Cabinet on the 2017 Election results (1 called it ‘the most depressing thing I’ve ever heard in this room’) and said we should pursue ‘Conservative Considerers’ - older and winnable working class voters, who wouldn’t vote CON in 17 coz of public services (2/7)
This was and shld be a key group for the Conservatives. But now many of them are tempted by the Brexit Party. like in 2015 CON has to look for votes elsewhere; there simply might not be enough Leavers up for grabs in seats that matter (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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